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Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo

18 th ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL EMME/2 USERS’ CONFERENCE. ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS: San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways. Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo. Mexico City, October 2004.

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Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo

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  1. 18th ANNUAL INTERNATIONAL EMME/2 USERS’ CONFERENCE ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED TRAFFIC ANALYSIS:San Luis Potosí – Bledos – Villa de Arriaga and San Luis Potosí – Cerritos – Río Verde Highways Santín Martínez Gabriela Segura Herrera Eduardo Mexico City, October 2004

  2. TOLL ROAD CHARACTERISTICS • Length: 76 km • Speed: 100 km/hr • Section: 12 m La Pila Villa de Arriaga Bledos

  3. CARS MAIN OD PAIRS

  4. CARSTRIP PURPOSE

  5. AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC MODELS Trip Generation Population and employment Fratar Model, two – dimensional balance Trip Distribution Logit Model with travel time and toll Modal Choice Trip Assignment User equilibrium and multiclass

  6. VALUE OF TIME CARS BUSES SINGLE FRAME TRUCKS TWO UNIT TRUCKS Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Period VOT VOT VOT VOT Time Cost Time Cost Time Cost Time Cost Weekday -0.03157 -0.02306 1.369 -0.04213 -0.01521 2.770 -0.06437 -0.02506 2.569 -0.04107 -0.01565 2.624 Weekend -0.03362 -0.02133 1.576 -0.03461 -0.0287 1.206 -0.03461 -0.02870 1.206 -0.03176 -0.03133 1.014 Weekday Weekend

  7. TRAFFICASSIGNMENT

  8. TRAFFIC FORECAST Average Annual Daily Traffic 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 Vehicles 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Cars Buses Single Frame Trucks Two Unit Trucks

  9. AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED Cars Single Frame Trucks 1,600 350 9.2% 5.2% 1,500 300 1,400 250 1,300 -8.2% -45.7% 1,200 200 -53.5% Vehicles 1,100 Vehicles -57.3% 150 1,000 -68.4% 900 100 -36.3% 800 S.F.T. Observed 50 Observed Cars 700 S.F.T. Estimated Estimated Cars 0 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Year Buses Two Unit Trucks 250 350 T.U.T. Observed 84.3% 84.5% 82.1% T.U.T. Estimated 85.0% 300 200 56.4% 250 150 200 14.1% Vehicles Vehicles 150 93.7% 100 -43.8% 100 50 Observed Buses 50 Estimated Buses 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Year

  10. VEHICLE COMPOSITION ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED MEDIUM SCENARY

  11. AADT ESTIMATED vs. OBSERVED Tránsito Observado vs. Estimado SLP-La Pila-Arriaga 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 SLP-Cerritos-Río Verde 900 AADT 1,600 850 1,500 800 1,400 750 1,300 700 1,200 Observed Cars 650 Estimated Cars AADT 1,100 600 Year 2002 2003 1,000 900 800 Observed Cars 700 Estimated Cars 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year

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