C2 Modeling in JWARS

1. C2 Modeling in JWARS Lt Col Greg McIntyre

2. Agenda • JWARS Background • C4ISR Overview • C2 Implementation • JTF • Air Component • Land Component • Maritime Component • Logistics • TBM • Summary

3. Mission Mission: Develop a state-of-the-art, constructive simulation that will: • Provide a multi-sided and balanced representation of joint theater warfare • Be able to assess current and future operational concepts to include Joint Vision 2010’s: • Dominant Maneuver, Precision Engagement, Focused Logistics, and Full-Dimension Protection • Use C4 and ISR as the foundation for how entities perceive and interact with one another Applications 1. Force assessment 2. Planning and execution • Deliberate planning • Crisis action planning 3. System effectiveness and trade off analysis 4. Concept and doctrine development and assessment Users • Joint Staff • Services • CINCs • OSD • Joint Task Forces • Other DoD org's • Industry

4. Requirements - Warfare Functionality(slide 1 of 2) • Release 1 (Limited IOC) • Include C4, ISR, logistics, and essential functionality in legacy simulations TACWAR and MIDAS. • Be capable of replacing TACWAR for force assessment application. • Release 2 (Full IOC) • Provide balanced warfare representation, including C4, ISR, logistics. • Be capable of supporting the applications-- 1. Force assessment. 2. Planning and execution. • Be capable of replacing TACWAR and MIDAS. • Release 3 (FOC) • Provide balanced warfare representation, including C4, ISR, logistics. • Be capable of supporting the applications-- 1. Force assessment. 2. Planning and execution. 3. System effectiveness and trade-off analysis. 4. Concept and doctrine development and assessment. • Be capable of replacing legacy simulations CEM, Thunder, ITEM, and SUMMITS.

5. JWARS Requirements - Warfare Functionality(slide 2 of 2)

6. Release 1 Warfare FunctionalitySummary Notes: - Functional areas displayed are Release 1 (Limited IOC) requirements. - By Release 1.4, all areas will be Implemented.

7. Guidelines for Model DevelopmentUK/NATO Code of Best Practice in C2 Assessment Models must represent • Information as a commodity • Realistic flow of information around the battlespace • Collection of information from multiple sources and tasking of collection assets • Processing of information • Represent C2 [C4ISR] systems as entities on the battlespace • Unit perceptions built, updated, and validated from information available through its information systems • Commander’s decision based on the unit’s perception of the battlespace • Information operations

8. Agenda • JWARS Background • C4ISR Overview • C2 Implementation • JTF • Air Component • Land Component • Maritime Component • Logistics • TBM • Summary

9. Represented as a “composite software object.” Top-level decomposition: Battle Space Entity (BSE) Owns or Controls Command & Control Sensor Resource Manager Platform Communications Manager Accountability of Resources “Thinking,” Planning, Decision Making Communications-based interface to other BSEs BSE Detecting, recognizing, identifying Location, speed, direction Fundamental Warfare Functionality Component -- Battle Space Entity (BSE) • BSE --a friendly unit, enemy unit, or major system operating in the battle space. Examples: - Operational Headquarters - Land: Maneuver Battalion - Strategic aircraft and ships - Air: Air Mission Element - Airbases and seaports - Space: Sensor Satellite - Maritime: Ship, Submarine

10. ISR System Representation Air Space Cobra Ball F-14 TARPS Global Hawk JSTARS Predator Rivet Joint ISR Sensor categories represented in JWARS: • Electro-Optical (EO) • Infra Red (IR) • Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) • Moving Target Indicator (MTI) • Communications Intelligence (COMINT) • Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) • Human Intelligence (HUMINT) • Measurements &Signatures Intelligence (MASINT) U-2 Guardrail Surface NOTE: In order to represent any possible future, JWARS provides a generic capability to represent any kind of platform and associate with it any kind of sensor with any intelligence discipline. The fact that such a modeling capability exists does not imply that any such system exists, is planned, or is even feasible.

11. Processing (Correlation, Association, Fusion) Decision (Command and Control) Situation Map (Perceived Truth) Intelligence Preparation of the Battle Space (User Input) Communications Communications Collection Plan (User Input) Database of Forces, Assets, etc. (Ground Truth) Data Collection (Sensors) Action (Movement, Combat) Logical Structure (Based on C4ISR) All decisions (C2) are based on the current perception fed by the ISR process over communications networks.

12. Intelligence Preparation of the Battle Space • User specified at initialization • OPFOR information • Order of Battle (unit strength, garrison location, org type) • Doctrine (Templates) • Environmental Information • Terrain (Go/No Go) • Day / Night • Terrain Trafficability

13. Collection Plan • Intelligence requirements • Description • Search Location • Search Timing (if applicable) • Processing - Immediate or Periodic Fusion • Satisfaction Criteria - Absence, presence, strength, condition, activity, etc. • Priority • Intelligence Disciplines (leads to sensor allocation) • Quality (NIIRS equivalent) • Report Requirements (when, to whom) • Platform / Sensor Tasking

14. Sensor Ground Truth Asset T-72 Tank BMP 2 Zil 90 Truck Total Count 6 6 4 16 T-72 1 0 0 Tank 3 1 0 IFV 0 3 0 Track 1 0 0 Truck 0 0 3 Vehicle 0 1 0 Classification Matrix T-72 .20 .02 .00 Tank .60 .08 .02 IFV .10 .84 .03 Track .05 .04 .05 Truck .03 .02 .85 Vehicle .02 .04 .05 Total 1.0 1.0 1.0 Actual / Perceived T-72 Tank BMP 2 Zil 90 Truck Detected T-72 Tank BMP 2 Zil 90 Truck 5 5 3 Data Collection - Asset Counting Resulting Sensor Report Search Area T-72 Tanks Tank IFV Track Vehicle Truck Vehicle Total 1 4 3 1 3 1 13 Sensor Field of View 5 Perceived Classification Results 4 1 3 Detection Probabilities T-72 Tank BMP 2 Zil 90 Truck 0.8 0.7 0.5 2 Probabilities of detection, classification and identification can be affected by target’s activity, local visibility, countermeasures (future), and local terrain/vegetation (future)

15. Demand for Communications Mean Time To Repair Setup Time Mean Time To Reconfigure Setup Time Existing Infrastructure at Allied Bases Delay (sec) Message Load 3.5Mbs 3.5Mbs Major Node On-Line 1.5 2.6 1Mbs Initial Communications Capacity for Network A Major-Node Arrival(2Mbs provider for Network A) Minor-Node Arrival(0.5Mbs provider for Network A) Minor Node On-Line Existing Infrastructure Major Node Damaged 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 Day Communications • Important messages are simulated explicitly; others are “background” traffic. • 144 message types sent explicitly, e.g.: • Sensor Reports (multiple types) - Resupply Requests • Battle Damage Assessments - Undersea Warfare Orders • Multiple networks with individually defined capabilities. • Network load and delay are a function of the network, phase of the war, and time of day. No constraint on # of networks, providers, and subscribers. Each unit can be on multiple networks. Network performance and connection defined in data, which can be modified by user.

16. Bde HQ Bde HQ JTF Comm Mgr C2 Collection Flight BSE Comm Manager C2 C2 Perception through remote sensors and communication of “sensor” messages Comm Mgr Sensor C2 SITMAP SITMAP Units can query simulated SITMAP concerning OPFOR in given area II II II ? ? Perception through short range organic sensors and communication of “in contact” messages and MISREPs SITMAP maintains status of installations and feature (e.g., bridges) Processing

17. Processing Components • Correlation • Determine whether multiple sensor reports refer to a common entity • Delay • Add Processing, Exploitation, and Dissemination (PED) delay • Association • Match sensor report (or set of reports merged per correlation) with a particular perceived entity; if not, create a new perceived entity • Fusion • Update perceived attributes of perceived entity based on all available information, present and past • Purge • Delete mobile entities that are “too old.”

18. Situation Map • Referred to as the JEF (JWARS Equipment & Forces) or as the COP (Common Operational Picture) • Maintained at the JTF-level • Accessible by any BSE • Information Variability • Timeliness • PED Delay, Age of Information • Accuracy • Unit Identification (multiple classification levels) • Strength Estimate - Mean & Variance • Geo-Spatial - Location & Velocity (subject to collection error) • Subject to Negative Information

19. NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI NAI • Maneuver and Fire Support decisions are based on relative density of friendly & enemy forces • Opposing force information derived from perception • Own force information based on situation reports Decisions and Actions Indication & Warning Maneuver Planning Targeting Joint Target Coordination Board (JTCB) assess available targets and assigns missions

20. Agenda • JWARS Background • C4ISR Overview • C2 Implementation • JTF • Air Component • Land Component • Maritime Component • Logistics • TBM • Summary

21. Command & Control Considerations • Operational Structure • Command and Control Hierarchy • Orders • Awareness - situation relative to mission accomplishment • Information from its own organic sensors • Information through communications with other BSEs • Query the JWARS Equipment and Forces (JEF) • Commanders • Decisions - based on available information not ground truth

22. JTF C2 Knowledge Base JTF C2 Notifications C4ISR (J2) Component C2 • Air & Space • Land • Maritime Enemy & Environment Status Status Input Decisions Current Phase & State Queries JTF Decisions • Phase & State • ROE • Allocations (future) Current Phase & State Queries Status Reports Sensor Reports Environment Queries Friendly Enemy

23. JTF C2 Decisions • User specifies overall campaign objectives • JTF C2 decisions made dynamically • Indications and Warning • Joint Targeting • Planning • Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) • Satisfies information needs in areas such as • Air Superiority achieved/not achieved • SLOC Open/Closed • Ground Forces in Contact • Ground Units Off-Plan

24. JTF C2 Decision Events (Criteria) • Phase and State Rules • Rules of Engagement (ROE) • Enemy situation • Changes in the Arc-Node Network • General planning guidance • Changes in the environment (future) • Changes in political boundaries / coalition membership* (future) • Delay in execution of operational plans (e.g., amphibious assault with multi-Service support)

25. Collection Plan • Intelligence gathering based on operational situation assessment (changes reflected in the Collection Plan) • Change collection priority • Reprioritize platform / sensor collection • Change area collected against • Execute Component Commander requests for information • ISR support to the amphibious assault • ISR support of SEAD • ISR support of joint targeting, pre-strike target confirmation and post-strike BDA

26. Collection Plan Prioritization • Search priorities are set by the JWARS user for: • Each phase (e.g., pre-hostilities, defense, and counter-offense) • Assignment of a search area by platform / sensor pair • NAI, UAI, Cued, MSN, and JEF • Multiple area deconfliction • Uses revisit time, priority, and last time searched to allocate Satellite-EO each period

27. Rule-Based Sensor Report Preprocessing Land Mobile Maneuver or HQ Sensor Report Combatant Asset Items SP Arty, Mech, or Tank Med. Unit Mech or Tank # Vehicles Maneuver % Tracked Combat Tank Bn % Tracked % Tanks* * NOTE: The presence of T-72 tanks might lead to the identification of a specific org type or at least signify an elite unit

28. Structure Awareness JEF (via queries) Target Location BDA Component Commanders Plan JFLCC CAS & Attack Helo JFMCC Other Plans JTF Collection Plan Air Defense Air Component C2 JTF JFACC Air Facilities Aircraft

29. Air Capable Units Air Unit ALLOREQ ALLOREQ Sorties by Launch Block Allocation (linear program) Launch Inventory A/C Type A/C Type Sortie Demand JFACC Sortie Supply Launch Block Mission Category User Specified JTF C2 User Specified ATO Creation Airspace Control Order Apportionment Mission Percentages ATO Cycle Control Air Routes Orbit Points JTCB Collection Plan Air Defense Plan Target Plan Target/Asset Pairing JFLCC ATO Land Spt Plan Collection Missions Collection Missions ADP Missions CAS/HCAS Missions Collection Missions ADP Missions Collection Missions ADP Missions CAS/HCAS Missions Target Mission User Specified Orbit Points FSC ID Joint Air Operations Plan Air Warfare Planning

30. Intelligence Processes • Collection Plan • IPB • JTF JEF • Enemy OB Intelligence Processes • Collection Plan • IPB • JTF JEF • Enemy OB • Electronic OB* • Air OB** JTCB Target Planning • Target List • Weapons List • Weaponeering JTCB Target Planning • Target List • Weapons List • Weaponeering • Route Risk Assessment* • Packaging* Air Defense Planning • Air Defense Plan • TBMD Plan ATO Processes • Allocation LP • Launch Inventory • Publish ATO/MTO • Air Defense Plan • Collection Plan • Target Plan • Land Support Plan ATO Processes • Allocation LP • Launch Inventory • Publish ATO/MTO • Air Defense Plan • Collection Plan • Target Plan • Land Support Plan • Maritime Support Plan* • SEAD Plan* • SOF Plan** Maritime Support Planning • SW Plan • USW Plan • Mine Plan • Countermine Plan • Assault Plan Airspace Control Planning • Create Air Routes • Create Orbit/AR Points Airspace Control Planning • Create Air Routes • Create Orbit/AR Points • No Fly Zones** SEAD Planning* • JSEAD SO Plan • LSEAD SO Plan • LSEAD Strike Plan Land Support Planning • HCAS Plan • CAS Plan * = Rel 1.4 ** = Beyond Rel 1.4 SOF Planning** Integrated Air PlanningHigh Level View

31. Structure - Very hierarchical Awareness JEF via queries Own ground composite sensor From superior/subordinate units Land Component C2 JTF JFLCC Corps Headquarters Combat Service Support Division Brigade Battalion Combat BSEs

32. Inventory (Force Flow) JFACC NSFS Plan Land Warfare CONOPS Implementation Land Units User Specified Task Organization Units Order of Battle Resources & Assets Forces in Theater TPFDD User Specified JTF C2 JFLCC Campaign Plan Operational Phase/State Control JTCB High Level Orders ROE/Guidance Schedules Tasks Joint Target Plan Allocations Target Nominations Requests Fire Support Transport Supplies JFMCC Dynamic Orders Dynamic Responses Tech Parameters CAS/Helo Requests Weapon Allocations FSCL Fire Support Requests Land Maneuver Fire Support Support Requests Sensor Reports SITREPs Soft Factors Routes, etc.

34. LEGEND Unit Movement Vector Weapon Orientation Unit Formation Orientation Combat Operations Advance to Contact No Reserve or Reserve Committed Defend with Reserve examples • Attack activity seeks combat, but not on any terms (unless so ordered). • Plans are simplistic, but will be more maneuver oriented under the Maneuver Planner. • Boundaries will constrain units, and unit formations will automatically adjust to local conditions.

35. Structure - Dynamic Awareness JEF via queries Own tactical sensor(s) From superior/subordinate units Mission orders and status Pending, In Process, Canceled, On Hold, Complete JTF JFMCC TOG Ships TOG Ships Aircraft Maritime Component C2 Warfare Area Commander controls one or more TOGs A TOG can be subordinate to several Warfare Area Commanders * TOG - Task Oriented Group

36. Maritime Units User Specified Ship Type Resources & Assets Inventory (Force Flow) Tasks Deploy Block User Specified JTF C2 JFMCC Operational Phase/State Control Dynamic Daily Operational Tasking Task Organization JTCB SUW, MIW, STW, etc. SUW Daily Oper Task USW Daily Oper Task Mission Allocation Tomahawk Target Plan Demand Warfare Operating Areas Composite Warfare Commander Target/Asset Pairing JFLCC CV Oper Area ASW Stations. ATO NSFS Plan Collection Missions ADP Missions Collection Missions Collection Missions ADP Missions CAS Missions Target Mission Ship Routing Fire Support PIM FSC ID Trunk Specific Maritime CONOPS Implementation

37. Maritime Order • Specific action to take { What not How } • An order is issued • By Issuer (may be itself) • Sets Priority • Issues all guidance needed for that order • times • locations • Tracks Order • Cancels order • To Receiver • Determines how to accomplish the order • Course of Action selected on constraints and perceive situation • Tells issuer when an order is • Accomplished • Off schedule Issuer Order Receiver

38. Where Orders come from • From Superior or Self • As part of a CONOP • From scripted order • Theater level only • From self • in response to events • a task is invoked with a given priority • When entering the theater { INCHOP orders }

39. Strategic Logistics C2 • Deployment Mode Selection -Assign ULNs to carriers • Air Route Selection • Sea Route Selection -Assign Carriers to Routes • Airlift Scheduling • Sealift Scheduling -Schedule Carrier Loading, -Departure and Arrival Structure: JTF Transcom Awareness: Installation Status, Prohibited Airspace, Asset Availability

40. Intra-Theater Logistics C2 Structure: JTF J4 Unit, sustainment and transportation asset locations • Theater • Unit Equipment Moves From PODs • From strategic lift operations • Resupply Moves from PODs to Depots • From strategic lift operations • Unit Moves Within Theater (BSEs) • Administrative relocation • Resupply Moves from Depots to BSEs • Delivery of sustaining supply AWARENESS Infrastructure: Arc Capacities (Environment), Attrition, Node Ownership (Perception) Scheduler 24 Hour Schedule Shortest Path Algorithm Requirements: Re-supply Requests Prioritization rules: User Defined Unfulfilled requirements

41. Structure Awareness Launch Detections Asset availability/status TBM C2 JTF AADC JFMCC JFLCC JFACC

42. TBMD Illustration DSP ABL Simplistic Command and Control Aegis (NADS/NTW) Patriot/THAAD

43. Agenda • JWARS Background • C4ISR Overview • C2 Implementation • JTF • Air Component • Land Component • Maritime Component • Logistics • TBM • Summary

44. C2 Decision Algorithms Summary • Air • Command Hierarchy - JFACC, AME • Linear Program - ATO planning for aircraft/weapon allocation • Boolean Rules - CAS, SEAD, and Air-to-air weapons control SEAD planning • Land • Command Hierarchy - JFLCC, Armys, …, BN • Commander’s Model - Course of Action assessment • Fuzzy Rule Sets and Game Theory • Maritime • Command Hierarchy - JFMCC, Task Forces, …, Ship • Boolean Rule Sets - Course of Action assessment • Moving towards CBM & Fuzzy Rule Sets used by Land

45. C2 Decision Algorithms Summary (cont) • Amphibious Operations • Boolean Rule Sets - Go/No Go decisions • Transportation & Logistics • Routing & scheduling - Strategic and Theater lift • Shortest path - Ground movement network • TBMD • Boolean Rule Sets - weapon system tasking • Collection Planning • Greedy Algorithm for IR prioritization • Joint Targeting • Greedy Algorithm for target weaponeering

46. Guidelines for Model DevelopmentUK/NATO Code of Best Practice in C2 Assessment Models must represent • Information as a commodity • Realistic flow of information around the battlespace • Collection of information from multiple sources and tasking of collection assets • Processing of information • Represent C2 [C4ISR] systems as entities on the battlespace • Unit perceptions built, updated, and validated from information available through its information systems • Commander’s decision based on the unit’s perception of the battlespace • Information operations (post Release 1)

47. Questions?