AVRUPA KAYNAKLI AEROSOLLERİN ÜLKEMİZE TAŞINIMI KINDAP KARACA

1. AVRUPA KAYNAKLI AEROSOLLERİN ÜLKEMİZE TAŞINIMI KINDAP KARACA

2. Aerosol ? Particulate matter (PM) ? Havada asılı olan katı veya sıvı partiküller... inorganik – organik insan ~ doğal birincil ~ ikincil PM 10 & PM 2.5 ...?

3. Global FineDust (PM< 1µm) Transport Distance (m) 108 106 104 102 Continental SOx, NOx, PM2.5, O3 Regional SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, O3, VOC, NH3 Local Dust, PM10, Ulrafine PM Hours Days Weeks Years

5. Modeling System Meteorological Model (MM5) Emission Modeling (EME) Tracer Trajectory Anthropogenic Biogenic Air Quality Model (CMAQ) Sensitivity Analyses Research Results

6. METEOROLOGICAL MODELING SYSTEM Terrain Regrid Objective Analysis (little_r) Interpf (Initial and Boundary Conditions) MM5

7. backward trajectories January 8, 12:00 January 10, 03:00 21-hour period 36-hour period

9. Total accumulated rainfall (mm) at 00 UTC 7 January, 2002 horizontal distribution of 48-h accumulated rainfall

10. EMISSION MODELEME

11. The CORINAIR 1990 Inventory covers 11 main source sectors (as agreed with EMEP)(McInnes, 1996) • Public power, cogeneration and district heating plants • Commercial, institutional and residential combustion plants • Industrial combustion • Production processes • Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels • Solvent use • Road transport • Other mobile sources and machinery • Waste treatment and disposal • Agriculture • Nature Point – Area – Line Sources Completeness Consistency Transparency

12. Modeling of Anthropogenic Sources Import Gridded Anthropogenic Inventory Data EMEP Speciation Temporal Allocation Height Distribution EMEP annual emissions ~ hourly values temporal allocation factors Microelectronics Center of North Carolina Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (MCNC-SMOKE) temporal allocation factors for monthly, weekly, weekdays-weekend diurnal variations... Model Ready Emissions

13. Speciation NOx SOx VOC PORG - Third Report of the United Kingdom Photochemical Oxidants Review Group-1993 EMEP/CORINAIR - EPA

14. Vertical Distribution Calculations by S. Vidic, Croatian Meteorological Institute

16. Modeling of Biogenic Sources Imported Land-Use Data MM5-TERRAIN Meteorology Temperature & PAR Speciation Estimation of Hourly Emissions Model Ready Emissions

17. Biogenic Emissions • Isoprene (2-methyl-1, 3 –butadiene, C5H8) – most abundant of BVOCs. – oak, pine, spruce, sweetgum, eucalyptus, and aspen – light and temperature dependent – isoprene is removed through reactions with O3, OH, and NO3 • Monoterpenes (C10H16) – spruce and fir are large sources – temperature dependent • NO – emitted from soil – soil temperature and moisture dependent • OVOCs

18. For forests, grasslands and other vegetation, an appropriate system describing the emissions flux of NMVOC species, is based on Guenther [1997]: • Flux (μg m-2 yr-1) = ∫ ε D γ dt εis the average emission potential (μg g-1 h-1) for any particular species D is the foliar biomass density (g dry weight foliage m-2) γis a unit-less environmental correction factor

19. BVOCs play a significant role in the Troposphere chemistry • The hydrocarbons isoprene and several monoterpenes (α-pinene, β-pinene, limonene, etc.) are generally considered the most important compounds for regional ozone formation in Europe (Simpson, 1995; Stockwell et al., 1997). • Some of the VOCs from biogenic sources, such as monoterpenes, can be oxidized by hydroxyl radicals (OH), nitrate radicals (NO3) and ozone (O3), and directly take part in the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation processes. OH NO IsopreneIsoprene peroxy radicals NO2 NO3 O3

20. BEIS

22. Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) CHEMISTRY-TRANSPORTMODEL

23. Model Setup 111 - 132 - 20 RESOLUTION 50 km

24. Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) ICON & BCON Meteorology MCIP Chemistry CCTM Models-3 Input/Output Application Programmer Interface (I/O API) ~predefined, vertical concentration profiles... reads parameters in the meteorological model and converts them to Models-3 I/O API format... CB4 ~ organic – inorganic ethene (ETN), isoprene (ISOP) ve formaldehyde (FORM) PAR, OLE, TOL, XYL, ALD2, NR CB4_AE_AQaerosols and aqueous chemistry JPROG ; PHOT 10-20-30-40-50-600N 0-1-2-3-4-5-10 km 0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 saat Photolysis Rates JPROG Emission EME Model Evaluation Model Application (Transportation PM)

25. ModelPerformance

29. *Regional Bulgaria Romania Poland Ukraine Russia Hungary Slovakia Moldova Belarus Lithuania LatviaEstonia

30. a study of this magnitude for Turkey had never been carried out before emission modeling alone has been the most challenging task a significant impact of European emissions to PM10 concentrations in Istanbul has been demonstrated to be 50% in this study, the first task has been carried out in a comprehensive approach for the long-range PM10 transport, but plenty of sensitivity analyses should be performed for other pollutants in an ensemble way of thinking observation network system Anthropogenic / natural emissions an emission processing strategy should be developed considering national characteristics This emission inventory and emission modeling processes should match and be made suitable for the current studies and technologies in Europe evaluation should be researched for a long period of time CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE STUDIES