Scientific Data: an obstacle to policy?

1. Scientific Data: an obstacle to policy? Bala Sundaram

2. Role of science in policy • Increasing given the issues under consideration, climate change, stem-cell research, individualized medicine, nuclear waste etc. • Important for scientists to be involved to ensure that science is used correctly. • Vannevar Bush (1945) view: generate “..wellsprings of knowledge and understanding..” which will flow to those “.who can apply it to practical problems..” - basic versus applied distinction. Is this ‘linear’ view still valid? STV Talk

3. Aspects of science often at odds with policy needs. • Scientific data is nearly always qualified, even if it is very accurate, e.g. STP. • Tendency to speculate & explore hypothetical scenarios • Science aspects of important policy matters involve ‘complex systems’ with associated lack of determinism and systemic uncertainty. “Uncertainty is very painful. The idea that science is not going to give you certitude is very difficult for many people to accept.” (a doctor commenting on the conflicting results of breast cancer studies.) • Scientific criticism often used to discredit data. • Issue of scientific v/s decision-making uncertainties STV Talk

4. Practicing Science in the public eye Asked later what part of his job he liked the least, Dr. Chu said: “The fact that I’m constantly being told that I have to be careful what I say to the press and in public. I can’t speculate out loud anymore. Everything I say is taken with total seriousness.” --- article on Energy Secy, Dr. Steve Chu, NYTimes, 3/23/09 STV Talk

5. Role of Science in Policy - linear model • Clearly beneficial to scientists. Accountability was limited. • But changes occurred as funding was restricted. Tendency to oversell implications. E.g. (a) Superconducting super collider; (b) High-Tc superconductors. • Taking the case straight to science policy makers, rather than wait for some sort of scientific consensus. STV Talk

6. Alternative to linear model: ‘stakeholder model’ where the efficacy of science in assisting policy is assessed & rewarded. from The Honest Broker, by Roger A. Pielke, Jr. STV Talk

7. Suggested flowchart for participating scientists -- Pielke (07) STV Talk

8. The role of the scientist is not to determine which risks are worth taking, or deciding what choices we should take, but the scientist must be involved in indicating what the possible choices, constraints and possibilities are ….. The role of the scientist is not to decide between the possibilities but to determine what the possibilities are. ---- Lord Robert May, 1990 STV Talk

9. STV Talk