Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean

1. Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, August 29th, 2008

2. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10

3. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts: • Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence) • Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the next decades (high confidence). • Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high rates (high confidence) • Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America(high confidence). • 50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to desertification and salinisation in some areas,by the 2050s (high confidence) • Increase in the number of people experiencing water stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s (medium confidence). • The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – chapter 13: Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC

4. Vulnerability in LAC Tourism (infrastructure, ecotourism) Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) Human Health (tropical , viral, skin, bacterial diseases) Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) Vulnerability: A Function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (McCarthy et al, 2001) Agriculture (food security, bio-fuels) Water Resources (irrigation, energy, human consumption,) Coastal (ports, cities, natural disasters) Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals) Natural Ecosystems (Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological services, CO2)

5. LAC - identification of vulnerable areas Climate Change Coral Reefs Tropical Glaciers www.stormcenter.com Coastal Wetlands Rainforest IPCC 2007a High Mountain Areas of work: priority sectors – technology transfer – strategic alliances – adaptation measures – policy strengthening

6. Climate Change - Water “The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the expected drier conditions in many basins” IPCC – 2008 • The following are expected to be effected as outcomes of climate change: • Precipitations (including extremes) and water vapour • Snow and land ice • Sea level • Evapotranspiration • Soil moisture • Runoff and river discharge • Patterns of large-scale variability • Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological systems, climate change impacts on water are expected to translate into negative outcomes in the following systems and sectors: • Ecosystems and biodiversity • Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry • Human health • Water supply and sanitation • Settlements and infrastructure • Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation IPCC – 2008

7. Climate Change - Food “Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock” Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007 • A food system is vulnerable when one or more of the four components of food security – food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability - is uncertain and insecure. • Concerns for food systems and food security*: • CO2 fertilization effects; • Increase in global mean temperatures; • Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts); • Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall); • Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events; • Impacts of greater weather variability Ericksen, 2007- Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research “Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document” FAO 2007

8. Climate Change - Energy “Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy, or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile”. IEA 2007 • Hydrological changes will directly affect the potential output of hydro-electric facilities – both those currently existing and possible future projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage from flooding and more intense storm events. (IPCC 2008) • Hydropower is the main electrical energy source for most countries in Latin America, and is vulnerable to large-scale and persistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña • Expected further glacier retreat is projected to impact the generation of hydro-electricity in countries such as Colombia and Peru “Key World Energy Statistics” IEA 2007 “Energy Economic information system” OLADE 2007

9. Climate Change - Health “Climate change currently contributes to the global burden of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence)” IPCC - 2007 • Human health, incorporating physical, social and psychological well-being, depends on an adequate supply of potable water and a safe environment. Human beings are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns (more intense and frequent extreme events), and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure. • It has been estimated that the total excess costs for the management of three climate-related diseases (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in different climate change scenarios. (Ebi, 2007*) • The total investment needs for combating diarrheal disease would be $67 billion, malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50 billion in 2030. (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*) IPCC 2007a *“Health impacts of climate change” report to the UNFCCC Secretariat financial and technical support

10. Climate Change - Tourism “Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in destination choice and tourist spending” UNWTO - 2008 IPCC 2007a

11. SECCI – Pillar 4: Adaptation SECTORS EXTERNAL FACTORS Food supply Demographic Pressure (poverty, malnutrition, water, sanitation, sewerage, health and education) (+) Climate Change Water Supply Vulnerability Energy Supply Over-exploitation of Natural Resources (aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports expansion) (-) Health Tourism Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals) National/Sub-national/regional strategy Climate resilient and low carbon economy MAINSTREAMING IDB SECCI Adaptation pilots Country Institutional capacity Sectors Public Outreach Projects Climate Change sensing, monitoring, early warning Social Conflict Preventive risk management Vulnerability Assessments

12. SECCI – Mexico Support to the design and implementation of FEFP, and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE ME-T1089, Support for Sustainable Projects Feasibility Studies, NAFIN Federal Level Assistance to CDM project promoters, CDM methodology development and creation of validation entities Foster commercial bank participation in EE projects PECC Support Team ME-T1110,Support to Energy Efficiency Projects Fund, BANCOMEXT Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation in sectors Economic quantification of the impacts of climate change to the Mexican economy ME-T1088,Support to Mexican Carbon Fund , FOMECAR Institutional strengthening of SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria Hacienda Federal ME-T1082,Support the Development of the National Stern Report Climate Change National Strategy, PECC ME-T1064, Support to Climatic Change National Strategy PECC State Level State Climate Change National Strategy, PEACCs (phase I, 5 states) Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas ME-T1116, T1119… Support to the preparation of the Climate Change Action Plan PEACCs (5 states) MITIGATION ADAPTATION Vulnerability Studies Information analysis and processing Identification NFP climate models. MOU with NCAR and other research centers for the development of climate scenarios to help in the development of vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies Scenario selection C/B Selection GHG inventory Sector Policies Pre-design C/B analysis Pilot Measures Adaptation pilots Adaptation Strategy Other sources. International funding for adaptation and mitigation pilots Design of final pilots Implementation of the selected mitigation projects Implementation

13. SECCI – Colombia DNP CONPES Adaptation and Mitigation Programs MAVDT Restructuring Climate Change Agenda IDB Climate Change Integrated Program CONPES - BioFuels Climate Change National and Sub-national plans SECCI (4 pillars) Political Agencies Implemeting Agencies Hacienda DNP Ideam UPME Cerrejón FINDETER Bancolombia MAVDT Min. Transporte Proexport Colciencia Ecopetrol Private Sector Min. Agricultura Min. Minas y Energía • MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente, vivienda y desarrollo territorial Federación Nacional de Biocombustibles

14. SECCI – NCAR • SECCI is in the process of signing a technical cooperation agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR. • Projects in the pipeline include: • I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change over the Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool. • Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states) • Development of a coupled hydro-meteorological model for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed • Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its implications to dependent communities and ecosystems NCAR – Washington DC May 2008

15. Embalse Limon Embalse olmos Túnel de aducción Túnel de aducción Tunel transandino Conmutador CH1 CH2 SECCI – NCAR • PERU: The IDB is supporting the local government of Lambayeque through the development of a technical cooperation that will help in the preparation of feasibility studies for an irrigation-hydro energy project. • Generation of data from downscaled regional models that could be fed into the development of an Integrated Watersheds Management Plan for Olmos including four main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos, Motupe, La Leche). • Assessment of expected impacts of climate change to the regional climate and the hydrological cycle with emphasis on the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and other climate events such as El Niño. • Development of future vulnerability to climate change of local communities and the planned investment. NCAR – Washington DC May 2008 PIURA CAJAMARCA Riego 37,000 ha en Olmos LAMBAYEQUE TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026

16. THANK YOU WWW.IADB.org/SECCI CP20965T