Care Act 2014 Social Care & Funding Reform Understanding the Costs The Lincolnshire Model East Midlands Regional Con

1. Care Act 2014 Social Care & Funding Reform Understanding the Costs The Lincolnshire Model East Midlands Regional Consultation Event 9 June 2014

2. Lincolnshire Context • Population of 718,800 • Predominantly Low Skilled, Low Paid Economy, Pockets of Deprivation • Lowest quartile in terms of council tax rates • 29% of total service budget spent on social care • Cost of in-house services reduced from £27m to £3m between 2011/12 & 2013/14 • Additional ongoing Cost Pressures identified including: • Demographic Growth (Highest Growth of over 75’s in East Midlands) • On-going pressures within Learning Disabilities Services • Residential and Nursing rate agreements • Comprehensive Spending Review • Impact of Care Act and Dilnot recommendations

3. The Lincolnshire Model • Attempts to estimate the additional cost to Lincolnshire County Council as a direct result of the implementation of the Care Act 2014. • Increase in Asset Thresholds • Implementation of the Care Cap • Statutory Responsibilities to Carers • Additional Assessment Activity • Loss of Existing Service User Income

4. The Lincolnshire Model • Concept of the model is simplicity, recognising that the Surry Model whilst thorough is seen as being complicated therefore the Lincolnshire model attempts to get around this by • Use of Formulae where possible • Use information that is generally available to all (e.g. Service User and Brokerage data) • Use recognised assumptions around areas such inflation and asset values • Incorporate other pieces of intelligence (e.g. Macro Model by Phil Harding) • Easy to adjust to local conditions where required

5. The Lincolnshire Model • Sources of Data Include: • Existing Service User Data • Average levels of Income for Self Funders • Model the impact of threshold increases on existing SU • Establish Attrition Rates • Laing & Buisson Evaluation of Lincolnshire Residential Sector • Used to calculate estimate of self funders • Detail of self funder rates • Brokerage Data • Establish average hourly rates of Dom Care • Establish average hours of care delivered • Land Registry Datato establish average property values around • Terraced • Semi Detached • Detached • Staff and Assessment Data to establish cost of additional assessment activity

6. The Lincolnshire Model

7. The Lincolnshire Model • Findings: • Cost to Lincolnshire over ten years estimated to be £76.6m • Impact of threshold will be felt immediately • £6.2m cost of new services users • Reduction in existing contributions £1.7m • Total Financial Impact is £11.8m • Impact of Care Cap not felt until Year 7 (2022/23) • Due to lower than average cost of residential care • Impact does reduce over time but even at year 10 (2025/26) additional financial impact totals £5.4m

8. The Lincolnshire Model • However: • Based upon assumptions that may change as we get more information • Working Age Adults?? • Local Hotel Costs?? • National Eligibility?? • National Deferred Payments?? • Ability to calculate the impact due to carers continues to be difficult • Assumes everybody appears at once • Therefore our estimates will change!!

9. The Lincolnshire Model • Next Steps: • Collate result from East Midlands Authorities that are already completing the model • Lincolnshire Model will be evaluated by Dr Jose-Luis Fernandez of London School of Economics (Lincolnshire will incorporate any adjustments recommended) • Use Lincolnshire Model alongside the Surrey Model to establish the impact of the care bill at a national and local level • Establish a methodology to model the impact to carers in more detail

10. The Lincolnshire Model Questions??