School of Oriental & African Studies

1. School of Oriental & African Studies MDG1 & food security: critical challenges Andrew Dorward School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture & Health Andrew.Dorward@soas.ac.uk International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 30thNovember 2011

2. Outline • MDG1 elements & progress • Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth • Current challenges • Action International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 2

3. The MDG1 targets TARGET 1.A Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day TARGET 1.B Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people TARGET 1.C Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 3

4. % People living on less than $1.25: 1990, 2005

5. % Under-5 children underweight : 1990, 2009

6. Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth:context • Stages of development & growth: • Importance of food in expenditure (& earnings) of poor countries & poor people • Importance of land, labour & capital in poor countries’ & poor people’ economies • Importance of food production in using land & labour • Importance of food deficit farmers? • Nature of growth • land productivity & labour demand, in tradables & staples • Cross sectoral linkages • Agricultural potential • Other opportunities: minerals & trade (coastal countries) International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 6

7. Agriculture, food security & inclusive growth:processes & special contributions • Increased productivity of national & poor people’s labour • Increased productivity of national & poor people’s land • Higher incomes: farmers & farm labourers • Cheaper food for the urban & rural poor raises their real incomes • Stimulus for demand for local goods & services • Surplus capital & labour for other sectors • Exports & import substitution • Livestock & horticulture – supply & demand growth • Nutrition & health benefits Drivers Supporters International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

8. International grain price indices, 2005-2011 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 8

9. A system tightened too far?Steve Wiggins (2009) Peakkg/cap

10. International commodity price indices, 2005-2011 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 10

11. Price effects: undernourishment Asia Africa International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs

12. Country resiliences to rising food prices National / household food sellers and/or rising non-food incomes National / household food buyers

13. Causes of the current spikes Policy changes Environmental changes Stagnant productivity Reduced R&D Climate change Weather shocks Reduced subsidies Production lags Financial speculation Falling supply Water scarcity Oil prices Oil prices Waste etc. Volatility: price spikes Higher prices Low stocks Biofuels Biofuels Loss of land Stakeholder stocking Population growth Economic growth Rising demand 13

14. Actions • Address global constraints on food production • investment in research, improved efficiency, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, integrated soil fertility management, water management, climate change mitigation & adaptation, biofuels policies, speculation? • Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve food productivity • research, roads, extension, input & output markets, ?input subsidies (be careful!), cross sectoral links, land policies, integrated soil fertility management, water • hungry gap measures • Specific country & vulnerable group measures to improve affordable food access • Transparent & predictable trade policies; safety nets; insurance?, market & early warning information • Monitor real incomes for vulnerable groups: seasonal wage to food price ratio International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 14

15. Questions? • Examples of problems? • Examples of successful & unsuccessful responses? • Lessons? International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 15

16. Sources • UN (2011) The Millennium Development Goals Report & Statistical Annex. • IFPRI, Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe. 2011 Global Hunger Index - The Challenge of Hunger: Taming Price Spikes and Excessive Food Price Volatility • FAO (2011) The State of Food Insecurity in the World, 2011. How does international price volatility affect domestic economies and food security? • World Bank Prospects Commodity Markets http://go.worldbank.org/4ROCCIEQ50 International Parliamentary Conference on the MDGs 16

17. Energy, materials, capital, technology, knowledge, institutions Coordination processes, scale, locations, populations, timing Hunger Food deficit farmers Land increased / constant per capita food availability Earlier(?) Positive feedbacks Capital, Technology, Knowledge, Health? Poverty reduction, Globalisation? higher labour productivity in food production increased income available for purchase of non food goods & services falling food prices relative to wages/income, AGRI-CULTURAL REVOLUT-IONS INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, KNOWLEDGE REVOLUT-IONS releasing labour for production of other goods and services releasing labour for production of other goods & services Increased demand for & supply of non-food goods & services Later (?) Negative feedbacks Natural resource use, Waste, Environmental degradation, Biodiversity loss, Health? Inequity? ? Globalisation? increased income available for purchase of goods & services falling ‘other’ prices relative to wages/income, higher labour productivity, other goods & services increased / constant per capita ‘other’ availability Energy, materials, capital, technology, knowledge, institutions Coordination processes, scale, locations, populations, timing