1 / 24

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025?

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors. Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan. 2.

alice
Download Presentation

How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. How Many Bachelor’s Degrees Does Florida Need by 2025? Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment September 26, 2012 Tampa, Florida Presentation by Jan Ignash, Board of Governors

  2. Example: BOG 2012-2025 System Strategic Plan 2 Goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees by the year 2025, is about 7,000 more than the Historical Trend

  3. Key Definitions 3 • Demand: How many degree holders does Florida’s economy need ? • Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of the nation or of other states • Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of other nations • Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit • Supply: How many degree holders can Florida’s postsecondary system generate? • Historical growth trends • Increasing the high school graduation rate • Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates • Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates • Increasing adult education

  4. Demand Methodologies

  5. Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of the nation or of other states 5 Florida’s Educational AttainmentAdditional Degrees Needed Among 25-34 yr olds In 2010, Florida needed an additional 132,000 25-34 year olds with bachelor’s and graduate degrees to meet the national and “BIG 10” Benchmarks of 31%. EDR projects Florida’s 2025 population of 25-34 year olds will only grow by 500,000 from the 2010 level. If Florida increased its percentage to 31% by 2025, then half, or 287,000, of Florida’s new 25-34 year olds would need a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Source: Board staff analysis of American Community Survey (ACS)– see link; and, EDR population estimates (Nov. 2011) for 25-34 year old age group – see link. [See also Supporting Slides 2-7.]

  6. Demand Methodology: Benchmarking Florida’s degree attainment goals against the degree attainment performance of other nations The U.S. College Attainment Gap Compared to the Most Educated OECD Countries 6 Source: SOURCE: OECD, Education at a Glance (2011), Appendix A: table A1.3a; available at: http://www.oecd.org/education/highereducationandadultlearning/48630299.pdf [See also Supporting Slide 8.]

  7. Demand Methodology: Establishing degree attainment goals based on economic/fiscal benefit 7 Educational Attainment Impact on State Economies When broken into quintiles, a state’s Educational Attainment is strongly associated with its per capita Gross Domestic Product and per capita Net Earnings. per capita GDP per capita Net Earnings Source: BOG staff analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Real GDP in 2005 Chained dollars – see link; and 2010 Census population data from 2012 Statistical Abstract (table 16) – see link. [See also Supporting Slides 9-10.]

  8. Counting Jobs by Education Level – The Effects of Overlap 8 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Tables 1.11 and 1.12– see link.

  9. How We Classify the Educational Levels Needed by Various Occupations Yield Significantly Different Results 9 SOURCE: Florida data is from the Dept. of Economic Opportunity; National data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics – see link.

  10. The Business Perspective on Job Classification 10 • More than half (53%) of business leaders say their companies face a very or fairly major challenge in recruiting non-managerial employees with the skills, training, and education their company needs, despite unemployment close to 10% and millions of Americans seeking jobs at the time of our survey. • The majority of business leaders (63%) believe a four-year bachelor’s degree is the important degree to achieve success in the workplace, while only 18% believe a career or technical credential and 14% believe a two-year associate’s degree are important to achieve such success. • More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). They also recognize the potential to affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%). Across The Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap (2011)

  11. Supply Methodologies

  12. Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsBachelor’s Degrees 12 Historically, the SUS produces 63% - 65% of Florida’s Bachelor’s degrees Florida Total Includes: SUS, ICUF, CIE, FCS. Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data. Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate of 3,000 per year.

  13. Supply Methodology: Historical growth trendsGraduate Degrees 13 Sources: U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics (IPEDS) data. Note*: Projections for ‘Florida (Historical trend)’ are based on maintaining the 8yr historical average growth rate. [See also Supporting Slide 11.]

  14. Supply Methodology: Increasing the high school graduation rate Florida’s Race To The Top GoalsDouble the Percent Earning College Credit 14 as of March 2011 Source: Florida Department of Education [See also Supporting Slide 12.]

  15. Supply Methodology: Increasing the college continuation rate of high school graduates 15 Florida’s College Continuation Rateis among the lowest in the country Florida is ranked 38th in the percent of its public and private high school graduates who continue on to an Associates or higher degree-granting institutionin any state. 74% 60% 64% 63% 57% 65% 66% 70% 57% 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4thQuartile 59% USA: 63% BIG 10: 63% Source: US DOE 2011 Digest of Education Statistics, Table 212 – see link. Note: The most recently available data is for 2008 high school graduates. [See also Supporting Slides 13-14.]

  16. Supply Methodology: Increasing the continuation rate of A.A. graduates 16 Based on historical trends, AA degree production is projected to increase to more than 100,000 by 2025. Florida College System’s AA Degrees & Cont. Ed. Actual and Projections: What Can the FCS Contribute? Historically, 45%-50% of AA recipients continue their education within the SUS or ICUF the following year. Source: BOG staff analysis of FCS degree production and FETPIP’s Annual Outcomes Report. Note: FCS AA recipients who re-enrolled in FCS are not counted as Continuing Education.

  17. Supply Methodology: Increasing adult education 17 Potential Additional Annual Supply of Completers who Do Not Continue and Non-Completers Annually, more than 200,000 of Florida’s students do not continue their postsecondary education. The Florida College Access Network has reported that 2.1 million adults in Florida went to College but did not finish. And, between 2008-11 more than 100,000 students left the FCS and SUS after only completing half of their degree program. Sources: FETPIP – 2009-10 Annual Outcomes Report http://www.fldoe.org/fetpip/pdf/0910pdf/pubs0910text.pdf Note: GED Completers data based on national report (see link) and percentage continuing education is based on FETPIP data (from smaller sample).

  18. The Dual Nature of the Net Migration of Degree Holders

  19. Florida’s Net Domestic Migration 19 Domestic Migration In/Out of Florida by Educational Attainment Level (2006-2010) • During the past 5 years, 39% of Florida’s Net Migrants (25 years and older) have had a Bachelor’s or graduate degree, which is considerably higher than the educational attainment of Florida’s resident population (of 25%). Source: US Census 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates of Geographic Mobility – Tables B07009 & B07409. [See also Supporting Slides 15-16.]

  20. Next Steps

  21. Summary of Degree Goals 21 Notes: OECD goal based on College Credential Dashboard estimates for Florida’s contribution – see link.

  22. Three Primary Policy Areas for Achieving Degree Targets 22

  23. Educational Attainment by County Where Do we Expect Florida’s Growth? 23

  24. To Recap • Board of Governors SUS goal to produce 90,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 can be achieved. • Combined with ICUF, CIE and FCS institutions, the system could be producing 128,000 bachelor’s degrees each year by 2025 if we simply do what we’re doing now. • IF WE CONTINUE DOING WHAT WE’RE DOING, IS THAT ENOUGH?

More Related