Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Design Study

1. Integrated System Health Management(ISHM)Design Study Jim MacConnell Consensus Technology, LLC 2200 N. 77th St. Seattle, WA 98104-4928 Tel: 206.524.8555 Fax: 206.524.3034 jmac@consensustech.com The Potential of Designing for/with ISHM

2. Agenda • Welcome & Introductions9:00Barthelemy • AFRL Overview9:10Cruse • ISHM IPT Perspectives 10:00NavarraDerissoBeachkofski • Study Overview10:30MacConnell • ISHM Perspectives11:00Participants Lunch 12:00 • ISHM Perspectives (Cont.) 12:30 Participants • Study Discussion 3:00MacConnell All • Wrap Up & Adjourn 4:00Barthelemy

3. Agenda • Welcome & Introductions9:00 Barthelemy • AFRL Overview9:10 Cruse • ISHM IPT Perspective10:00 Navarra Derisso Beachkofski • Study Overview10:30 MacConnell • ISHM Perspectives11:00 Participants Lunch 12:00 • ISHM Perspectives (Cont.) 12:30 • Study Discussion 3:00 MacConnell All • Wrap Up & Adjourn 4:00

4. Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Design Study Study Overview Jim MacConnell Consensus Technology, LLC 2200 N. 77th St. Seattle, WA 98104-4928 Tel: 206.524.8555 Fax: 206.524.3034 jmac@consensustech.com

5. Study Overview • Define and document • The potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on • Design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) • Design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs) • The technology issues and shortfalls that would need to be addressed to achieve that impact • Critical technologies that have the potential to address those shortfalls • A business case analysis that provides rationale for: • Designing for/with ISHM • Prioritization of technical shortfalls • Pursuing specific critical technologies • The preferred programmatic approach to pursuing those technologies • Collaborative Approaches (Consortia, Collaborative Programs) • Suite of Conventional CRAD Programs • Challenge is Balance between Program/Initiative building and Technical/Business Assessment

6. Study Schedule Initial Industry Meeting Initial Study Results (Technology) Final Study Results (Programmatic)

7. WBI SOW

8. Study Tasking Task 1: • Study Development • define the specifics of the study with the government ISHM IPT, • assemble the collaborative ISHM team that will execute the study under the leadership of the Wright Brothers Institute, • define the needed effort for Tasks 2 and 3, and • identify the government and industry resources required to execute the study. Task 2: • Define the potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on the design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs). • Assuming an ideal health management capability, • which would include available sensors with required performance, durability and reliability, the Wright Brothers Institute and the collaborative ISHM team shall: • perform a business case analysis to examine • the monetary trades, system performance, mission availability, and procurement size impact for a new acquisition • if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management.

9. Study Tasking Task 3: • Define the potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on the design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs). • Assuming an ideal health management capability, • which would include available sensors with required performance, durability and reliability, • perform a business case analysis to examine • the monetary trades, system performance, mission availability, and procurement size impact for a new acquisition • if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management. Task 4: • Compile and develop a final report that will include • the findings of the study as well as the required R&D to achieve an optimized ISHM. • A summary of the findings quantifying the benefits of the proposed ISHM system and documentation of the business decisions made in selecting the attributes of the ISHM system will be included. • a list of the technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed or desired. • Identification of the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. • Definition of any shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system

10. Overall Objectives • To define the overall scope and key research areas of a cross technical directorate effort in ISHM • To define and assess cost, performance, and other benefits that may be achieved by including ISHM capabilities in the conceptual design of aerospace vehicles. • study how ISHM might influence the design of the vehicles and the system as a whole. • quantify the benefits of the “proposed” ISHM system • document the business decisions made in selecting the attributes of the ISHM system • To identify the critical technology elements required to realize those benefits • Define technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed. • Identify the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. • Define shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system will be defined • To establish a roadmap for pursuing those technologies.

11. Overall Objective • To define the overall scope and key research areas of a cross technical directorate effort in ISHM • Focus on collaborative development of: • Technical focus areas • Benefits definition and analysis • True INTEGRATION vs. Cross-Functional Development

12. Define Benefits • To define and assess cost, performance, and other benefits that may be achieved by including ISHM capabilities in the conceptual design of the vehicles. • Not just “What are the benefits if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management.” • Rather “Would we design differently if the ideal ISHM system existed and what would be the benefits of THAT design/system” Opens up the discussion but presents real challenges

13. ? Real Time Decision Making System Analysis Sensors Diagnostics Pattern Recognition Computational Power Impedance Methods Prognostics Physics Based Approaches Bandwidth System Certification Data Storage Identify Critical Elements • To identify the critical technology elements required to realize those benefits • Define technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed. • Identify the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. • Define shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system will be defined SOA Vision

14. Prognostics System Analysis Pattern Recognition Real Time Decision Making Real Time Decision Making ? System Analysis Sensors Sensors Diagnostics Bandwidth Pattern Recognition Data Storage Computational Power Sensors Impedance Methods Bandwidth Diagnostics Prognostics Data Storage Impedance Methods Physics Based Approach Physics Based Approaches Bandwidth System Certification Diagnostics Computational Power Impedance Methods System Certification Data Storage Physics Based Approaches Computational Power System Certification Prognostics System Analysis Pattern Recognition Real Time Decision Making Establish development plan • To establish a roadmap for pursuing those technologies. • Transform the set of technology needs into a prioritized and structured technology development thrusts • Integrate the technology thrusts into a set of discreet, manageable but inter-dependent efforts • Define the resources needed for those efforts and the appropriate “team” construct to conduct those efforts successfully

15. Study Overview • Define and document • The potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on • Design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) • Design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs) • The technology issues and shortfalls that would need to be addressed to achieve that impact • Critical technologies that have the potential to address those shortfalls • A business case analysis that provides rationale for: • Designing for/with ISHM • Prioritization of technical shortfalls • Pursuing specific critical technologies • The preferred programmatic approach to pursuing those technologies • Collaborative Approaches (Consortia, Collaborative Programs) • Suite of Conventional CRAD Programs • Challenge is Balance between Program/Initiative building and Technical/Business Assessment

16. Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) NEW design philosophy!! C3 Systems Health ManagementUltimate Goal Usage Data/Learning Algorithms/Neural Nets Vehicle CAPABILITY: Material Prognosis (A1) Autonomic Maintenance & Logistics Component Prognosis (A2) • Determine Remaining Useful Life • State awareness • Fault anal. • Life prediction Subsystem Prognosis (A3) C1 • Determine Remaining Useful Life • State awareness • Fault anal. • Life prediction System Prognosis (A4) • Determine Remaining Useful Life • State awareness • Fault anal. • Life prediction • Payoff: • Reduced O&S Costs • Less Inspection Time • Less Maintenance Time • Faster Turn Around • Determine Remaining Useful Life • State awareness • Fault anal. • Life prediction A A • Perform Mission • In situ mission modification • Life extending controls, etc. A An C2 Capability Ultimately Limited by Existing Design Methodology Payoff: Improved Readiness/ Mission Capability Improved Safety Dn

17. Questions to be answered • What are the key features of the ideal ISHM capability? • Know everything about everything? • Discrete versus continuum sensing • What it means versus what it is • Know it now not after • Know what to do about it? • Intelligent decision making • Learning systems • What technologies are required to achieve the ideal ISHM capability? • Bandwidth • Processing power • Sensors • Integrated • Where do we start if our goal is the ideal system? • Building block approach?

18. Would ISHM Impact the Following? Structural Design • Current Structural Design Philosophy • Reduce FOS? • Lighter Design? • New Structural Design Philosophy • Enable Reliability-based (Probabilistic) Design Approach? • Reduce reliance on structural redundancy for fail-safety, reduces weight and cost? • Structural/Materials Certification Process • Reduce Certification Time? • New Structural Maintenance Procedure • Enable Condition-Based Maintenance? Full-Scale Structural Fatigue Test Structural Inspection

19. ISHM IPT Roles and ResponsibilityAction Teams and Team Leads Propulsion B. Beachkofski PR, ML Structures M. Derriso VA, VS, ML Avionics M. Wicks SN, ML Weapons MN, DE, ML Sub-Systems K. Navarra ML, SN, PR, VA System Health M. Derriso VA, VS, IF Net Centric Operations and Logistics C. Curtis IF, HE Controls J.B. Schroeder VA, VS, PR External Database