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Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?

Evolution 3G builds on existing networks Huge volumes Global spectrum Separate network Optimized for voice Old technology. Revolution IP networks Optimized air interfaces Design for converged traffic New technology for low cost No global spectrum or approval No market momentum

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Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?

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  1. Evolution 3G builds on existing networks Huge volumes Global spectrum Separate network Optimized for voice Old technology Revolution IP networks Optimized air interfaces Design for converged traffic New technology for low cost No global spectrum or approval No market momentum Timing? Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win? For most of the world in 5 years(aside from North America and part of Europe): Phone = Cell Phone Internet = Wireless Internet

  2. Industry Directions for Networking 1st GPRS customers GPRS standards begin FPLMTS standards begin • Cellular Telecom Approach • Efforts to define wireless data networking standard (General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before full impact of Internet explosion is felt • Internet-Based Approach • Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000) 1998 1994 1992 1990 1995 2000 3M Internet Users 153M Internet Users Microsoft & AT&T still competing with Internet

  3. 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard Bell Labs, Lucent Technology

  4. 3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless Wireless Networks become the point of access that funnels end user experience into the Internet Wireless Network Internet

  5. IP Network Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision GPRS/ EDGE/ TDMA Base Station Wireless Backbone and Gateways • codec converter • bandwidth manager • store & forward • playback Multimedia & Messaging Server • integrated • voice and data • video postcards • in-call image • up/download UMTS/ CDMA2000 Base Station Content Bluetooth Cable, xDSL, V90 10/100-BaseT Radio Hub Location Services Wi-Fi (WaveLAN) Wireless PAN Wireless LAN

  6. Migration of Digital Cellular Systems Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data Packet-Switched Circuit-Switched GSM Circuit-Switched Voice GPRS Packet Data EDGE Packet Voice & Data over EDGE IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice IS-136+ EDGE UMTS GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems Packet Voice & Data over UMTS (WCDMA) CDMA2000

  7. 5/99 Est 5/99 Est EMC Mobility Subscriber Projections: Analyst View 1.3B by 2004

  8. Today’s IP Market Data Services 37,092 Internet Access 15,471 IP Telephony 1,890 IP VPN 419 Total54,872 Today’s Voice Market Switched Telephony 462,763 Fax 64,775 Total527,538 Today’s IP Market Today’s Voice Market 9.4% = The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ($ Millions) Wireless is much worse Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3

  9. Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode • Service offered: - Security trading (2 traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel - Concert tickets - News - Network game - Total of 1300 I-mode web sites • Subscriber uptake: - Service Launch February 22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August - August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most popular

  10. I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year (and the Rate is Increasing) ~140,000 new subscribers/week DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000

  11. Wonder Swan • Hand-held Game Device • Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year • Email send and receive (SMTP) • Internet Access (mini-browser) • Remote download of mini-games

  12. Wireless Data in the Japan Market Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment Cost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents) High School Girls 10 YEN P-Mail Business Professional Value Mail Capability Speed 64K Market Segment Application 64K Dating Connection H.S. Girl

  13. Mobility: Data vs Voice • Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice • BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice • US is behind Europe and Japan • Japan is approaching 50% data traffic • Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient • 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3 • 3G systems have • IP backbones • Lower cost per bit • Easy service creation • What will be the services? • Who will pay the bills?

  14. Migration of Digital Cellular Systems Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data Packet-Switched Circuit-Switched GSM Circuit-Switched Voice GPRS Packet Data EDGE Packet Voice & Data over EDGE IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice IS-136+ EDGE UMTS GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems Packet Voice & Data over UMTS (WCDMA) CDMA2000

  15. Mobility Subscriber Projections: by Technology UMTS GSM Subscribers in Thousands Lucent WNG View

  16. 3G Data Options

  17. Wireless Control Servers Feature Control, Network Management, Billing, etc Transition to Next Generation Networks Today’s Wireless Networks Next Generation Networks Internet / Advanced Services PSTN PSTN Packet Mode Servers High Speed Data, Multimedia, Voice over IP, etc. Circuit Mode Servers Voice, LS Circuit Data, etc. Mobile Switches Network Servers MSC Base Stations IP / ATM Core Network … … Radio Clients • 99% Mobile Voice • Circuit Derived • Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline • Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP) The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.

  18. Services Rollout 3G Visual, High Speed Video Web cam GPRS WAP launch Intranet Video clips TV Conference Music Web access Mobile Office Schedule Management Work flow Management Electronic Conference File Sharing Interactive TV Radio Multi-player Games Portal Link m-banking m-cash m-stock trading Chat Room Picture clips Information Services email SMS Route planning 4Q1999 4Q2000 1Q1999 4Q2001

  19. Ericsson R320 WAP Phone & MC218 Mobile Companion Motorola StarTAC™ clipOn Organizer NeoPoint™ 1600 smartphone QUALCOMM pdQ™ smartphone Nokia 7110 phone & 9110 Communicator Bandai WonderSwan Sharp Zaurus The Devices are Awesome • Docomo • Pocketboard Samsung MP3 Phone 10

  20. Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates • Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice • 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz • 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks. • For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 ) • 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way. • About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license • => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps • Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations • Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps • Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X • If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3) • ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal • Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00

  21. Will UMTS Happen?: Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction License Winner Price A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited £ 4,384,700,000 B Vodaphone Limited £ 5,964,000,000 C BT (3G) Limited £ 4,030,100,000 D One2One Personal Communications Limited £ 4,003,600,000 E Orange 3G Limited £ 4,095,000,000 ~$34B says it will! Rest of Europe by Fall

  22. Backups

  23. Multiple Access Schemes TDMA Different Time Slots FDMA Different Carriers FHSS Orthogonal Time Slots & Carriers CDMA Different “Languages”

  24. Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE) • Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate circuit and packet data services • Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network with adaptive modulation and coding • Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels • Two versions of EDGE: • EDGE Classic enables full backwards compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse) • EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (< 1 MHz) deployments • Channel structure supports: • Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps • Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to 200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum deployments)

  25. Minicell-mobile r~1 km Picocell-pedestrian r~100 m Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size Wireless data network • Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD) • Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD) • Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN) Macrocell-mobile r~3-5 km BLAST technology used in every one

  26. Projected Crossover 1999 Data=10xVoice 2000 Internet Volume Approaches Voice Worldwide voice/modem traffic Show Me The Money! • Projected Actual ç New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks Source: Internet Society

  27. 7RE SignalingGateways 7RE Feature Servers SGSN GGSN Mob Manager IP/ATM Core Network Customer Care NM Servers 5ESS Switch Packet Gateway Packet Gateway Circuit Data IWF APs APs Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data • Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network. • Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before. 7REResource Servers Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC To Data and VOIP Gateways PSTN Call Control Servers ANSI-41 Backbone Network Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.

  28. Enhanced Data for Global Evolution … (continued) • Handoff enabled through reselection procedures • Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE in GSM Release 2000 • Phase 1 • Standards: Release ’99 • Large deployments start in 2002 • Some initial deployments start in 2001 • Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to about 384 kbps • Phase 2 • Standards: Release 2000 • Large deployments start in 2003 • Some initial deployments start in 2002 • Will add Voice over IP capability

  29. 3G Solution Direction • One Network delivering Voice and Data services • Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market needs • IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services • Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry • Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability (99.999%) • Flexible Service Creation • Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments • Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services • Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added interfaces • Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider • Rapid Network Deployment • Easy to install and maintain • Self Optimizing • Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs

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