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The Political Economy of Infrastructure Planning in Sweden

The Political Economy of Infrastructure Planning in Sweden. Johanna Jussila Hammes VTI, TEK-Stockholm. Background. An explorative study Analyse data from two Swedish National Transport Infrastructure Plans, for 2004-2015 and for 2010-2021.

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The Political Economy of Infrastructure Planning in Sweden

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  1. The PoliticalEconomyofInfrastructure Planning in Sweden Johanna Jussila Hammes VTI, TEK-Stockholm

  2. Background • An explorative study • Analyse data from two Swedish National Transport Infrastructure Plans, for 2004-2015 and for 2010-2021. • Whatfactorsexplainwhichprojects get included in a Plan? Examinepoliticaleconomyexplanations.

  3. Hypotheses • There is a geographic-political aspect to the choice of infrastructure projects. • The preferred transport mode varies depending on government colour. • There is a rural-urban split in project choice depending on the colour of the government. • Lobbying affects the choice of which projects are included in a National Transport Infrastructure Plan.

  4. Data

  5. t-tests

  6. Regression results: basic regression

  7. Regression results: bigcities

  8. Regression results: lobbying

  9. Conclusions • The politicalvariables get positive and statisticallysignificantcoefficients in the regression analysis. • t-tests show no difference in the meansof the variablesbetween the two Plans.  Weconsider the regression analysistoprovide at least partial support for the firsthypothesis. • Railinvestments get a positive and significantcoefficient in the regression analysis. • The meanvalue for ’Rail’ is greater for the 2004-15 Plan than for the 2010-21 Plan.  Bothgovernmentsfavourrailinvestments over road but the left-winggovernmentfavoursrailmore.

  10. Conclusions • The regression coefficientsfor the bigcitiesareinsignificant. • The meanvalue for Stockholm County is lower for the 2004-15 Plan than for the 2010-21 Plan. • The left-winggovernmentseemstohavediscriminatedagainst the Stockholm County. • The regression coefficients for ’Co-financing/IC’ are positive and significant. The coefficients for ’NPV Freight/IC’ are borderline significant and positive. •  Lobbying matters, especially lobbying by the municipalitiesthrough co-financing.

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