Energy Security and Natural Resources

1. Energy Security and Natural Resources Challenging ‘Resource Curse' model in Bangladesh Anu Muhammad April 2013 Photo: Shilpi Barua

2. What is Energy Security? • Energy Security can be described as ”the uninterrupted physical availability at a price which is affordable, while respecting environment concerns”. (International Energy Agency) • Energy security is a term for an association between national security and the availability of natural resources for energy consumption. Access to cheap energy has become essential to the functioning of modern economies.

3. What is sustainable development? • ‘meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’ ( Our Common Future, The Brundtland Commission, formally the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) report, United Nations. 1987.) • Sustainable development (SD) is a pattern of resource use, that aims to meet human needs while preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but also for generations to come (sometimes taught as ELF-Environment, Local people, Future) • while oil still accounts for the largest share of world commercial fuel production, some 2 billion people still rely on the most basic fuel of all, wood and combustible waste products, for simple cooking and heating.’

4. Energy and Development: Diverge Scenario • growth winners such as US, Canada, Australia, and Norway are rich in resources • availability of natural resources should be strong component of growth, but there are opposite experiences too…… • Many natural resource abundant economies tend to grow slower than economies without substantial resources. • growth losers, such as Nigeria, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Angola, are all resource-rich, while the Asian tigers: Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, are all resource-poor. (Institutions and the resource curse: HalvorMehlum, Karl Moene and RagnarTorvik, 2nd March 2005)

5. How Resources turn into Curse? • The surprisingly negative outcomes in oil- and mineral-dependent countries are referred to as the “resource curse.”(Covering Oil..) • Natural resource abundance does therefore hinder economic growth in countries with grabber friendly institutions, but does not in countries with producer friendly institutions. (Institutions and the resource curse: HalvorMehlum, Karl Moene and RagnarTorvik, 2nd March 2005) • Many countries rich in natural resources exploit and squander that wealth to enrich a minority while corruption and mismanagement leave the majority impoverished. (COVERING OIL: Edited by Svetlana Tsalik and Anya Schiffrin, Open Society Institute, 2005 • according to the second Arab Human Development Report, released by the United Nations in 2003, high dependence on oil in parts of the Middle East has led to “the over concentration of wealth in a few hands,” and “faltering economic growth,” and “weakened the demand for knowledge.”

6. Saudi Arabia Somalia Iraq Afghanistan Libya India Ecuador Colombia Myanmar Nigeria Angola Sudan Indonesia Global Military expenditure goes beyond $1 trillion a year 1 per cent of this could provide safe water for 7 billion people in the earth (Source: UNDP, 2000) Oil-gas-coal corporate bodies are the main patrons of autocracy and war for grabbing resources, therefore prime beneficiaries. Occupation, Colonization, internal Militarization, war, genocide..

7. Examples of Internal Militarization • India: almost one third of India is now ruled by military, most of these areas are resource rich. • Nigeria: Shell pays local security forces that commit abuses in Niger Delta; fails to aggressively step in during the trial and execution of local leaders (1990s) • Nigeria: Chevron recruited and transported Nigerian military and police who shot at and killed peaceful protesters from Chevron helicopters (1998 and 1999). Poet activist was hanged for protest. • Burma: Unocal contracts with Burmese military to provide security for Yadana pipeline; villagers are killed, raped, tortured, and forced to work building infrastructure (1994 – present) • Colombia: Colombian riot police brought in to remove members of U’wa indigenous people resisting Occidental Petroleum’s oil projects (late 1990s). In an unending war against people in the name of anti-drug operation. • Ecuador: ‘the city of shell’ in Amazon jungle, near Quito, is protected by military base.

8. Four types of countries • US, Australia, UK, France, Germany….command over own resources, also on resources in many other countries of the world. Beneficiaries of colonial system, old and new. • Norway, China, Malaysia, India, Brazil, Vietnam: growing economies, good control over own resources, developed national institutions, now expanding overseas. • Sudan, Nigeria, Colombia….. (resource curse group), no command over own resources, domination by IOCs or centre countries. • Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador had been in resource curse group, trying to build new direction by changing policies, revising international contracts, building new institutions (coming out of resource curse group). Where does Bangladesh stand?

9. What happens in resource curse countries? Continuity from colonial period...... • “On average, countries which started the period with a high value of resource-based exports to GDP tended to experience slower growth during the following twenty years...”Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, Harvard University, 1997. • In Saudi Arabia, whose proven crude oil reserves are the greatest in the world, per capita income has plunged from $28,600 in 1981 to $6,800 in 2001, increased again with high price of oil in 2008. Autocracy. Highest military contract with the US in 2011. • In Nigeria and Venezuela, real per capita income has decreased to the levels of the 1960s, while many other countries—Algeria, Angola, Congo, Ecuador, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, and Trinidad Tobago—are back to the levels of the 1970s and early 1980s.

10. In 2009, Nigeria exported close to 500 Bcf of LNG. Nigeria has vast natural gas, coal, and renewable energy resources that could be used for power generation, industrialization. However, the country is suffering from huge load shedding, poverty, unemployment and very weak infrastructure. Resources and crisis: Nigeria

11. More on Nigeria • Nigeria had an estimated 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven natural gas reserves (2010), makes Nigeria the ninth largest natural gas reserve holder in the world and the largest in Africa, also largest oil reserve in the region. BP Statistical Review of World Energy • All the oil revenues -- $350 billion in total – did not seem to add to the standard of living at all. Between 1970 and 2000, the poverty rate increased from about one-third of the population to almost 70 per cent of the population. • (Covering Oil, Ed. by Svetlana Tsalik and Anya Schiffrin, Open Society Institute, NY, 2005

12. Myanmar, Ecuador and Congo • “An energy rich country, Myanmar is now suffering the worst fuel shortage in the region. Its own citizens are starved of electricity, but the regime sells a steady stream of natural gas to neighbouring Thailand. Yet this export success has not saved the public finances. Current reserves are estimated at no more than US$240 million-enough to cover only the next six weeks of imports. A shortage of foreign exchange has caused the black-market price of gasoline up by 600% in less than a year.”(The Economist, April 4, 2002) • Since 1970, in the period of oil boom, the official poverty level grew from 50 to 70 percent, under or unemployment increased from 15 to 70 percent, and public debt increased from $240 million to $16 billion. Allocation for the poorest segments declined from 20 to 6 percent. • (John Perkins: Confessions of an economic Hitman) • Seventy five percent of Congolese natural resources are at the present owned by foreign companies. Congo rates #158 and #142 in terms of per capita GDP and human development index. (http://www.dominionpaper.ca/articles/119).

13. UNCTAD on FDI in the LDCs • According to a United Nations report, 66% of foreign investment in the 1990s went to the developing nations of Africa. It has increased to 87% during 2000-2005. Only Angola, Chad, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan, the four oil producing countries, are receiving 56% of foreign investment. UNCTAD notes, foreign investment in these developing countries is generally ‘resource seeking’. The type of this investment is such that it has neither created jobs nor has it encouraged capacity building or technical development at the local level. This sector is like an island where the ones who profit at the end of the day are the multinational companies (UNCTAD, The Least Developed Countries Report, 2006).

14. Joseph Stiglitz on natural resources in developing economies • ‘A country that sells off its natural resources, privatizes its oil company, and borrows against future revenues, may experience a consumption binge that raises GDP, but the accounting framework should show that the country has actually become poorer.’ • The IMF should not put undue pressure on countries to privatize their extractive industries. (In many developing countries, privatization is tantamount to selling the natural resources to foreign firms, since there are no domestic firms with the capital and skills necessary to undertake the task of extraction.) • A country like Bangladesh, with limited reserves of natural gas, might want to exercise caution when selling its gas, given that there is no other effective way of insuring itself against an increase in the price of energy over the long run.’ (Covering Oil, Ed. by Svetlana Tsalik and Anya Schiffrin, Open Society Institute, NY, 2005

15. World Bank: neo-liberal reform a tool for grabbing natural resources “The Bank’s Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy division -through an integrated set of services, loans, technical assistance, guarantees and knowledge products- provides advice on legal, fiscal and contractual issues, regulation, sector restructuring, and privatization. These efforts help state-enterprises transition to the private sector –reducing the drain on the public sector, lowering costs of production, and providing a level playing field that encourages entrepreneurs to enter a competitive market.” (http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,menuPK:463288~contentMDK:20219974~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:336930,00.html)

16. Lessons: Global and local • Resource abundance does not automatically ensure sustainable development. • For many countries resources become curse. ‘Resource curse’ phenomenon is now a real issue. • Militarization, war, and conflicts have been closely linked with grabbing energy resources. • Corruption, poverty, inequality, repression go together with natural resources for many countries. • Increasing deregulated investment on speculation of oil and mineral resources create artificial crisis and more distorted market. • Package programmes in the name of development and ‘economic reform’ pushed by World Bank, IMF et al is proved to be disastrous for developing economies, created more insecurity and unsustainibility.

17. Bangladesh: A country of Potential and Poverty Area: 144000 sq km Population more than 150 million, density more than 1300 per sq km. One of the most fertile land, Agriculture is the main livelihood. Rich water system and biodiversity: rivers, canals, ponds and wetlands Industrious and creative work force Oil gas resources in onshore and offshore, coal in north of the country. But trapped in a cycle of poverty and vulnerability.

18. Energy and Power: matter of concern • One of the lowest energy consumption, only higher than Nepal in South Asia. Electricity consumption per capita in world 2875, in Bangladesh: 208 kw/h. (World Bank: World Development Indicators, Internet, accessed 6.9.11) • Only 48.5 percent of total population have access to electricity. • Regular power failure and shortage create huge problems for HH, industry, agriculture even hospitals. • Demand side unregulated (while industry, hospital, agriculture suffering from load shedding, luxurious consumption including AC use experienced highest growth). • Supply side dominated by corporate interest, becoming unstable and costly (increasing IOC and IPP share, rental, quick rental..). • Lack of vision, no comprehensive energy policy. Compartmental initiative. • National capability potential is suffering from hostile policies and

19. Power sector: main features • Installed power generation capacity: more than 7000 MW. Real generation: 5935 MW high on 19.05.13 (website) • Government: 60%, Private (including foreign): 40% • Primary fuel to generate electricity (%): Gas: 77.31, Diesel:10.45, Furnace oil: 5.03, Coal: 3.76, Water: 3.45. (GOB 2011, Bangladesh Arthanoitik Shameekkha)

20. Present Reserve and Production Levels of Natural Gas The existing natural gas is mainly used in electricity, fertilizer, industry, transport and household activity. The reserve and production situation of gas up to 2010 are as follows:   • Total number of gas fields- 23 • Number of gas fields which are in production- 17 (number of wells-79) • Total reserve of extractable gas (proven and probable)- 20.5 TCF (Trillion Cubic Feet) • Total reserve remaining- 12 TCF (may increase to 20 TCF) • Daily gas exploration- about 2000 MMCF (Million Cubic Feet) • Production by Petrobangla- 960 MMCF • Production by International Oil Companies- 1004 MMCF • Daily demand of gas-2500+ MMCF • Daily shortage of gas supply- 500+ MMCF (http://www.asiatradehub.com/bangladesh/oil2.asp)

21. BD entered into ‘resource curse’ group? • In 1974 Petrobangla was established. • In 1975 gas fields were bought from Shell. • In 1982-83 WB came up with ‘development’ scheme to bring IOCs in the sector. Energy sector reform. • Since 1993 signing of PSCs began. In 2004 coal contract. All secret, not even discussed in parliament or parliamentary committees. • Since 1996 private sector power generation policy. IFIs stopped funding for state power plant, put Bangladesh dependent on IPPs. For details see: Anu Muhammad (2008): Kothai Jachche Bangladesh, Sanghati and Development or Destruction, Essays on Global Hegemony, Corporate Grabbing and Bangladesh, Sraban

22. Bangladesh divided into blocks for PSCs with IOCs

23. Main features of FDI in Energy Sector • PSCs were signed with IOCs to purchase gas at average 250 taka when it could be possible to get it at around 25 taka from national companies. • PSCs were signed to purchase its own gas by costly foreign currency from the IOCs when it was possible to get it by local currency from its own company. • Policy was taken to bring IOCs or Foreign national company to explore gas when BAPEX, the national exploration agency, had the ability to do the same. • Rich blocks in eastern side were awarded for IOCs. • Common property has been turned into private property.

24. PSCs during 1990s In 1993-94, Six PSCs were awarded in the first round • Cairn Energy-Holland Sea Search (Block 15, Block 16), later Halliburton/Santos Block 16, Shell/Cairn -Block 15 • Occidental (Block 12, Block 13 & 14), later UNOCAl to Chevron • Okland-Rexwood (Block 17 & 18), later Oakland/Tullow • United Meridian Corporation (Block 22) In 1997, four PSCs were awarded in second licensing round • Shell-Cairn Energy-Bapex (Block 5, Block 10), • Tullow-Chevron-Texaco-Bapex (Block 9) • Unocal-Bapex (Block 7), later Chevron -BAPEX

25. Result: Development or Burden? • By leasing out most resource- rich gas blocks to IOCs, Bangladesh becomes hostage. • Cost of production of gas and electricity increased by 10 to 30 times. Fiscal deficit increases every year. • Instead of saving public money, drainage and corruption increased manifold. • In the last 10 years IOCs received 160 billion taka by selling gas to GOB, which could be purchased by 20 billion taka from national agency in local currency. • Drainage of foreign currency equivalent to 140 billion taka is a direct result of FDI in energy sector only. • National agencies were made marginalised to give space to MNCs or foreign state agency. Erosion of national capability.

26. Number speaks: construction of myth to rationalize grabbing Two arguments behind bringing MNCs in Energy sector: 1. capital scarcity and 2. lack of technical ability. But, • Every year one at least 500 MW power plant could be built by the money spent as subsidy for buying gas from MNCs, about 2.5 billion taka. It is increasing as their share is growing. BD spends more money with MNCs, not less. • When Bapex-Petrobangla spends Tk. 1 billion to drill a well, MNCs usually do it by costing 6 to 15 times. UNOCAL spent Tk. 15.31 billion to drill a well. What is wasteful? • MNCs made big blow out, not national agency. Who is more efficient? • When MNCs selling gas at $3-$4 per thousand CFT, Bapex could give it at 10% price. Who is more capable?

27. Confession from WB and ADB • “Although the individual companies responsible for ADB-financed gas sector projects are profitable, Petrobangla is incurring losses due to the increasing share of more expensive gas from IOCs”. (http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/SAPE/BAN/SAP-BAN-2009-36/SAP-BAN-2009-36.pdf) • “Petrobangla buys gas from IOCs at a price linked to the international price of fuel oil. Petrobangla will incur increasing deficits, leading to a negative cash flow.” (World Bank: Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh: Issues of long run Sustainability, October 1999.)

28. Their solutions: To solve the fiscal deficit, raise gas price. To solve the pressure on foreign currency, export gas. Peoples suffering and rejection: GOB has been periodically increasing gas price and price of electricity. Rising cost of production and cost of living an obvious outcome. Independent experts and people in general opposed export move taken jointly by GOB, MNCs, IFIs, embassies. Otherwise present gas and power crisis could have been doubly worse. For detail analysis, Anu Muhammad: Development or Destruction...., 2007 and Solutions from WB and ADB

29. 5 billion US$ due from US and Canadian company • Bangladesh lost 500 bcf gas for blowout in Magurchhara (1997) and Tengratila (2005). This amount of gas equals to gas used for power generation in 20 months for whole Bangladesh. • Compensation due from US company Chevron and Canadian company NIKO. The price of gas lost only is more than 5 billion US dollar, which is 7 times of yearly budget allocation for energy sector. Still today compensation is unpaid. • WB, ADB or other IFIs used to be very vocal about everything but collectively remain silent about this compensation issue.

30. “South Asia is emerging as an important region both economically and politically. President Obama shifted focus from Iraq to South Asia as soon as he took office in 2008. The strategic alliances in South Asia–with India, China, Pakistan and the US being the key players –are largely to secure control of fossil fuels, minerals, and other natural resources, and the infrastructure such as oil and gas pipelines and ports to import and export them.” The Militarization of India, http://www.counterpunch.org/2011/05/27/the-militarization-of-india/) Is Bangladesh becoming a victim of new global strategy?

31. Wikileaks: Who decides on peoples lives and resources? • ‘US diplomats privately pressurised the Bangladeshi government into reinstating a controversial coal mine which had been closed following violent protests’. • ‘Later on in the cable, Moriarty privately noted: "Asia Energy, the company behind the Phulbari project, has sixty percent US investment. Asia Energy officials told the Ambassador they were cautiously optimistic that the project would win government approval in the coming months.”’ • ‘Energy Adviser agreed to build support for the project through the parliamentary process.’ http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/21/wikileaks-cables-us-bangladesh-coal-mine • The US ambassador to Bangladesh persuaded the government in July last year to award two blocks in the Bay of Bengal to Conoco Phillips and to permit Chevron to set up a compressor in Muchai, a CNN-IBN report said on Friday quoting US diplomatic cables leaked by Wikileaks. http://www.bdinn.com/news/conoco-phillips-chevron-contracts-pm%E2%80%99s-adviser-us-envoy-agreed-deals- wikileaks/

32. Oil gas blocks in Bay of Bengal leased out on 16.6.11 Main concern: 100 per cent export opportunity for Conoco-Phillips (15.5.1 Subject to Articles 15.5.4, 15.5.5 and 15.6 Bangladesh share not more than 20% (15.5.4), but needs to build its own pipeline to bring it onshore. Production limit is relaxed (to more than 7.5%) Joint Review committee and management committee are dominated by IOC. Conoco phillips has bad records for blowout, compensation conditions are not concrete. Authority over Bay of Bengal is crucial for bangladesh. That is being threatened.

33. PSC 2012 Amendments to meet MNCs demand (upto May 2013) • Almost import price • Cost recovery share increased • Third party sales right • No corporate tax

34. Coal: location, depth and reserve

35. Phulbari coal project • The Bangladesh Government originally awarded an exploration license to the Australian company BHP Minerals in 1994, which however, decided against developing a coal mining operation in the area. • In 1997 Asia Energy was formed and in 1998 BHP transferred its licence to this newly formed company, incorporated in London Stock Exchange Alternative Investment Market, changed its name to Global Coal Management after August 2006 killings in Phulbari. • Its major shareholders have been Polo Resources USA, RAB Capital, UBS, Fidelity Group, Barclays, Credit Suisse, LR Global, Ospraie Management, Capital Group and Argos Greater Europe Fund. • Project of 30-35 years, for Bangladesh only 6 per cent royalty. • 75-80 per cent of the coal was planned for export through Sundarban mangrove forest.

36. Cost for Bangladesh 3 crop, highly fertile area, free from flood and natural disaster Photo: Phillip Gain • 656 sq km area of this region would be affected by open pit mining • Destruction of rivers, canals, water bodies, fish farms, ducks, hens and cattle, thousands of shops, and business and commercial houses.

37. Why to oppose open pit? • About 200,000 people from 150 villages will have to be evacuated from only one mine area. • Dewatering in the mining area will not only disturb the major aquifer, it will also damage the most potential and massive aquifer of north-western Bangladesh, making the area a desert-like place. • Huge area outside the mining area will be affected through groundwater depletion, that currently provides a significant portion of the country’s food supply. Open pit mine Project would therefore have serious impacts for the food security of the entire country. • After destroying food security and human security, by exporting coal it was planning to destroy energy security too.

38. Peoples Mobilization against Resource Curse

39. Peoples collective efforts • Resistance against gas export by depriving people and the economy (2002-2004). • Phulbari uprising and national resistance in 2006 regarding phulbari coal project. 3 young men gave their lives to save the country from unprecedented disaster • Resisted open pit mining and export of coal in Phulbari. Resistance is on (latest long march 24-30 Oct, 2010). • Peoples tribunal against World Bank, IMF and ADB has identified problems of these ‘friend philosopher guide’ (2007). • Protest continuing against gas deal with conoco phillips with export provision since 2008, (including two general strikes in 2009 and 2011). • Brought energy and sustainable development in peoples thinking and actions, as well as in political agenda.

40. Phulbari Agreement Phulbari Agreement was signed between GOB and the agitating people (August 30 2006). The main points were: • ‘Phulbari coal project will be scrapped and Asia energy will be ousted from the country.’ • ‘No open pit mining will be allowed anywhere in the country’. • ‘Mining method and other steps for coal development and utilization will be taken after proper consultation with the people keeping national interest in tact’.

41. Verdicts from Peoples Movements: Challenges against Resource Curse • People of Bangladesh should have 100 per cent owner of its own resources • Neo liberal development paradigm should be replaced by people centred development policy • IFIs disastrous policies should be rejected, to made them accoutable, and their immunity should be scrapped • Food and Energy should be the priority. No destruction of agri land and no export of energy. • No development project that destroys peoples lives, livelihoods and environment. • Peoples consent and long term sustainability must be part of development process. • People will not accept ‘projects of mass destruction’ in the name of development or FDI. • More efforts should be given to explore huge potential of renewable energy.

42. Renewable energy: future of human civilization Main features: • Supply of solar power and wind for power generation is infinite; available all over the year in Bangladesh. • Cost is still comparatively high, research and innovation will soon make it cheaper. • Possible to produce in different scales. • Possible to reach remote places. • Speculation and plunder, war and conflict, crisis and scarcity not likely from within. • Part of nature, part of Environment. • Nothing to worry about future energy security. Yet to be done: Comprehensive plan to build up own capability to escape unnecessary trap by big business and global power.

43. Recommendations • Proprietorship and authority of the people over natural resources should be strictly ensured. • Since it is limited and non-renewable; export of gas, coal and any product there from shall be prohibited by law. • Phulbari agreement (prohibit open pit mining and expulsion of Asia Energy or GCM for its crime and fraudulent activities) should be implemented to earn confidence of the people. • National coal agency should be established to utilize resources in environment friendly way. • Maritime boundary and maritime resources should be protected to ensure energy and national security. • Realization of compensation for losses in Magurchara and Tengratila and penalty for crimes and irregularities. And to use this money to build energy infrastructure. • National energy policy with a clear vision to ensure energy security with sustainable development. • National capacity building, BAPEX, Petrobangla, Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) and Bureau of mineral development (BND) shall be adequately developed. More departments at university level and also research institutes shall be established at national level to develop skilled manpower for mineral resources development and their best utilization. For this purpose, the services of expatriate Bangladeshi experts and foreign experts, if needed, shall be utilized. • Huge potential of renewable energy should be explored, national capability to be developed. Production of solar panel, wind mill, tools for biogas plant should be encouraged through different incentives.

44. Immediate steps necessary to ease gas and power crisis. • Increase production of gas from rich gas fields like Titas and Hobiganj under national agencies. • To make 12 gas points, closed for technical reasons, operational. • To ask IOCs to explore all blocks under their domain, takeover blocks which they unable to do and the expired ones. • Renovate and repair power plants including Barapukuria power plant, transmission line and gas pipe line. All these steps should cost only 9.5 billion taka but will be able to add about 1400 MW in the national grid. • Development of ‘Sunetra’ gas field with probability of 4.5 TCF should be done by BAPEX, cost: 2.79 billion taka. PSC 2011 process should be stopped. Moreover, • Installing small power plants by local entrepreneur should be encouraged. • Local entrepreneur also should be encouraged to produce solar panel and more battery. • Shopping malls and high rise apartment and office buildings should be discouraged. • Hospitals, industry, agriculture should get priority to get electricity over shopping malls and VIP residence, ad bill boards. • Use of AC should be discouraged. (one small AC consume power by which 50 HH can get one fan each).

45. Countries like Bangladesh need to change the approaches of Development to challenge ‘Resource curse’ model to ensure energy security and sustainable development. Energy sovereignty is the key to energy security and development. Thank you Photo: Taslima Akhtar