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Cost Management Measuring, Monitoring, and Motivating Performance

Cost Management Measuring, Monitoring, and Motivating Performance. Chapter 12 Strategic Investment Decisions. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions. Learning objectives. Q1 : How are strategic investment decisions made?.

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Cost Management Measuring, Monitoring, and Motivating Performance

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  1. Cost Management Measuring, Monitoring, and Motivating Performance Chapter 12 Strategic Investment Decisions Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  2. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Learning objectives • Q1: How are strategic investment decisions made? • Q2: What cash flows are relevant for strategic investment decisions? • Q3: How is net present value (NPV) analysis performed and interpreted? • Q4: What business risks and limitations affect NPV analysis? • Q5: What alternative methods (IRR, payback, and accrual accounting rate of return) are used for long-term decision making? • Q6: What additional issues should be considered for strategic investment decisions? • Q7: How do income taxes affect strategic investment decision cash flows? • Q8: How are the real and nominal methods used to address inflation in NPV analysis (Appendix 12A) Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  3. Q1: Process for Making StrategicInvestment Decisions • The process used to compare and analyze long-term investment projects is called capital budgeting. • Strategic investment decisions typically involve a large up front investment • Time value of money must be considered since the project life is greater than 1 year • Examples of strategic investment decisions? Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  4. Q1: Process for Making StrategicInvestment Decisions Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  5. Q1: Process for Making StrategicInvestment Decisions • The capital budgeting process includes the following stages: • Identify decision alternatives. • Identify relevant cash flows. • Apply the appropriate quantitative techniques. • Perform sensitivity analysis. • Identify and analyze qualitative factors. • Consider quantitative and qualitative factors and make a decision. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  6. Q1: Capital Budgeting Quantitative Techniques • Methods that consider the time value of money: • Net present value (NPV) method • Internal rate of return (IRR) method • Methods that do not consider the time value of money: • Payback method • Accounting rate of return method Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  7. Q2: Relevant Cash Flows in Capital Budgeting • Relevant cash flows occur in the future and are different across the alternatives. • Examples of relevant cash outflows include: • Initial investment outlay • Future operating costs • Project closing and cleanup costs • Examples of relevant cash inflows include: • Future revenues • Decreased operating costs • Salvage value of assets at project’s end Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  8. Q2: Relevant Cash Flows in Capital Budgeting Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  9. , where Q3: Net Present Value (NPV) Analysis • The NPV of a project is the sum of the project’s discounted cash flows: • t = year of the project’s life in which cash • flow occurs • n = life of the project • r = discount, or hurdle rate • If a project’s NPV > 0, it is acceptable Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  10. Profitability index Present value of benefits = Present value of costs Q3: NPV Analysis and Project Ranking • NPV analysis is often used to screen projects as to whether they are acceptable. • After screening, acceptable projects may be ranked according to their profitability index. • The profitability index allows for rankings of projects of various sizes. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  11. Q3: NPV Example Joseph Leasing is considering an investment in a new apartment building. The Lindie Lane building will cost $450,000 and the net annual cash inflows are expected to be $45,000 for 7 years. At the end of the 7th year, Joseph expects to be able to sell Lindie Lane building for $400,000. Joseph demands a minimum required rate of return of 8% on all invest-ments. Assume all cash inflows occur at the end of each year. Compute the NPV of the Lindie Lane building. Is it an acceptable investment? Yes, the NPV > 0, so the investment is acceptable Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  12. Q3: NPV Example Joseph Leasing is also looking at the purchase of a lot with a double-wide trailer on it. The cost is $65,000 and the expected net cash inflows are $6,800 per year for 10 years. At the end of the 10th year, Joseph expects to be able to sell the lot and trailer for $45,000. Compute the NPV of the trailer investment. Is it an acceptable investment? Yes, the NPV > 0, so the invest-ment is acceptable Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  13. Q3: NPV Example Compare the two investments for Joseph using the profitability index, and describe to him what the index means. Which investment (or both) should he make? The Lindie Lane yields a slightly greater PV for each invested dollar than does the trailer. If Joseph has sufficient capital, he should invest in both unless he has alternatives that have even greater profitability indices. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  14. Q4: Business Risk • Almost all cash flows in strategic investment decisions have some uncertainty • Discount rates incorporate inflation, interest rates, and riskiness of the project • Risk of uncertainty in cash flows and discount rates increase: • As the project timeframe increases • When new technology, products, or markets are involved Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  15. Q4: Sensitivity Analysis & Bias • Sensitivity analysis • Helps managers identify how their NPV results would change as input variables change • Important tool for managing business risk and uncertainty • Individuals providing information about the future cash flows are likely to have a vested interest in the project’s acceptance. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  16. Initial investment PV of an annuity factor = Annual cash inflow Q5: Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Method • The IRR method computes the discount rate required to set the NPV to zero. • For projects with equal annual cash inflows where the only cash outlay is the initial investment, the IRR can be determined by computing the PV of an annuity factor and solving for the interest rate. • Then the discount rate is found by locating the column for the PV factor, given n. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  17. $100,000 = 5.650 $17,700 Q5: IRR Example Graham Enterprises is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $100,000 and the machine is expected to generate cost savings of $17,700 each year for 10 years. The machine is not expected to have any salvage value at the end of its life. Assume the cost savings are realized at the end of the year. Graham requires a 10% rate of return on all new investments. Compute the IRR for the proposed machine. Should Graham purchase the machine? Locate the 5.65 factor in the present value of an annuity table, using n = 10 years and note that it is found in the 12% column, so the IRR = 12%. Since the machine’s IRR exceeds Graham’s minimum rate of return, the machine is an acceptable investment, but of course should still be compared to other, potentially better, investments. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  18. Payback period in years = Initial investment Annual cash inflow Q5: Payback Method • The payback method computes the number of years before the initial investment is recovered. • If cash inflows are the same each year and the project has only one initial outlay, the payback period is computed as: • For projects where annual cash inflows are not equal, the payback period is computed by merely counting the years required before the initial investment is recovered. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  19. Q5: Payback Method • The payback method is widely used because of its simplicity. • However, the payback method is flawed because: • It ignores the time value of money. • It ignores cash flows that occur after the payback period. • If used at all, the payback method should be used in conjunction with the NPV or IRR methods to help assess project risk. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  20. $100,000 = 5.650 years $17,700 Q5: Payback Method Example Graham Enterprises is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $100,000 and the machine is expected to generate cost savings of $17,700 each year for 10 years. The machine is not expected to have any salvage value at the end of its life. Compute the payback period for the proposed machine. Notice that the payback period is the same as the PV factor computed in the IRR example. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  21. Q5: Payback Method Example Cophil, Inc. is considering the purchase of a new machine. There are two alternatives, and the cash flow information is given below. Compute the payback period for each and comment on your findings. The payback period for Machine B is 2 years. The payback period for Machine A is 3.5 years ($60,000 covered after 3 years, and $40,000 is ½ of year 4’s cash inflow). The payback method shows Machine B to be preferable to Machine A, but ignores the large cash inflows of Machine A that occur after the payback period. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  22. Accrual accounting rate of return = Operating income Initial Investment Q5: Accrual Accounting Rate of Return Method • The accrual accounting rate of return computes the project’s rate of return using operating income in place of cash flows. • This method is widely used because the financial accounting information is readily available, but is is flawed because it ignores the time value of money. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  23. Annual cost savings $32,000 Annual depreciation expense ($100,000/5 years) 20,000 Effect on annual operating income $12,000 Accrual accounting rate of return $12,000 = = 12% $100,000 Q5: Accrual Accounting Rate of ReturnMethod Example Blanche Manufacturing is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $100,000 and it is expected to last 5 years and have no salvage value. The machine is expected to generate cost savings of $32,000 per year. Ignoring income tax effects, compute the accrual accounting rate of return for this investment. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  24. Q6: Additional Considerations in Strategic Investment Decisions • Qualitative issues that may arise in capital budgeting include: • the effects of the decision on the company’s reputation, • the effects on the quality of the company’s products and services, • the effects on the company’s community, and • the effects on employees. • After a capital budgeting decision is made, a post-investment audit should be performed to assess the decision process. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  25. Q7: Income Tax Considerations • All cash flows should first be converted to an after-tax amount. • The tax savings that result from the depreciation deduction is called the depreciation tax shield. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  26. Cash inflows after taxes [$50,000 x (1 – 30%)] $35,000 Tax savings from depreciation [$30,000 x 30%] 9,000 Net after-tax annual cash inflows $44,000 NPV = $44,000 x PV factor of an annuity - $180,000 = $44,000 x 4.355 - $180,000 = $11,620 Q7: Capital Budgeting and IncomeTax Considerations (NPV) Example Colby Products is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $180,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have no salvage value. The machine is expected to generate cost savings of $50,000 per year. Colby’s tax rate is 30% and its discount rate is 10%. For simplification, suppose that Colby uses straight-line depreciation for both books and taxes. Compute the IRR of this machine. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  27. Cash inflows after taxes [$50,000 x (1 – 30%)] $35,000 Tax savings from depreciation [$30,000 x 30%] 9,000 Net after-tax annual cash inflows $44,000 $180,000 PV of an annuity factor = 4.091 = $44,000 Q7: Capital Budgeting and IncomeTax Considerations (IRR) Example Colby Products is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $180,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have no salvage value. The machine is expected to generate cost savings of $50,000 per year. Colby’s tax rate is 30% and its discount rate is 10%. For simplification, suppose that Colby uses straight-line depreciation for both books and taxes. Compute the IRR of this machine. Locate the 4.091 factor in the present value of an annuity table, using n = 6 years and note that it is found between the 12% & 13% columns, so the IRR is just over 12%. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  28. Cash inflows after taxes [$50,000 x (1 – 30%)] $35,000 Tax savings from depreciation [$30,000 x 30%] 9,000 Net after-tax annual cash inflows $44,000 $180,000 Payback period = 4.91 years. = $44,000 Q7: Capital Budgeting and IncomeTax Considerations (Payback) Example Colby Products is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $180,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have no salvage value. The machine is expected to generate cost savings of $50,000 per year. Colby’s tax rate is 30% and its discount rate is 10%. For simplification, suppose that Colby uses straight-line depreciation for both books and taxes. Compute the payback period of this machine. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  29. Cash inflows after taxes [$50,000 x (1 – 30%)] $35,000 Tax savings from depreciation [$30,000 x 30%] 9,000 Net after-tax annual increase in operating income $44,000 $44,000 24.44% accrual accounting ROR = $180,000 Q7: Capital Budgeting and Income Tax Considerations (Accrual Accounting ROR) Example Colby Products is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $180,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have no salvage value. The machine is expected to generate cost savings of $50,000 per year. Colby’s tax rate is 30% and its discount rate is 10%. For simplification, suppose that Colby uses straight-line depreciation for both books and taxes. Compute the accrual accounting rate of return of this machine. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  30. Q8: Inflation and NPV Analysis • When the purchasing power of the dollar declines over time, it is known as inflation. • The real rate of interest does not consider changes in the purchasing power of a dollar. • The nominal rate of interest is the rate that investors demand when inflation is taken into consideration in their decisions. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  31. Q8: Inflation and NPV Analysis • The risk-free rate is the rate of interest that is paid on long-term government bonds. • The risk premium is the additional rate of return investors demand to compensate them for taking risk. • The risk premium increases for riskier investments. • The real rate of interest is the nominal rate plus the risk premium demanded for that investment. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  32. Nominal rate of interest = (1 + real rate) x (1 + inflation rate) - 1 Nominal cash flow = Real cash flow x (1 + i)t, where Q8: Nominal and Real Methods of NPV Analysis • The real and nominal rates of interest are related as follows: • Nominal future cash flows are real cash flows inflated to future dollars: i = rate of inflation, and t = the number of time periods in the future the cash flow occurs Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  33. Q8: Nominal and Real Methods of NPV Analysis • In the real method of NPV analysis, future cash flows are state in real dollars (without considering changes in the purchasing power of the dollar) and a real rate of interest is used as the discount rate. • In the nominal method of NPV analysis, future cash flows and the terminal project value must be inflated to future dollars and a nominal rate of interest is used as the discount rate. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  34. Q8: Real Method of NPV Analysis • The depreciation tax shield is calculated in 3 steps: • Calculate the annual depreciation deduction for tax purposes, • Convert each year’s depreciation deduction from year zero dollars to real dollars by dividing by (1 + inflation rate)t, • Multiply the real value of the depreciation deduction times the tax rate. • Calculate the NPV for the incremental cash flows, including the tax savings from depreciation, using the real rate of interest. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  35. *this is the nominal depreciation over (1.02)t Q8: Real Method of NPV Analysis Example Stiles, Inc. is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $400,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have a salvage value of $80,000. Stiles’ tax rate is 30%, the risk-free rate is 3%, the expected inflation rate is 2%, and Stiles believes that a risk premium of 5% for this machine is appropriate. The machine qualifies as 5-year MACRS property for tax purposes, which means that the depreciation deduction is taken over 6 years at 20%, 32%, 19.2%, 11.52%, 11.52%, and 5.76% of asset cost, respectively. Compute the depreciation tax shield in real dollars for this machine. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  36. Q8: Real Method of NPV Analysis Example Compute the tax on the gain on the sale of the machine, in real dollars. Note that the tax will be paid in the same year as the disposal, so the $24,000 is already in real dollars. On the prior slide, depreciation deductions taken in years 2 – 6 are based on an investment stated in year 1 dollars, so they were not in real dollars and needed to be deflated. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  37. Q8: Nominal Method of NPV Analysis • Incremental cash inflows and the terminal cash flow must be adjusted (inflated) for inflation. • Calculate the gain on asset disposal as the historical cost compared to the nominal depreciation deduction. • The nominal and real methods yield the same NPV when the inflation rate is constant over the investment’s life. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  38. Q8: Nominal Method of NPV Analysis Example Stiles, Inc. is considering the purchase of a new machine. The cost is $400,000 and it is expected to last 6 years and have a salvage value of $80,000. Stiles’ tax rate is 30%, the risk-free rate is 3%, the expected inflation rate is 2%, and Stiles believes that a risk premium of 5% for this machine is appropriate. The machine qualifies as 5-year MACRS property for tax purposes, which means that the depreciation deduction is taken over 6 years at 20%, 32%, 19.2%, 11.52%, 11.52%, and 5.76% of asset cost, respectively. Compute the depreciation tax shield in nominal dollars for this machine. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  39. = (1.02)6 $400,000 cost less depreciation taken of $400,000 Q8: Nominal Method of NPV Analysis Example Compute the tax on the gain on the sale of the machine, in nominal dollars. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

  40. Q8: Nominal Method of NPV Analysis Example Suppose the machine generates cost savings of $60,000 per year for 6 years. Compute the NPV of the machine using the nominal method. Chapter 12: Strategic Investment Decisions Eldenburg & Wolcott’s Cost Management, 2e

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