1 / 14

The Renewable Fuels Standard: A Status Report

The Renewable Fuels Standard: A Status Report. Dr. Michael Shelby EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality March 7 th. The RFS – The Program Basics.

alexander-morris
Download Presentation

The Renewable Fuels Standard: A Status Report

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Renewable Fuels Standard: A Status Report Dr. Michael Shelby EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality March 7th

  2. The RFS – The Program Basics • Section 1501 of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005 requires EPA to establish a program to ensure that the pool of gasoline sold in the contiguous 48 states of the U.S. contains specific volumes of renewable fuel • 2006: 4.0 billion gallons/yr • 2007: 4.7 • 2008: 5.4 • 2009: 6.1 • 2010: 6.8 • 2011: 7.4 • 2012: 7.5 • 2013+: Same percent of renewables for 2012 (0.25 billion gallon of which must be cellulosic ethanol) • Each year EPA must convert RFS into percent of gasoline production standards that apply to refiners, importers, gasoline blenders

  3. Relative Value of Different Renewables • Under EPAct, EPA is required to establish an “…appropriate amount of credit” for biodiesel, and to provide for “…an appropriate amount of credit” for using more renewable fuels than are required to meet the RFS • EPAct also specified that 1 gallon of cellulosic ethanol counts as 2.5 gallons for RFS compliance purposes • EPA proposed (September 22, 2006) to base the “Equivalence Value” or credit for other renewables on volumetric energy content in comparison to ethanol (adjusted for renewable content): • Corn-ethanol: 1.0 • Cellulosic biomass ethanol: 2.5 • Biodiesel (alkyl esters): 1.5 • Renewable diesel: 1.7 • Biobutanol: 1.3

  4. Demand for Ethanol In Marketplace Outpacing RFS Requirement If 100% of all Gasoline is E10 76% of all Gasoline @ E10

  5. What The Country May Look Like in 2009 9.6 Bgal Ethanol 100% E10 50-100% E10 <10% E10 10-50% E10 Not Pictured AK: 0% ETOH HI: 100% ETOH DC: 100% ETOH

  6. Emissions & Air Quality* • Impacts will vary by region, since renewable fuel use varies significantly * Incremental Impacts in 2012 compared to 2004 Reference Case

  7. Lifecycle GHG Analysis:Methodology • Using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model developed by Argonne National Laboratory to estimate the GHG impacts of replacing a gallon of conventional fuel with an energy-equivalent gallon of renewable fuel • We combine GREET results with estimates of lifecycle inventories of GHGs and fossil fuel consumption for the transportation sector to estimate the GHG impacts of RFS

  8. GHG Percent Reductions* * The use of 1 Btu of corn-ethanol instead of 1 Btu of gasoline reduces the lifecycle GHG emissions by 25.8%

  9. Energy and CO2* • Petroleum consumption in the transportation sector will be reduced 1.0 - 1.6% • Equivalent to 2.3 - 3.9 billion gallon of petroleum in 2012 • ~95% of the reduction is estimated to be from oil imports • Transportation sector greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalent) will be reduced by 0.4 - 0.6% • Equivalent to 9 - 14 million tons in 2012 * Incremental Impacts in 2012 compared to 2004 Reference Case

  10. Costs of Renewable Fuels Production & Distribution Costs • Increase in the use of renewable fuels is expected to add 0.3 - 1c/gal to the cost of gasoline for the nation as a whole (at $47/bbl crude)* * Incremental Impacts in 2012 compared to 2004 Reference Case

  11. New Analyses for Final Rule • Rule is being developed on accelerated schedule • Not enough time before proposal to undertake a full suite of analyses of the impacts of the RFS • In RFS Proposal, EPA committed to undertake two additional sets of analyses: • Examine the impacts of the wider use of renewable fuels on the U.S. agricultural sector • Examine the energy security implications of the use of renewable fuels

  12. Ag Sector Analysis • Using the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization (FASOM) model developed by Dr. Bruce McCarl of Texas A&M • Evaluating impacts of the RFS on changes in crop commodity prices and usage patterns, net U.S. farm income, fertilizer use, and changes in land use patterns

  13. Energy Security Analysis • EPA is using Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to estimate the energy security implications of the wider use of renewable fuels • ORNL energy security methodology used in the DOT NHTSA CAFE Standard for Light Trucks Model Year 2007-2011, which was finalized in 2006 • NHTSA estimates based on ORNL 1997 study; EPA updating same methodology using AEO 2006 projected fuel market estimates

  14. What’s Next? • RFS Rule likely to go final soon • The President has called for an expansion of the RFS program • 35 billion gallons of renewable and alternative fuels by 2017 • Part of the “20/10” program – a 20% reduction in U.S. gasoline usage within 10 years from now (in 2017) • Stay tuned for more

More Related