Challenges to Local & Regional Tourism

1. Challenges to Local & Regional Tourism Current Trends & Issues Conference 2015 Northern Caribbean university College of Business & Hospitality Management Glenroy Henry

2. Introduction The Caribbean is a major winter vacation destination and tourism is an extremely important economic activity for the region. Tourist arrivals were recorded by the CTO as slightly greater than 23.8 million visitors in 2011 for member countries.

3. Introduction Contd. Yet many countries in the region downplay the value and importance of Tourism as an economic and social driver towards regional tourism development and integration. Those of that view are doubtful that tourism can positively impact their current position and are split between supporting tourism activities and other ‘more’ urgent and important national projects eg. trade and export.

4. Introduction Contd. The belief that a robust manufacturing, export driven economy, facilitated by structural adjustments to attract foreign direct investments in sectors such as energy and mining, ITC and agro processing is considered by many, including International Lending Agencies as being the imperative to economic growth in the region.

5. Introduction Contd. Globalization has opened up the world market to the region, but has also left us exposed to the larger, more experienced and more heavily funded industrialized and developed nations. This level of involvement provides us with unprecedented opportunities, and also some serious challenges.

6. Background The evolution of tourism in Jamaica reveals that much has been spent on promoting brand Jamaica. These efforts in part is an attempt to gauge the delicate balance between the consumption patterns of tourists and local products and services. However, the resilience of the industry both locally and regionally have been brought into sharp focus in light of current and recent occurrences both home and abroad

7. Tourism and the Jamaican Economy The sector has grown rapidly ,since independence: visitor arrivals, less than 300,000 in 1962, reached 1 million in 1987 and by 1999, exceeded 2 million. In 2006 total arrivals passed the 3 million mark for the first time, 1.3 million of which were cruse passengers.

8. Tourism and the Jamaican Economy Today, the tourism industry is one of the leading industries in Jamaica, contributing directly an estimated 8% and indirectly 25.6% to GDP and supplying 285 000 jobs in 2012. Tourism also contributed some US$3.99 billion to the economy in the same period. Source: World Economic Forum report 2012

9. Tourism and the Jamaican Economy In an attempt to establish herself as a major player in the tourism industry Jamaica crafted a set of strategic objectives captured in its Vision 2030 plan, the reason for which is partly owing to the US credit market’s collapse in 2007. Having limped out of the situation Jamaica and the region saw: reduced flows of direct investments; greater difficulty in sourcing funds from global capital markets; reduction in demand for exports; and a downturn in tourism earnings.

10. Therefore, all those who are concerned about economic sustainability must identify and neutralize weaknesses within sectors while proactively and realistically plan to deal with the inevitability of the threats common or unique real or imagined. In the context of Tourism, I have identified three imperatives that will require urgent attention if the gains already made are to be retained and expanded upon.

11. Imperatives/Challenges to Local & Regional Tourism • Competitiveness • Control of Infectious diseases • Managing climate change, hazard risks and catastrophes

12. Competitiveness Jamaica and the Caribbean by extension is vulnerable to a variety of external shocks. One such shock is how we rank on the Travel & Tourism Competitive Index (TTCI). The TTCI is a measure developed by the World Economic Forum that aims to measure the factors and policies that make the T&T sector relatively more or less competitive in different countries.

13. Competitiveness On the TTCI Jamaica was ranked 60th in 2009, 65th in 2011, the country was ranked 94 out of 148 countries in the 2013 to 2014 report and 97 out of 144 the previous year and has moved up eight places on the Global Competitiveness Index and is now ranked 86 out of 144 countries for 2014/15. . A worrying trend given that the country’s Vision 2015 target is 48th and 2030 35th.

14. Travel & tourism Competitiveness Index Source : World Economic Forum

15. Control of Infectious diseases • The threat of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) • Chikungunya (Chik-V) • TB • Malaria • SARS, etc.

16. Chikungunya (Chik-V) Source: Jamaica Observer Monday, October 20, 2014 The effects of an epidemic on the economic health of a nation are catastrophic and the CHIKV epidemic is no different. With the prediction that some 60 per cent of Jamaicans will be affected by CHIKV, that is one million six hundred thousand Jamaicans, and with a downtime of five to 10 days, we are estimating a loss to the Jamaican economy of at least $30 million using a daily wage of $2,000.00 per day.

17. Chikungunya (Chik-V) Warning that new Caribbean virus, causing fever and crippling joint pain, could hit tourism and even spread to the US mainland Travelmail Reporter

18. Fallout from Ebola crisis may threaten tourist destinations Ebola causalities Fallen Aid Worker

19. Fallout from Ebola crisis may threaten tourist destinations Whilst WHO suggests that Ebola is unlikely to be contracted simply through air travel, airports must be one of the easiest locations to become infected due to their size and the large number of people passing through them daily. Airlines flying in and out of affected countries are already taking action. British Airways announced that it was suspending flights to Sierra Leone and Liberia until the end of August. There has been significant pressure on Kenyan Airways to suspend flights but it has continued to fly from Kenya to the Ebola-hit states of West Africa – although the Kenyan government is closing its borders to travellers from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone this week and the airline has promised to adhere to that ban by not flying to those countries. Source: Western Morning NewsPosted: August 21, 2014 Tour operators have already been forced to cancel tours in West Africa – generally you will find that if you have already booked then you will be offered a full refund or transfer to another trip. The Gambian tourist board has issued a statement reassuring would-be tourists that it is safe to visit despite its close proximity to the affected countries. The leisure industry in countries such as Sierra Leone is in its infancy, so this virus is a real tragedy as it will make it much harder to introduce West Africa as a tourist destination.

20. Managing climate change, hazard risks and catastrophes Areas of Concern: • More frequent and more severe hurricanes • Increase in the length of dry seasons and decrease in the length of rainy seasons • Rise in sea levels • Intense rains, flash floods • Increase in temperatures

21. Effects of Climate Change Extreme events produced wide spread damage in the tourism sector, for example: -Ivan in 2004 had an impact of US$ 23.7m (excluding indirect impact) - Dean in 2007 did damage to the tune of US $43.7m; of which US$ 30 m was in the accommodation subsector. Source: Boxill; Ramjeesingh; Chen. Centre for Tourism and Policy Research The University of the West Indies, Mona Increased infrastructural damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements and business interruptions, including in the tourist industry, due to floods, coastal inundation and extreme events. Tropical storms and hurricanes appear to be the dominant factor influencing beach erosion (Source: PIOJ 2012)

22. Effects of Climate Change SEA LEVEL RISE: - Coastal area is low 70% of population resides in coastal areas- Most of major resort areas, Negril, Montego Bay, Ocho Rios and South coast including Kingston are located in the low lying coastal areas. In the event of a storm surge or a 1-2 m rise in the sea level it would have a major impact on: population; tourist resorts; infrastructure, i.e. roads, airports &port facilities possible loss of land (in Kingston, Portland and Negril) Source: Boxill; Ramjeesingh; Chen. Centre for Tourism and Policy Research The University of the West Indies, Mona Beaches respond to sea level rise by retreating inland at approximately 100 times the rate of sea level rise. Groundwater quality continues to be and will be further affected by the proximity of some basins to the coast. Sea water intrusion has resulted in the loss of 100 million cubic meters of groundwater (10% of local supply) annually. (Source: PIOJ 2012)

23. Effects of Climate Change Temperature extremes can lead to increased incidence of heat stress and other heat related illnesses. In extreme cases it can become fatal. Heat stress remains a concern with higher temperatures for tourists and outdoor workers. Heat storage of built structures, leads to ‘heat island effect’ This leads to additional operating costs for cooling aids. Sea surface temperature increases of at least 1.0 degree Celsius will lead to coral reef bleaching) (NB: No base temperature was given for the 1 degree rise ) These reefs contribute to Jamaica’s tourism product through diving and fishing tours .They are also critical of beach and sand. ( Source: PIOJ 2012)

24. Effects of Climate Change Some water catchment areas are prone to flooding and exposed to the risk of debris and sediment flows. Heavy rains contaminate watersheds by transporting human and animal faecal products and other wastes into groundwater. Heavy rainfall also affects the health and sanitation of some communities without proper toilet facilities (water closets). Flooded pit latrines release waste directly into the rivers. This solid waste then threatens the health of people in the communities and especially the health of children who use the river for bathing purposes. This has led to an increase in diseases associated with water sanitation and poor hygiene practices. ( Source: PIOJ 2012)

26. Effects of Climate Change Adverse rainfall /weather conditions could lead to cancellation of reservations or displacement of visitors which would incur massive losses in revenue. ( Source: PIOJ 2012)

27. Thank You!