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10 Things You Need To Know About The Future of Television

KIT digital's Global Lead Analyst, Alan Wolk, offers a sharp-witted view of the state of the television industry, circa Summer 2012

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10 Things You Need To Know About The Future of Television

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  1. WHAT NOW? 10 Things You Need To Know About The Future Of Television

  2. AS TV AND THE INTERNET HURTLE TOWARDS CONVERGENCE, THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS, MORE UNCERTAINTY THEN STABILITY AT KIT DIGITAL, WE LIVE TO DEBATE THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION, AND FROM TIME TO TIME WE ASK ONE OF OUR PEOPLE TO SHAKE UP OUR THINKING WITH SOME FRESH PERSPECTIVES IDEAS. WHAT FOLLOWS IS OUR GLOBAL LEAD ANALYST ALAN WOLK'S TAKE ON THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION

  3. AS TV AND THE INTERNET HURTLE TOWARDS CONVERGENCE, THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS, MORE UNCERTAINTY THEN STABILITY AT KIT DIGITAL, WE LIVE TO DEBATE THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION, AND FROM TIME TO TIME WE ASK ONE OF OUR PEOPLE TO SHAKE UP OUR THINKING WITH SOME FRESH PERSPECTIVES IDEAS. WHAT FOLLOWS IS OUR GLOBAL LEAD ANALYST ALAN WOLK'S TAKE ON THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION LET THE DEBATE BEGIN!

  4. BUT FIRST, A QUICK DEFINITION: MVPD

  5. BUT FIRST, A QUICK DEFINITION: Once telcos and satellite companies got into the mix, the term “cable company” didn’t really fit anymore MVPD

  6. BUT FIRST, A QUICK DEFINITION: Once telcos and satellite companies got into the mix, the term “cable company” didn’t really fit anymore MVPD So now we call the companies that provide pay-TV service MVPDs, which stands for

  7. BUT FIRST, A QUICK DEFINITION: Once telcos and satellite companies got into the mix, the term “cable company” didn’t really fit anymore MVPD So now we call the companies that provide pay-TV service MVPDs, which stands for Multichannel Video Programming Distributors

  8. AND NOW 10 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION

  9. Q: WHAT’S THE MAIN THING STOPPING VIEWERS FROM CUTTING THE CORD?

  10. A: BANDWIDTH CAPS

  11. A: BANDWIDTH CAPS Even if you’re cutting the cord, YOU STILL NEED AN INTERNET CONNECTION

  12. A: BANDWIDTH CAPS Even if you’re cutting the cord, YOU STILL NEED AN INTERNET CONNECTION Most people buy internet and TV together as part of a bundle that offers unlimited bandwidth and deep discounts

  13. A: BANDWIDTH CAPS Even if you’re cutting the cord, YOU STILL NEED AN INTERNET CONNECTION Most people buy internet and TV together as part of a bundle that offers unlimited bandwidth and deep discounts Cut the cord, and you’re looking at bandwidth caps for internet use, along with higher prices for a reliable high- speed internet connection

  14. A: BANDWIDTH CAPS Even if you’re cutting the cord, YOU STILL NEED AN INTERNET CONNECTION Most people buy internet and TV together as part of a bundle that offers unlimited bandwidth and deep discounts Cut the cord, and you’re looking at bandwidth caps for internet use, along with higher prices for a reliable high- speed internet connection Since video eats up a lot of bandwidth, cutting the cord can prove more expensive than keeping it intact

  15. BUT The US Department of Justice recently announced that it was investigating whether bandwidth caps constituted “restraint of trade” There are strong arguments on either side, so expect this one to reach the Supreme Court

  16. Q: WHEN WILL HBO START SELLING HBOGO AS A STANDALONE SOLUTION?

  17. A: NOT ANYTIME SOON

  18. A: NOT ANYTIME SOON There are several reasons HBO is unlikely to take this step, no matter how much the internet speculates:

  19. A: NOT ANYTIME SOON There are several reasons HBO is unlikely to take this step, no matter how much the internet speculates: HBO IS NOT SET UP TO ACCEPT PAYMENTS. They get their money from the MVPDs who do the collecting for them

  20. A: NOT ANYTIME SOON There are several reasons HBO is unlikely to take this step, no matter how much the internet speculates: HBO IS NOT SET UP TO ACCEPT PAYMENTS. They get their money from the MVPDs who do the collecting for them HBO MAKES A LOT OF MONEY FOR MVPDS. AND VICE VERSA 3 months free is a lure for new customers. HBO’s easily bundled into premium packages. Why give up a good thing?

  21. A: NOT ANYTIME SOON There are several reasons HBO is unlikely to take this step, no matter how much the internet speculates: HBO IS NOT SET UP TO ACCEPT PAYMENTS. They get their money from the MVPDs who do the collecting for them HBO MAKES A LOT OF MONEY FOR MVPDS. AND VICE VERSA 3 months free is a lure for new customers. HBO’s easily bundled into premium packages. Why give up a good thing? HBO GO IS A TROJAN HORSE. If the MVPDs get too tough on fee negotiation, HBO can point out that they’ve got a great alternative that’s all ready to go

  22. Q: WHAT’S HOLDING UP TV EVERYWHERE?

  23. A: LAWYERS

  24. A: LAWYERS The big road bump right now is around RIGHTS ISSUES and whether the broadcast channels or the MVPDs are responsible for AUTHENTICATING VIEWERS

  25. A: LAWYERS The big road bump right now is around RIGHTS ISSUES and whether the broadcast channels or the MVPDs are responsible for AUTHENTICATING VIEWERS In addition to the legal wrangling, WIFI STILL ISN’T EVERYWHERE and that holds up real demand.

  26. A: LAWYERS The big road bump right now is around RIGHTS ISSUES and whether the broadcast channels or the MVPDs are responsible for AUTHENTICATING VIEWERS In addition to the legal wrangling, WIFI STILL ISN’T EVERYWHERE and that holds up real demand. The ability to sit on your couch and watch the Mets game on your iPad isn’t quite the game changer that watching the Mets game on your iPad in the back seat of a taxi would be

  27. Q: WHAT’S THE BEST OPTION FOR A SMART TV?

  28. A: WAITING

  29. A: WAITING SMART TVS ARE LIKELY TO GO THE WAY OF THE DVD PLAYER

  30. A: WAITING SMART TVS ARE LIKELY TO GO THE WAY OF THE DVD PLAYER The manufacturers can’t agree on a single standard, technology keeps advancing, and consumers are not used to buying TVs with the same frequency as other electronics.

  31. A: WAITING SMART TVS ARE LIKELY TO GO THE WAY OF THE DVD PLAYER The manufacturers can’t agree on a single standard, technology keeps advancing, and consumers are not used to buying TVs with the same frequency as other electronics. While creating Smart TV apps makes sense right now, look for them to be replaced by SMARTER (AND SMALLER) SET TOP BOXES that allow MVPDs to push out the latest updates as well as APPS ON 2ND SCREEN DEVICES that do the work of a set top box

  32. Q: WHAT’S KEEPING THE BIG HOLLYWOOD STUDIOS UP AT NIGHT?

  33. A: WHAT ISN’T?

  34. A: WHAT ISN’T? Two big ones:

  35. A: WHAT ISN’T? Two big ones: THE RAPID DROP IN DVD SALES. UltraViolet has recovered somewhat from its less-than-stellar debut, but given how comfortable consumers are with streaming video, there’s no indication that UltraViolet can save the DVD

  36. A: WHAT ISN’T? Two big ones: THE RAPID DROP IN DVD SALES. UltraViolet has recovered somewhat from its less-than-stellar debut, but given how comfortable consumers are with streaming video, there’s no indication that UltraViolet can save the DVD THEPUSH TO SHRINK THE WINDOW BETWEEN THEATRICAL AND PAY VOD RELEASE. MVPDs see big profits from early VOD releases, but cinema chains are freaked out by the prospect. Studios know the VOD market is growing and will slowly but surely start to shorten their windows

  37. Q: WHEN WILL CONSUMERS BE ABLE TO CLICK AND BUY SOMETHING THEY SEE ON TV?

  38. A: THEY WON’T

  39. A: THEY WON’T Though the “Jennifer Aniston’s Sweater” paradigm has long been a fantasy of advertisers, THERE ARE VERY FEW PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE ORDERED WITH JUST ONE CLICK.

  40. A: THEY WON’T Though the “Jennifer Aniston’s Sweater” paradigm has long been a fantasy of advertisers, THERE ARE VERY FEW PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE ORDERED WITH JUST ONE CLICK. Factor in decisions like size/color/model/quantity/shipping mode and you’ve annoyed the viewer by taking them away from the show they want to watch.

  41. A: THEY WON’T Though the “Jennifer Aniston’s Sweater” paradigm has long been a fantasy of advertisers, THERE ARE VERY FEW PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE ORDERED WITH JUST ONE CLICK. Factor in decisions like size/color/model/quantity/shipping mode and you’ve annoyed the viewer by taking them away from the show they want to watch. THE SOLUTION: Consumers will be able to purchase items after the show from their 2nd screen device

  42. A: THEY WON’T Though the “Jennifer Aniston’s Sweater” paradigm has long been a fantasy of advertisers, THERE ARE VERY FEW PRODUCTS THAT CAN BE ORDERED WITH JUST ONE CLICK. Factor in decisions like size/color/model/quantity/shipping mode and you’ve annoyed the viewer by taking them away from the show they want to watch. THE SOLUTION: Consumers will be able to purchase items after the show from their 2nd screen device BIG WINNER: Product placement, as 2nd screen devices provide more opportunities to turn placements into sales

  43. Q: WHAT MAKES 2ND SCREEN APPS THE BEST THING EVER FOR MVPDS?

  44. A: DATA

  45. A: DATA Viewers will all have INDIVIDUAL 2ND SCREEN ACCOUNTS, which will provide MVPDs with detailed data about who is watching, what they’re watching, where and when

  46. A: DATA Viewers will all have INDIVIDUAL 2ND SCREEN ACCOUNTS, which will provide MVPDs with detailed data about who is watching, what they’re watching, where and when This data can be used to negotiate better deals with the networks whose content they broadcast

  47. A: DATA Viewers will all have INDIVIDUAL 2ND SCREEN ACCOUNTS, which will provide MVPDs with detailed data about who is watching, what they’re watching, where and when This data can be used to negotiate better deals with the networks whose content they broadcast MVPDs can use the data to approach advertisers directly and negotiate a Groupon-like deal for their subscribers

  48. A: DATA Viewers will all have INDIVIDUAL 2ND SCREEN ACCOUNTS, which will provide MVPDs with detailed data about who is watching, what they’re watching, where and when This data can be used to negotiate better deals with the networks whose content they broadcast MVPDs can use the data to approach advertisers directly and negotiate a Groupon-like deal for their subscribers Better data also means a better user experience as discovery engines can be fine-tuned and commercials better targeted

  49. Q: WHAT’S THE ACHILLES HEEL OF MOST SOCIAL TV APPS?

  50. A: INCOMPLETE DATA

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