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Workforce & Economic Outlook

Workforce & Economic Outlook. Chief Economist. Department of Workforce Development. 4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum. January 29, 2019. Madison, WI. Dennis K. Winters. Total Non-farm Jobs. Source: LMI, OEA. Economic Outlook Employment. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA.

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Workforce & Economic Outlook

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  1. Workforce & Economic Outlook Chief Economist Department of Workforce Development 4th Annual Partner Ideas Exchange Forum January 29, 2019 Madison, WI Dennis K. Winters

  2. Total Non-farm Jobs Source: LMI, OEA

  3. Economic Outlook Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

  4. Economic Outlook Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LMI, OEA

  5. Lamenting Economic Theory “… every time the economy strengthens, ‘they want to raise [interest] rates again.’” -- The Finance 202; July 25, 2018

  6. Projected Population Change 2015 - 2035 Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab

  7. Projected Population Change2015 – 2025 People Aged 65 & Older

  8. Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth The New Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

  9. How Employment is Tracking

  10. GDP • Inflation • Interest Rates • Recession

  11. Economic Growth

  12. GDP • Slower • Less stimulus • Tax cuts run course • Trade • Consumption • Housing • Autos

  13. Mortgage Rates

  14. Inflation • Some cost push • Wages • Commodity prices • Trade • Global v. Domestic capacity • Tarriffs

  15. Inflation

  16. Interest Rates • How well managed • GDP • Inflation • Trade, currencies • Cost of capital • Non-residential investment • Housing

  17. Interest Rates Effective Federal Funds Rate Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

  18. Recession • Uncertainty • Trade/Investment • Profits/Stocks • Consumption • Self-fulfilling • Less Consumption/More Savings • Panic

  19. Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income

  20. Current expansion; July 2009 - ?; 116 months (February) Months • There have been 11 business cycles since 1945 • There have been 33 business cycles since 1854 • Average post-war recession lasted 11.1 months • Great Recession lasted 18 months • Great Depression lasted 43 months • Recession of 1873 lasted 65 months

  21. Questions? Dennis.Winters@dwd.Wisconsin.gov

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