NEESR-GC: Seismic Risk Management for Port Systems

1. NEESR-GC: Seismic Risk Management for Port Systems Glenn J. RixGeorgia Institute of Technology

2. U.S. Waterborne Trade Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2004)

3. U.S. Waterborne Trade Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2004)

4. Top 10 U.S. Container Ports Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts Seattle (4%) Tacoma (4%) New York (13%) Oakland (5%) Norfolk (5%) Los Angeles (20%) Charleston (6%) Long Beach (16%) Savannah (5%) Houston (5%) Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2006)

5. Seismic Hazard Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts Seattle Tacoma New York Oakland Norfolk Los Angeles Charleston Long Beach Savannah Houston

6. Current Practice Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • “Minimal damage” and “no downtime” for ground motions with 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years • “Repairable/controllable damage” and “acceptable downtime” for ground motions with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years • Vaguely defined performance requirements • Focus is on individual components • No direct consideration of business interruption losses • Based on arbitrary ground motion probabilities, not loss probabilities

7. Vision Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts The performance of the port system rather than its individual components should be the basis of choosing among seismic risk mitigation options. Because of the complexity of the port system, this approach requires civil engineering, logistics, risk analysis, and behavioral decision disciplines to implement.

8. Project Team Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts University of Washington Decision Research, Inc. MIT University of California - Davis University of Illinois Drexel University Seismic Systems & Engineering Consultants, Inc Georgia Tech University of Texas University of Southern California Civil Engineering Logistics Risk and Decision Analysis

9. Geotechnical Ross Boulanger Patricia Gallagher Ellen Rathje Glenn Rix Andrew Whittle Structural Reggie DesRoches Jim LaFave Dawn Lehman Roberto Leon Charles Roeder Soil-Structure Interaction Dominic Assimaki Eduardo Kausel Logistics Alan Erera Risk and Decision Analysis Ann Bostrom Robin Gregory Craig Taylor Stu Werner Project Coordinator Tanya Blackwell Project Team Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

10. Geotechnical Ross Boulanger Patricia Gallagher Ellen Rathje Glenn Rix Andrew Whittle Structural Reggie DesRoches Jim LaFave Dawn Lehman Roberto Leon Charles Roeder Soil-Structure Interaction Dominic Assimaki Eduardo Kausel Logistics Alan Erera Risk and Decision Analysis Ann Bostrom Robin Gregory Craig Taylor Stu Werner Project Coordinator Tanya Blackwell Project Team Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

11. Port System Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

12. Port Stakeholders Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Port owners and managers • Terminal operators • Ocean carriers • Intermodal transportation providers • Supply chain dependents • Employee unions • Finance and insurance providers • Government agencies • Public

13. Multiple Decision Perspectives Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts Source: Linstone (1984)

14. Risk Management Framework Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Define the decision problem and gather information on the port system • Elicit stakeholder objectives and define alternatives • Evaluate the component and systems-level performance of each alternative • Present the results in a manner to enhance stakeholder comprehension, clarify underlying choices, and address tradeoffs • Iterate

15. Soil-structure interaction Crane response Liquefaction Experimental Simulations Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

16. Soil Improvement Methods Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Prefabricated vertical drains • Low cost means to suppress or dissipate excess pore pressure • Colloidal silica grouting • Environmentally benign material with low initial viscosity, controllable gel time, and long-term mechanical stability

17. Soil Improvement Methods Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Less disruptive than other soil improvement methods; well suited to developed sites • Able to treat areas inaccessible via conventional techniques • Opportunity to investigate drainage and stiffening as compared with densification as mechanisms to mitigate liquefaction • Evaluated via a full-scale field test at the Port of Seattle using NEES@UTexas and centrifuge tests at NEES@UCDavis

18. Pile-Deck Connections Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

19. Pile Configurations Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Steel batter piles - greater ductility and repairability • Vertical pre-cast concrete piles with unbonded dowels - greater ductility • Pre-cast deck construction - efficient construction and repair • Evaluated via full-scale tests at NEES@UIUC

20. Container Cranes Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts

21. Container Cranes Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Ductile moment connections and bracing systems • Technologies to accommodate large ground displacements due to liquefaction • Isolation systems • Tie down systems • Evaluated via large-scale tests at NEES@Buffalo

22. Numerical Simulation Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Compute the response of geotechnical, structural, and soil-structure systems for existing and remediated/retrofitted conditions as a standalone tool and integrated with experimental simulations • Soil-foundation-structure interface nonlinearities • Large, liquefaction-induced ground displacements • Scattering and diffraction in heterogeneous media • Diffraction in 2D and 3D topographic configurations • Coupled longitudinal, transverse, and torsional responses

23. Numerical Simulation Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Simplified analyses • p-y curves for piles derived via pushover (i.e., static) analyses • Simplified dynamic analyses • Equivalent stiffness of embedded pile derived via cyclic loading simulations applied at the pile-deck connection • Dynamic analyses • Finite element modeling of soil-structure system Source: PIANC (2001)

24. Numerical Simulation Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Simplified analyses • p-y curves for piles derived via pushover (i.e., static) analyses • Simplified dynamic analyses • Equivalent stiffness of embedded pile derived via cyclic loading simulations applied at the pile-deck connection • Dynamic analyses via macroelements • Macroelements developed via numerical simulations and validated via experimental simulations • Dynamic analyses • Finite element modeling of soil-structure system

25. Port Operations Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Develop models to estimate system performance (e.g., container throughput) given the state of operational components • Rapid evaluation • Integration within the risk management framework • Why not just simulate? • Requires enumerating a large number of possible component damage states and simulating system performance for each

26. Port Operations Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Develop real-time operational decision support tools to improve port system performance given restricted operational resources • Existing operational models are not equipped to: • Handle dynamic and stochastic information • Integrate decisions for multiple port components • Solve large-scale problems faced by modern ports • Real-time systems optimization has the potential to dramatically improve decisions made in response to natural hazards as well as terrorist incidents

27. K-12 Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Hosting a teacher from Westlake High School via the Georgia Intern-Fellowships for Teachers (GIFT) Program and an RET supplement • Hosting 6 Westlake students for summer research (sponsored by the Siemens Foundation) • Develop term projects using NEES tele-presence capabilities

28. HBCU-REU Program Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Target students at Historically Black Colleges and Universities • Participate in NEES research and enrichment activities

29. Minority Postdoctoral Fellowships Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Increase under-represented groups in academia • Research experience • Faculty mentoring • Student advising • Leverage the AGEP program Dr. Mark Lewis Dr. Sam Graham

30. Industrial Fellowship Program Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • 1-2 week in-residence experience at a partner institution • Knowledge exchange • Facilitate technology transfer

31. Executive Advisory Board Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Tom Armstrong, Georgia Ports Authority • Susumu Iai, Kyoto University • Michael Jordan, Liftech Consultants, Inc. • Tom LaBasco, Port of Oakland • Dick Wittkop, Moffat and Nichol • Port of Seattle representative

32. Impacts Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Innovative soil remediation techniques well suited for port facilities • Improved pile configurations and pile-deck connections that are more ductile and repair-friendly • Improved crane design and retrofit techniques to reduce damage from large ground deformations • Numerical simulation using macroelements to fill the gap between simple and complex analysis methods

33. Impacts Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • Logistics models to link the condition of port facilities with system performance • Real-time decision support to optimize port operations following a disruptive event • Formal research on stakeholder participation and behavioral decision making to integrate value-focused decision research with research on perception and understanding of seismic risks

34. Impacts Introduction Systems View Experimental Simulation Numerical Simulation Port Operations EOT EAB Impacts • A seismic risk management framework that uses the performance of the port system rather than its individual components as the basis for choosing among risk mitigation options • An EOT program that addresses the lack of under-represented groups in the STEM areas with K-12 through postdoctoral programs

35. Acknowledgements • National Science Foundation(Award No. CMS-0530478) • NEESinc and NEESit • Siemens Foundation • Port of Seattle • Georgia Ports Authority • U.S. Naval Facilities Engineering Command • NILEX Corporation • Coasts, Oceans, Ports, and Rivers Institute of ASCE • U.S. Government Accountability Office

37. Vision This project integrates civil engineering, logistics, risk analysis, and behavioral decision disciplines to develop a seismic risk mitigation framework that uses the performance of the port system rather than its individual components as the basis of choosing among risk mitigation options.

38. Soil Improvement Methods Prefabricated vertical drains and colloidal silica grouting: • Less disruptive • Able to treat areas inaccessible via conventional techniques • Opportunity to investigate drainage and stiffening vis-à-vis densification as mechanisms to mitigate liquefaction • Evaluated via a full-scale field test at the Port of Seattle using NEES@UTexas and centrifuge tests at NEES@UCDavis

39. Payload Projects • Researchers with external funding • Researchers without funding (e.g., prediction “competitions”) • EAB and stakeholder-funded projects • Industry-funded projects (e.g., other soil improvement techniques)

40. Numerical Simulation Source: PIANC (2001)

41. Numerical Simulation

42. Risk Management Framework • Acceptable risk procedure • Value-focused thinking • Socio-technical systems approach • Structured deliberation and targeted analysis • Risk communication and perception

43. Risk Management Framework • Define the decision problem and gather information on the port system including stakeholders, physical infrastructure, and operational data • Elicit stakeholder objectives, define explicit systems-level performance measures and attributes, and define alternative means to achieve them • Evaluate the component and systems-level performance (i.e., consequences) of each alternative means including uncertainties • Present the results in a manner to enhance stakeholder comprehension, clarify underlying choices, and explicitly address tradeoffs • Iterate

44. Education, Outreach, and Training • K-12 outreach programs • Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program targeted at Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) • Minority post-doctoral fellowships • Industrial fellowship program