The Environment and Supply Chains Monster Conference Synthesis

1. The Environment and Supply ChainsMonster Conference Synthesis Ross Glenn Hall Mount Royal College Thomas Homer-Dixon Trudeau Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies University of Toronto June 10 2008

2. SUPPLY CHAINS • are about • MOVING STUFF • Open human heart • Aboriginal song lines • Trade routes

3. “The march towards a seamless global economy is not going that smoothly.” Just in time  Just in case Roger Gibbins

4. “9 out of 10 suppliers source from China” Jonathan Gatrell We need to challenge the assumption that material stuff will continue to move long distances

5. “The price of oil will approach $250 a barrel in the foreseeable future.” Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller, June 10

6. In a world of increasing frequency and severity of system crisis and shock . . . the balance of economic and social investment should perhaps shift away from efficiency towards resilience.

7. THE AGE OF NATURE The economic challenges of the 21st century will be powerfully driven by material forces – demographic change, resource scarcities, environmental stress, and technological shifts

8. OVERLOAD Stress _________ Coping capacity

9. CONVERGENCE Stresses Societal overload

10. CLIMATE

13. More rapid warming at poles One reason: Ice-albedo feedback Atmospheric warming radiative positive feedback, fast Increased ocean absorption of sun’s energy Melting of ice Lower reflectivity of ocean surface

21. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Frequency of event Severity of Event

22. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Frequency of event Y1 X Severity of Event

23. Rising Frequency of Extreme Events Y2 Frequency of event Y1 X Severity of Event

24. ENERGY

26. Energy should be seen as the Master resource

27. Two views of energy: 1. Fuel 2. Enabler of complexity

28. Producing energy costs energy This principle is best understood through the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

32. Producing energy costs energy This principle is best understood through the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI)

34. 2006 2005 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 2000-2006 3.3% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

35. “ [We show] that to hold climate constant at a given global temperature requires near zero future carbon emissions. . . . As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on centennial timescales.” Matthews, H. D., and K. Caldeira (2008), “Stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions,” Geophys. Res. Lett.

36. Plan Zs: Ramp-down rates Motivation: perception of manageable risk; Response: Conventional institutions and technologies; democratic governance Motivation: perception of catastrophic risk; Response: radical institutions and technologies; authoritarian governance? Carbon emissions Time

37. realized impact Impact, Mitigation, and Adaptation mitigation Potential Impact adaptation 2000 2050 2100 Chris Milly (USGS/NOAA-GFDL, 2007)

38. COMPLEXITY Complexity has risen because of advances in information technology and because of performance improvements at the level of system units (i.e., organizations, technologies and people)

39. These changes produce more • complex networks with: • More nodes • A greater density of connections • among nodes • Faster movement of material, • energy, and information along • these connections

40. COMPLEXITY Rapid rise in complexity, because of environmental regulations, rebates, competitive demands, increasing consumer power, and rapidly changing tastes “Doing more things with more people across more tiers of interaction” Jonathan Gatrell

41. RESILIENT people, institutions and societies . . . have the capability to withstand shock without catastrophic failure

42. Ways to increase system resilience Loosen coupling Increase buffering Increase redundancy

43. CONNECTIVITY Material stresses are converging at the same time the world has become vastly more connected with far faster movement of material, energy, and information along these connections

44. CONNECTIVITY “In our competitive environment, more connectivity is better, just need to manage risk” Jonathan Gatrell

45. Greater Vulnerability As a result of tight coupling of nodes

47. Connectivity and Resilience Resilience Connectivity

48. Greater Vulnerability As a result of power-law distribution of nodes

49. Greater Vulnerability As a result of power-law distribution of nodes

50. Two Types of Network Random Scale-free