VIA study in NYC process and initial findings

1. VIA study in NYCprocess and initial findings Ecosystem Based Adaptation (EBA) Mountain Learning Technical and Field Workshop 29th June - 7th July 2013

2. Process • TdR published with detailed list of products and some methodological indications • Proposals received and interview with candidate groups • Selection and signature of SSFA • VIA study started on September last year and is planned to deliver last report in mid September 2013 • So far 2,5/4 reports have been delivered

3. Process…continued • VIA team has made choices among methods along the way, specially for modeling purposes: • For example: Use of MAXent instead of ECOcrop • Or, incorporating new variables into survey thanks to stakeholder review • UNEP-WCMC Cambridge Workshop in 2012 helped shape EbA measures selection process • WCMC continued colaboration has also helped in cirteria selection and identification of EbA measures (expert workshop in Peru, last may 2013).

4. Conceptual framework Exposureto Climatescenarios Vulnerabilitytoclimarechange Sensitivity of theproductivesectors Sensitivity of ecosystemservices Adaptationcapacity

5. Climate scenarios have been developed using IPCC latest models Exposure to Climatic scenarios Vulnerability to climare change Sensitivity of the productive sectors Sensitivity of ecosystem services Adaptative capacity The use of climate models is not recommended for applications in models of ecosystems or at local scale (to much uncertainty)

6. Map of thedistribution of agriculturalproductsdeveloped Exposure to Climatic scenarios Vulnerability to climare change Climate Sensitivity of the productive sectors Ecosystems Water Sensitivity of ecosystem services Society & AgriculturalSist E = f(DClimate, DWater, Dspc) Adaptative capacity Potentialimpact Adaptationcapacity Vulnerability

7. Landcover and land use mapdeveloped Exposition Climaticscenarios Vulnerabilitytoclimarechange Sensitivity of theproductivesectors Sensitivity of ecosystemservices Adaptationcapacity

8. Exposition Climatic scenarios Vulnerability to climare change Sensitivity of the productive sectors Sensitivity of ecosystem services Adaptive capacity • Complete analysis of demography according to last census (2007) • A very complete survey of population, economic activities and perceptions of climate change and variability (being undertaken as we speak) • In depth case studies of certain communities within the NYCLR (to verify and complete survey information)

9. Results • Map of vulnerability and proposal for a vulnerability index • List of EbA options • Limitations are intrinsic in climate scenarios: “The possibility that any single emission path will occur as described in scenarios is highly uncertain” (IPCC, 2000) Furthermore, the altitude variability in the area as well as rough terrain and unavailability of long term set of data for the area are limitations to the results

10. Results So fartheyhaveproduced • Land cover and land use map • Map of agricultural products • List and map of key species for each ecosystem • An analysis of the relation between ecosystems, their services and • Socio economic analysis with present census data (a more in depth data collection just concluded) • Preliminary climate scenarios and analyses of teleconexión; the global IPCC models do not describe past tendencies of the climate in the reserve, and their use for future ecosystem analysis

11. Expected results They will produce • Climatic scenarios with different methodologies • Hidrological analysis (for agricultural products) • Future distribution of key species and services • Future distribution of agricultural products • Map of vulnerability of the agricultural and water sector and proposal for a vulnerability index • List of Eba options

12. …Meanwhile a set of possible options have been identified and discussed as well as no regret options

13. “Entry points” to EbA measures selection VIA Includes projections and modeling of climate, hydrology, species distribution and social and economic dinamics 1 Non Regret measures Based on bibliography and ample consultation with local stakeholders 3 Academic analysis Based on expert consultation and literature to create a set of selection criteria and find posible EbA measures 2 21-05-2013

14. “Entry points” to EbA measures selection (academic analysis) Criteria for identifying EbA measures The criteria identified for defining an EbA option, and discriminate it from a non EbA option, come from the CBD definition of EbA: • The measure reduces the vulnerability of populations to climate change; • The measure increases the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystems, directly or indirectly; • The measure uses biodiversity and ecosystem services in a sustainable manner, without affecting them and, as far as possible, improving them.

15. “Entry points” to EbA measures selection (academic analysis) Criteria for selecting and prioritizing EbA measures • Local population interest in participating in the construction of the EbA measure • Compatibility of the EbA measure with local productive activities and customs • Compatibility of the EbA measure with planned landuse proposals (e.g.. Management plans, or local government plans or others) • Percentage of people affected by climate change effect(s). • Capacity of the measure to diminish vulnerability of population (effectiveness) • Relative importance of the biodiversity and ecosystem services to the population. • Vulnerability of the biodiversity and ecosystem services to climate change • Durability of the measure (how long does it last) • How fast does the measure palliate climate change effects.

16. List of measures selected until now • Landuse planning of the highest areas of the communities (grasslands and water sources) associated to animal husbandry) • Conservation of selected areas that provide key ecosystem services to communities • Agroforestry • Medicinal and aromatic plant collection • Integral management of Vicuña herding • Restoration of ancient canals to provide sustainable agriculture and grasslands