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‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics

‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics. Cheshire & Warrington Sub-regional Conference 11 July 2014. Content. What are the shared challenges? Where are we now? What can we do? Case study – alcohol use. What are the shared challenges?. Increased demand. We’re changing Aging population

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‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics

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  1. ‘Imagining 2020’: key demographics Cheshire & Warrington Sub-regional Conference 11 July 2014

  2. Content • What are the shared challenges? • Where are we now? • What can we do? • Case study – alcohol use

  3. What are the shared challenges? Increased demand • We’re changing • Aging population • Becoming heavier • Drinking more • Stress • Result • Increase in long term conditions • Increased use of services Services Financial constraints

  4. Example from Cheshire East 199220122031 Births 4186 4013 ↓ 9.6% Deaths 3780 3420 ↓ 9.0% Population 342k 371k ↑ 8.3% Smokers 28% 17% ↓ 40% Heart adm. 1347 1209 ↓ 10% Lung cancer 216 246 ↑ 14% Bowel cancer 160 267 ↑ 67% 374 Breast cancer 165 323 ↑ 96% 481 Diabetics 5581 17268 ↑ 309% 28955 Drug users 319 1139 ↑ 380% 1959 During the next twenty years there will be substantial rises in the number of people over 80, and fewer people aged 30 to 55

  5. Implications of an aging population • More dementia • Increased cancer • Increased comorbidity • Loss of function

  6. : Warrington • In 2012, 6.8% adults estimated to have diabetes, • by 2020, if current trends continue this could be 7.6% • by 2030, 8.5%

  7. Cancer key facts- Cheshire East 44% rise in cancer over next 10 years (ageing and PREVENTABLElifestyle factors) 13/15th when compared to similar LAs Early detection of cancer may not be improving Challenge of Bowel Screening

  8. Where are we now? • April 2012 – the All Party Parliamentary Group on Primary Care & Public Health held a roundtable discussion on: Ten years on from Wanless, how “fully-engaged” are we? • some success in meeting smoking cessation targets • but a rise in other serious public health challenges (obesity, alcohol) • huge reductions in treatment waiting times (although is this changing?) • but GP consultation rates have risen as people still do not self-care • no shift in resources out of hospitals • no switch of activity from GPs to pharmacies • we still do not have no good information to support personal decisions and the ability to have consistency of care • ‘’ the rhetoric of engagement has risen – but paternalistic services continue and the public remains dependent on these’’

  9. What can we do???? • Move from cure to prevention • People at the centre, instead of “what's the matter” ask “what matters to you” • Healthy people, healthy place, healthy communities • Healthy policy (health equity and health impact) • Collaboration (service improvement, efficiency, resilience) • Agree priorities for action

  10. Making the most of the opportunities Case study: Alcohol

  11. Alcohol Use – Trends in Related Harm

  12. Alcohol misuse harms families and communities(source: PHE)

  13. Alcohol Use – The response(source: PHE)

  14. The Response - Prevention(source: PHE)

  15. The Response - Partnership(source: PHE)

  16. Questions and comments ? Eileen O’Meara Director of Public Health and Public Protection Department Halton Borough Council / Runcorn Town Hall / Heath Road / Runcorn / Cheshire / WA7 5TD Email: Eileen.omeara@halton.gov.uk Tel : 0151 511 6848

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