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A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities

A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities. 12 th TRB Planning Application Conference May 20, 2009 Fred Ducca & Supin Yoder, FHWA David Kurth, Cambridge Systematics. Presentation Outline. Impetus of the Snapshot Project NAS Report 288 Summaries of MPOs with good practice.

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A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities

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  1. A Snapshot of Travel Modeling Activities 12th TRB Planning Application Conference May 20, 2009 Fred Ducca & Supin Yoder, FHWA David Kurth, Cambridge Systematics

  2. Presentation Outline • Impetus of the Snapshot Project • NAS Report 288 • Summaries of MPOs with good practice

  3. TRB Special Report 288:Metropolitan Travel Forecasting • Determine state of practice in metropolitan travel forecasting • Determine capability of models to address current issues • Recommend actions needed to ensure models can address current issues

  4. Snapshot of Good Modeling Practice • In-depth understanding of MPOs with good modeling practice • Interviewed five MPOs • Atlanta, Columbus, Dallas-Fort Worth, Sacramento and Seattle, • Project Report: A Snapshot of Travel modeling Activities • Detailed technical reviews of Activity Based Models • Columbus & Sacramento • Project Report: Activity Based Travel Demand Forecasting, Reviews of MORPC and SACOG Modeling Practices

  5. Snapshot – MPO Models

  6. Snapshot – MPO Model Components

  7. Snapshot – MPO Model Components

  8. Snapshot – MPO Model Components

  9. Snapshot – MPO Typical Applications

  10. MPO Interview Topic Areas • Role of the travel model in the transportation planning process; • Primary challenges and emerging issues regarding use of travel models/forecasts; • Support for the travel modeling process; • Future plans for travel model updates.

  11. MPO Interview Topic Areas • Role of the travel model in the transportation planning process; • Models play a central role • More pronounced as funding lags needs

  12. MPO Interview Topic Areas • Primary challenges and emerging issues regarding use of travel models/forecasts; • 2 broad groups of challenges • Those addressed with existing models, ad hoc analysis, major assumptions, or less detail than desired. • Those that cannot be credibly addressed with current models.

  13. MPO Interview Topic Areas • Support for the travel modeling process; • Strong in each of the areas • Financial support provides evidence • Annual budgets for modeling, planning, data collection, land use, consultants & misc. ranged from $1.85 M – $5.6 M

  14. MPO Interview Topic Areas • Future plans for travel model updates • 2 MPOs have ABMs • 3 MPOs developing ABMs

  15. Snapshot – Findings • Fiscal constraint puts more focus on evaluation • Need to establish model credibility with MPO Board • Current models’ limited ability to address emerging issues • Short term solutions developed

  16. Snapshot - Findings • Motivation for activity models • Activity based models promising • Address more complex issues • Parallel Approach to Model Improvements • Continuous improvement to existing four step model • Incremental move to advanced model • Need for time dependent network models • SHRP C-10

  17. Snapshot - Findings • Need for freight models • Challenges • Develop and maintain quality data • Limited resources for advanced model • Training • Computer resources • Budgetary • Staffing for modeling / training

  18. Snapshot - Conclusions • Four step remains basic approach • Inherent shortcomings • Need for quality data • Context specific applications • Obstacle to improvement • Limited resources • Findings support TRB SR 288

  19. Links • TRB SR 288 • http://www.trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=7821 • Snapshot of Good Modeling Practice • http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/resources/clearinghouse/browse/list/6/1276 • TMIP • http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/

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