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Monetary Policy Report July 2012

Monetary Policy Report July 2012. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regions Annual percentage change. Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank.

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Monetary Policy Report July 2012

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  1. Monetary Policy ReportJuly 2012

  2. Figure 1.1. GDP in different regionsAnnual percentage change Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

  3. Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 1.3. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 1.4. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 1.5. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate for the period 1999 up to the point when the Riksbank started to publish forecasts for the repo rate during 2007. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate. Source: The Riksbank

  7. Figure 1.6. Government bond rates with 10 years left to maturityPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin

  8. Figure 1.7. Unit labour costIndex, 1999 = 100 Source: OECD

  9. Figure 1.8. GDP in Sweden, the euro area and the USAQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 1.9. Inflation in the euro area and the USAAnnual percentage change Note: This refers to HICP for the euro area and CPI for the United States. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat

  11. Figure 1.10. Unemployment in the euro area and the USAPer cent of the labour force Sources: National Sources and the Riksbank

  12. Figure 1.11. Housing investments in the USABillion USD Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Figure 1.12. World GDP and the world market for Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change Note. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports. Sources: IMF and the Riksbank

  14. Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100 Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Source: The Riksbank

  15. Figure 1.14. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  16. Figure 1.15. Swedish exports and the world market for Swedish exports Annual percentage change Note. The export market aims to measure import demand in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of the 15 countries receiving the most Swedish exports. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 1.16. Gross fixed capital formation and GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  18. Figure 1.17. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change and per cent of disposable income Note. Saving ratio including saving in collective insurance schemes. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 1.18. Households’ wealth and debtPer cent of disposable income Note. There is no regular publication of official data on household total wealth. The series refers to the Riksbank’s estimate of households’ financial assets and property assets. Q1 2012 is largely outcomes, while with effect from Q2 2012 the data is based on the Riksbank's assessments. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  20. Figure 1.19. Number of hours worked and employedMillions and thousands, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 1.20. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 1.21. RU indicatorStandard deviation Note. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1. Source: The Riksbank

  23. Figure 1.22. GDP-gap and the labour market gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. GDP gap refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

  24. Figure 1.23. Wages according to the National Accounts and to the short-term wage statisticsAnnual percentage change Note. The short-term wage statistics for the last 12 months are preliminary and are usually revised upwards. The dashed yellow line in the figure show the Riksbank’s assessment of the final outcome according to the statistics. Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  25. Figure 1.24. Cost pressures in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 1.25. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 1.26. CPIFAnnual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Figure 1.27. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  29. Figure 1.28. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period. Source: The Riksbank

  30. Figure 2.1. GDP in the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 2.2. GDP abroadTCW-weighed, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  32. Figure 2.3. Inflation abroadTCW-weighted, annual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  33. Figure 2.4. Policy rate abroadTCW-weighted, per cent, quarterly averages Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

  34. Figure 2.5. TCW-weighted nominal exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100, quarterly averages Note. TCW refers to a weighting of Sweden's most important trading partners. Source: The Riksbank

  35. Figure 2.6. ExportQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  36. Figure 2.7. Gross fixed capital formationQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  37. Figure 2.8. Household consumptionQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  38. Figure 2.9. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  39. Figure 2.10. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  40. Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  41. Figure 2.12. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  42. Figure 2.13. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  43. Figure 2.14. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  44. Figure 2.15. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  45. Figure 2.16. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  46. Figure 2.17. Alternative repo-rate pathsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  47. Figure 2.18. Hours gapPer cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  48. Figure 2.19. UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  49. Figure 2.20. CPIAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  50. Figure 2.21. CPIFAnnual percentage change, quarterly averages Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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