ONR space science investment overview

1. ONR space science investment overview Stefan Thonnard Robert McCoy Fred Hellrich ONR Space Science and Technology (703) 696-6947 stefan.thonnard@navy.mil thonnars@nro.ic.gov

2. Space 6.1 & 6.2 Allocations Space Technology TACSAT (6.2)

3. ONR Space Weather Research • Invest in S&T that looks beyond the next evolutionary step • Stimulate community research • 10 year outlook for Naval needs • Defendable robust basic research program requires clearly identified transition • Advocacy from the users • Focus on improvements that will satisfy new users by enabling new capabilities • What are the enablers for future systems • Advocate for continued space environment monitoring for operations and research • Leverage international collaboration (National Space Policy)

4. ONR Space Weather Priorities • ONR is investing in science and technology that supports improved specification and forecasting of space weather • Long-term: science investment • Stimulate research that supports D & E region ionospheric specification – MURI possible in 2011 • Transition space sensors to support • operational data assimilation • Specific space weather products • Short-term: Transition to operations • Deliver the next generation ionospheric forecast by 2012 • Ionospheric drivers, coupled models, new data • Establish transition partners early in the process to ensure operational success • Demonstrate new data sources in support of assimilation

5. Space Environment Areas of Investment Specification and Forecasting Application • Sun – Earth connection • Ionosphere • Thermosphere • Radiation remediation • Pointing, navigation & timing • Disruption due to solar flares & storms • HF Propagation • Precision Orbit Determination, ionospheric forecasting • Protection of space assets • Enhance small satellite capabilities *Yellow indicates current ONR investments

6. Roadmap Legend • Next slide is the highest level ONR Space Weather Roadmap (very busy) • Detailed sub area roadmaps are being developed Legend Transition point to an operational system ONR focus area topic Solid outline indicates currently funded by ONR Dotted outline indicates an unfunded effort Theater Ion Spec. Solid color represents ONR funded, magenta is funds from others, light blue is joint funding Dependency or link to another investment project

7. ONR Space Science Roadmap FY2013 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 Assimilation Development GAIM – FP (Full Physics) GAIM – GM GAIM – GM (enhancements) Theater Ion Spec. Focus Investment (MURI) Studies & Research Ionospheric Drivers Ionospheric Irregularities Atmospheric Coupling Space Wx Effects Sensor Development Compact operational sensors In situ – neutral & ion comp, wind Remote sensing – GPS Occ, UV imaging, FP wind Advanced Space Wx Products Non-traditional Space Wx sources – lightning…

8. Ionospheric Forecasting DRI • Targeted research to support the development of the GAIM (full physics) for AFWA • Understand and model the ionospheric drivers • E-field, Neutral composition, neutral wind, momentum exchange from below • Investigate ionospheric irregularities • Bubble formation and propagation • Lightning & wave induces variability • Atmospheric coupling • Thermosphere – Ionosphere – Mesosphere • Space Weather Effects • Only a small subset of this work will be applied to GAIM • Focus the remainder to the next step in ionospheric specification – high resolution support to theater engagement • Accurate D & E region specification is required • New measurements & modeling

9. Science portfolio (no order)

10. Technology Enablers for a New Space Weather Paradigm • Small satellites • Scientific community is exploring the utility of nanosats (Cubesat) • Lower-cost rapid access to space – rides of opportunity • Universities, NSF & others without large space development facilities are players • Requires innovation to reduce SWaP • Data assimilation • Accurate real-time specification and forecast • Designed to accommodate new sensors • Tolerant of a failed sensor • Provides transition for science and sensor development

11. Summary: ONR & Space Weather • Do good science! • Publish & present • Engage students • Collaborate with other PI • Mini workshops • Assemble what we learn to support high resolution D&E region specification • Establish transition paths to operations early

12. End

13. Ionospheric Drivers Neutral Atmosphere 2nd Order: Winds, Tides, Electric Fields, Magnetic Fields, Convection, Dynamics 1st Order: (1) Hours to Days = + Ionosphere Solar EUV + Xray Flux (2) Hours to Days (3) Days to Weeks Also: + Sun & Earth Coupling Solar prediction & monitoring

14. Future of Space Weather Measurements • Historically a sensor was designed to provide specific products • Value was based on requirements from the customer • Dependency on other sensors was imposed risk to the mission • Data assimilation requires us to rethink what types of measurements have the most value • Many simple measurements vs fewer multi product sensors • Diversity of sensors reduces vulnerability • Final product must satisfy several users • System must evolve as new sensors become available and die • No one sensor can provide a complete picture • Need low cost sensors deployed into diverse measurement fabric • Need information standards for easy assimilation of new sensors

15. Space Weather Sensor Categories Supporting Measurements (small) Missions (Big) Dedicated Product Sensors (Medium) • Distributed fabric of simple sensors • Provide a product only in conjunction with other measurements • Characterized physical response of the environment • Examples: • SWATS • GPS occultation • TIP • SWaP <0.005 m3, <5kg, <5W • Highly complex multi sensor systems • Designed to answer fundamental science questions • Examples: • NASA TIMED • STP ARGOS • CNOFS • RAIDS • SWaP >0.5 m3, >50kg, >50W • Robust sensors • Designed for continuous operation and products to the user • Examples: • SSULI/SSUSI • NPOESS SES • GEO IMAGER • LITES • SWaP <0.5 m3, <50kg, <50W * ONR technology investments

16. ONR Sensor Development • ONR is investing in space weather sensors for ionospheric specification and forecasting • Micro sensor Space Wx packages for data assimilation including • In situ neutral composition, wind & ion drift • GPS occultation and topside • Nadir UV photometery • Science and comprehensive product instruments • Fabry-Perot SHS for neutral winds & UV Imaging Data from these sensors is required now for the assimilation development and transition to operations

17. What product sensors are available? No current or planned funding; currently seeking Some current funding but requires additional resources to completion S&T funded but requires some additional funds for additional demo unit Prototype or demo entirely funded

18. What small sensors are available today? Same color coding as previous page