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WRDC

WRDC. Population Committee Report 10/22/10. First Meeting 10/15/10. Meeting objectives Meet Review available data and resources Discuss timeline for finished product by 11/30 Ultimate objective Get the group to agree on a methodology for state projection.

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WRDC

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  1. WRDC Population Committee Report 10/22/10

  2. First Meeting 10/15/10 • Meeting objectives • Meet • Review available data and resources • Discuss timeline for finished product by 11/30 • Ultimate objective • Get the group to agree on a methodology for state projection

  3. State Population Projection Methodology • Use official state forecast out to 2055 • New 2010 Census data for AZ expected January 2011 • County-level data due out March 2011 • Cohort-level data necessary for modeling available Summer 2011 • Adjust the 2010 starting point downward • Create a low/medium/high set of scenarios • Benchmark rates of growth for AZ based on US Census scenarios (1999 – 2100) • Fertility, mortality and international migration

  4. County and Water Basin Projections • Use official county estimates to 2055 • Adjust numbers for recession • County population will be translated into water basins • Committee acknowledges counties won’t grow in constant terms related to one another • Committee not comfortable moving shares of population between counties in outer years

  5. Next Steps • ADWR staff to develop a range of statewide projections • ADWR staff to spread county population to water basins • Group will reconvene to review estimates

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