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Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss. Pat Getz September 24, 2009 APDU Conference. Industry Employment Statistics Series. Current Employment Statistics (CES) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Business Employment Dynamics (BED)

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Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss

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  1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Data on Job Creation and Job Loss Pat Getz September 24, 2009 APDU Conference

  2. Industry Employment Statistics Series • Current Employment Statistics (CES) • Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) • Business Employment Dynamics (BED) • Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS)

  3. CES Program • CES, also known as the payroll survey, is the earliest data available; one month lag from reference month • Provides estimates of net employment change, average hours, and nominal and real earnings, by industry • National, States, and Metropolitan areas • Top line series date back to 1939

  4. CES Derivation and Use • Based on a monthly nationwide sample of about 380,000 business establishments • Benchmarked annually to administrative records from the UI tax system through the BLS QCEW program • Major analytical use: timely measure of net employment change

  5. QCEW Program • Quarterly release of monthly employment series, and quarterly wage totals • Published 7 months after the end of the quarter (March data released in October) • National, State, counties by detailed industry • Data more extensive than CES, but released 6 months later

  6. QCEW Derivation and Use • Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records • Universe count, not a sample, allowing for publication of extensive industry and geographic detail • Cells with small number of establishments are suppressed for confidentiality reasons • Major analytical use – trends at detailed industry/geographic levels

  7. BED Series Quarterly series on gross job gains and gross job losses, derived from the QCEW Gross job gains are composed of: • Expansions and Openings Gross job losses are composed of: • Contractions and Closings

  8. BED Series Recent enhancements now allow further breakouts: • Openings divides into business births and seasonal re-openings • Closings divides into business deaths and seasonal closings

  9. BED Series • National series by industry, size class • States series for Total Private (no industry or size breakouts) • Quarterly series with an 8-month lag (Q1/March data published in November) • Series begin in 1992

  10. BED Analytical Uses • Disaggregation of net employment changes into component pieces at the business establishment level • Analysis of trends from each component

  11. JOLTS • Job Openings, Hires, Total Separations • Separations divided into Quits, Layoffs, and Other separations • National and Regional data • Published with a 2-month lag from the reference period (e.g. July data published 2nd week in September) • Series begin in 2000

  12. JOLTS Derivation • Based on a monthly sample of about 10,000 business establishments • Benchmarked monthly to CES employment

  13. JOLTS analytical uses • Disaggregation of net employment change into hires and separations • Job openings series complements unemployment rate (labor demand vs labor supply) • Quits series measure workers willingness and ability to change jobs

  14. JOLTS Quits and Layoffs & Discharges Levels, Total Nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 23

  15. JOLTS Hires and Total Separations and CES Employment, Total Nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 24

  16. The Unemployment Rate and the Job Openings Rate, Total Nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 25

  17. For Further Information • BLS published series and technical information is online at: bls.gov • My contact information: getz.pat@bls.gov

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