Hurricane Dorian in Florida 1-888-653-7229

1. Hurricane Dorian in Florida +1-888-653-7229

2. Hurricane Dorian is an active tropical cyclone across United States. Hurricane Dorian is an active tropical cyclone currently threatening the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States. The fourth named storm and second hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, Dorian developed from a tropical wave in the Central Atlantic.

3. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • Hurricane Dorian is not your typical Florida tropical cyclone. • This storm has been far from ordinary. Here’s where storms near the same spot as Dorian typically end up. • Hurricane Dorian has been a tricky forecast and an unusual storm from the start-both because of its small size and the surrounding weather systems that will determine its fate. Typically, a storm located in its position of more than 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico on Thursday afternoon would not make landfall on the Florida coast. • We can look to past storms for guidance on how Dorian may or may not-behave. Historical analogues have their limits, however, as each storm is governed by its own set of circumstances.

4. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • As of 11 a.m. Thursday, Dorian was swirling over 21.4 degrees north latitude, 67.2 degrees west longitude. Since 1947, a NOAA database shows that 30 hurricanes have passed within 100 miles of this location over the open ocean, including the previous iteration of Dorian in late July 2013. (The National Hurricane Center recycles names every six years unless a storm causes enough damage/casualties to prompt the name’s retirement.) • Of these storms, only five have made landfall in Florida, two of which passed directly over the Florida Keys. Two hit the eastern coast of Florida. Among them was Frances in 2004, which battered Port St. Lucie as a Category 2 storm.

5. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • “While Frances’s track to date isn’t a good analog for Dorian, its future track isn’t a horrible analog,” wrote Philip Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. “[Dorian] looks like it will slow up as it heads toward land, too just like Frances did in 2004.” • There were others, too. An unnamed storm in 1947 plowed ashore with Category 4 winds in Fort Lauderdale. One additional storm Kate, in 1985 danced over Cuba before recurving north in the Gulf of Mexico and coming ashore near Panama City.

6. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • “The majority of them recurved before reaching the United States,” explains Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang’s tropical weather expert. “The notable examples of ones that didn’t recurve include Irma” in 2017. • So all told, two out of the 30 storms made landfall on the eastern coast of Florida. Ten of the 30 made landfall in the United States as at least a tropical storm.

7. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • We can also work backward to see where storms affecting Florida generally come from. Those that move ashore along the eastern coast of Florida generally move in from the south or southeast. We looked at 128 systems that have passed near or directly over Florida’s eastern coast since the 1800s. About 11 of those passed within 100 miles of Dorian’s Thursday morning position, about 8.5 percent. In other words, the forecast path of Dorian is unusual but has precedent.

8. Hurricane Dorian Affects in Florida 2019 +1-888-653-7229 • One of the more bizarre elements of Dorian’s predicted path is the broad left curve it will probably make between Friday and the weekend. When tropical cyclones drift north, they ordinarily recurve to the right once they’re swept up by mid-latitude weather systems. • What’s spurring Dorian’s unusual jaunt? The Bermuda High. It’s a ridge of high pressure that parks over the Atlantic this time of year, dominating large-scale steering currents and acting as an atmospheric guardrail that will guide Dorian along.

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