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Tools for the Political Analysis of Policy Reform Initiatives

Tools for the Political Analysis of Policy Reform Initiatives. Merilee S. Grindle Edward S. Mason Professor of International Development John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University May 2004. Actors. Who are the actors? What are their interests?

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Tools for the Political Analysis of Policy Reform Initiatives

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  1. Tools for the Political Analysis of Policy Reform Initiatives Merilee S. Grindle Edward S. Mason Professor of International Development John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University May 2004

  2. Actors • Who are the actors? • What are their interests? • How much do they care about the outcome of the reform initiative? • What resources do they have to influence the outcome? • How much influence do they have over the outcome of the reform initiative?

  3. Institutions • What are the institutional/organizational contexts in which important decisions affecting the reform will take place? • What are the formal and informal “rules of the game” that affect power relationships within these institutional/organizational contexts?

  4. Process • In order for the reform to be effectively carried out, what needs to be done at each phase of the policy process? • Getting the reform on the political agenda • Designing the reform • Gaining approval for the reform • Implementing the reform • Sustaining the reform

  5. Strategy • Given information on actors, institutional contexts, and process, what political and communication strategies are appropriate for promoting the reform?

  6. Assessing Political Actors Relevant to Policy International donors. Governor of Central Bank (?) Business leaders Technocrat with commitments to fiscal discipline Has ambitions to work in IMF Comply with conditionalities Close to president; lead position in cabinet Appointments to ministry Ministry’s technical capacity Very High Without her support, reform will not happen Very High This is a core area of her ministry’s responsibility Minister of Finance Power to amend Stall in committee Vote against Use access to media to discredit government Very High Without approval, president will have to use unpopular decree powers Members of Parliament High Critically affects their ability to provide benefits to their constituencies President (her party) Governors Mayors Spending ministries Need to ensure votes in upcoming elections Government party somewhat supportive Opposition seeks to discredit government

  7. Circle of Influence Graphic Support Opposition Ministry of Public Works  Mayors  Minister of Finance  Reform World Bank   Ministry of Education Think Tanks and the Academia President   Parliament  The Daily Monitor  Undecided

  8. Institutional Contexts for Policy Reform Influence on president Degree of consensus on the reform Use of ties to party and use of appointment powers Access to media Very important Strong cabinet support sends important message to politicians President Ministers Pressure groups or actors through ministers and the government secretariat. Formal rules and procedures that regulate intra-government interactions. Informal customs and relations between government officials. The Cabinet Votes Investigations, inquiries, and public hearings Access to media MPs, political parties, local pressure groups,the parliamentary secretariat. Parliamentary procedures for managing legislation. Importance of committee chairs Party loyalty Vote trading Very important President wishes to avoid using decree power Parliament

  9. Policy Process Matrix Allocate budget from MoF for team, consul. Develop plan for tech. asst. from donors Appoint a technical team from MoF, and influential academics Consultant to train MoF personnel in media relations Circulate tech. rpt. to cabinet, ministries Press conference to stress commitment to fiscal control Tech team to prepare reports Legal consultant to begin drafting legislation Appoint new vice-minister for budgetary management Develop new organizational matrix for better coordination Discuss implications with individual ministry leadership Convene mayors, governors for consultations Tech. team to produce draft Legal consultant to produce draft Allocate funds for design team and consultant Follow up on donor technical assistance Design training modules for ministerial budget officers, local officials

  10. Political and Communication Strategy • What is the political “game plan” for moving ahead? • What is the communication strategy? • What is the general message? • What audiences need to hear this message? • Does the general message need to be tailored to distinct audiences? • How should different audiences be reached?

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