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Understanding Development in the 21 st Century

Understanding Development in the 21 st Century. IARD 402 September 2, 2005 Robert W. Herdt. Understanding Development in the 21 st Century. Global change Population growth Famine/Hunger Development and agriculture Development assistance? Agricultural technology? Foundations.

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Understanding Development in the 21 st Century

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  1. Understanding Developmentin the 21st Century IARD 402 September 2, 2005 Robert W. Herdt

  2. Understanding Development in the 21st Century • Global change • Population growth • Famine/Hunger • Development and agriculture • Development assistance? • Agricultural technology? • Foundations Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  3. Profound recent global change • Political/Economic • Global climate change • Infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS • Population growth • Information technology • Intellectual property environment • Biotechnology Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  4. Global political/economic changes • Failure of planned economies, end of cold war, “Washington consensus” • Globalization - trade • Asian growth defies the Washington consensus • Market economies meet demand, but entail transactions costs, don’t address inequity, externalities Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  5. Global climate change • Greenhouse gases rising • Global temperature rising • Increasing weather fluctuations? • US farming reflects resilience to observed range of changes Averaging across geography? Cost of acquired resilience? “Clean energy” ? • Grim prospects for tropics -- dryer, hotter Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  6. HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases • “Discovered” 1981; Treatment 1987; No vaccine • 39 million infected with HIV/AIDS • 25 million in sub-Sahara Africa • 8% of adults in SS Africa vs 0.6% in US orphans; health care; labor force • In hardest-hit countries: reduced life expectancy, but small impact on population growth • HIV/AIDS ignored in India, all treated in Brazil • TB, malaria, new infectious diseases Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005 http://www.who.int/hiv/en/

  7. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  8. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  9. Information Technology • Cell ‘phones • Internet • Personal computers • Digital divide Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  10. Internet – about a decade old Number of internet hosts (million) 1990 Internet went commercial 1992: www invented Internet Systems Consortium, Inc. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  11. Cell ‘phone technology– about a decade old Global users Internet Systems Consortium, Inc. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  12. Population Growth 1775–2000 Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005 Source: UN Population Reference Bureau

  13. Long term world population (UN median estimate) Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005 http://www.prb.org/template.cfm?Section=Educators

  14. Future global population scenarios Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005 http://www.prb.org/template.cfm?Section=Educators

  15. Famine • What is Famine? • “It is possible to identify measures that can bring about the elimination of famines and a radical reduction of chronic undernourishment.” A.K. Sen. • OK, But How? • Lack of food entitlement, NOT lack of food leads to famine and chronic undernourishment (hunger) Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  16. Food entitlements • “Ability by individuals to establish ownership and control over food” What determines/affects entitlement? How? • Production • Technology • Resources • Income • Prices • Markets • Policy • Combined effects => entitlement Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  17. World food crisis? • Global food-population race • Developing countries food-population race • Global food prices Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  18. Food production growth and availability food population food increase growth available 1980-95 rate calories ’95 • World wide 11% 1.3% 2800 • Asia 44% 1.4% 2600 • South America 17% 1.6% 2800 • Europe 5% 0% 3200 • N. America 4% 0.5% 3300 • Africa - 4% 2.4% 2400 Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  19. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  20. World food pricesFood prices, US$ (constant) per MT 1950-52 1995-97 • Wheat 427 159 • Rice 789 282 • Sorghum 328 111 • Maize 372 119 Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  21. Hunger: Chronic Undernourishment • Trends? • Prevalence? • Location? • How to reverse? Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  22. Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  23. Projected numbers of malnourished children in sub-Sahara Africa through 2050 under alternative future food policies Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  24. Percent of population hungry Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005 Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity in the World 1999

  25. 1997 & 2020 IFPRI Projections Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  26. World food crisis? • Global food-population race • Developing countries food-population race • Global food prices • Africa: low and falling per-capita food. Why? General economic crisis With strong social and political elements Must be addressed in broader terms Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  27. Key agricultural indicators, 2004 Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  28. Underlying-determinants of child malnutrition in the developing world Based on data for 63 countries, 1970-1996, child malnutrition was reduced through: • National income growth reflected in: • National food availability: 26% • Women’s education and status: 43% • Improvements in health (safe water): 19% • Favorable political context, reflected in democracy Source: Smith and Haddad, IFPRI Overcoming Child Malnutrition in Developing Countries: Past Achievements and Future Choices Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  29. Requirements for food security and higher national income in Africa • Peace, AIDS control, Democracy, Education • Higher rural incomes • Well-adapted, improved farm technology • Well-functioning farm markets • Non-discriminating agricultural policies • Higher rural incomes – agricultural growth --will reduce hunger Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  30. Higher rural incomes requires increased ag productivity • Rural people comprise 70-90% • Their assets are primarily labor and land • The inputs for crop production • Non-farm enterprises requires capital • Income is from a mix of sources, but farming predominates • Non-ag enterprises require capital • Historically small-scale farming led; large-scale farming resulted Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  31. Higher agricultural productivity requires well-functioning markets • Reliable information: prices by quality (grades and standards) • Widely disseminated information • Enforceable contracts • Roads: local, regional, to ports • Government: facilitate information, offset market failures • Fertilizer quality, seed testing, contracts, roads • NOT seeds, fertilizers, credit Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  32. Higher agricultural productivity requires better farm technology • Income low because yields are low (0.5 vs 2) • output per hectare is low, crop land per person is low => income is low • Higher yields repeatedly demonstrated • on experiment stations (5t/ha), on farms (2t/ha) • not consistent; need tailoring • economically optimal levels not clear • Monocrops, low fertilizer, poor varieties • Limited use of improved technology Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  33. Better farm technology requires • Broader use of currently available, appropriate technology: • Seeds/varieties, cropping systems, compost, fertilizer, pest management • Importation of well-adapted technology • from similar biological, social, economic environments: limited • Invention of better technology through effective local research Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  34. Agricultural research • Raise productivity: value of output/value of inputs • Inputs = seeds, plant nutrients, water, labor, land • Raise efficiency of inputs (fertilizer, labor) • Invent more productive inputs • Crop varieties: “biotechnology and all that” • Raise effective price by reducing marketing costs • Reduce input costs: fertilizer, type, delivery Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  35. Local agricultural research to develop new technology • Transfer from similar ecosystems • by public sector -- CGIAR, national organizations • by private sector -- NGOs, private companies, etc. • Develop locally • by public sector -- declining effort in nearly every country in SSA: in Kenya all funds except salaries from donors • by private sector -- market size, regulation, IPR • Farmer-participatory technology-development • No output without input! Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  36. Requirements for food security and higher national income in Africa • NOT JUST AG RESEARCH! • Peace, AIDS control, Democracy, Education • Higher rural incomes • Well-adapted, improved farm technology • Well-functioning farm markets • Non-discriminating agricultural policies • Higher rural incomes – agricultural growth --will reduce hunger Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  37. Foundations & Development Total development assistance $60 bil/yr US Gov’t development assistance $18 bil/yr Total 1000 largest US foundations $16 bil/yr For USA domestic activities $15.2 bil For “international, development, peace 413 mil/yr For food, nutrition, agriculture 125 mil/yr For Life Sciences (in S&T) 182 mil/yr Foundations working internationally in agriculture Rockefeller McKnight Kellogg Wellcome Trust Syngenta Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  38. OECD Agriculture Aid 5-year moving av. 1999 prices chart chart Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  39. Conclusions • Rapid change but hunger remains • Highest % in Africa; Largest number in S. Asia • 2000-2050 critical • Growing incomes needed • Economic base is labor and land • => Farming must be the basis for growth • Functioning markets, Dynamic technology • Development aid Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  40. Resources • A.K. Sen, Development as Freedom, Anchor Books, 2000 • FAO, State of Food Insecurity • Population Reference Bureau (searchable data base): www.prb.org • OECD Development Cooperation Directorate: www.oecd.org Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

  41. Resources on Foundations • Non-Profits, Charities, Foundations (Guide Star www.guidestar.org)) • Foundations • The Foundation Center: http://fdncenter.org/ • The Council on Foundations: www.cof.org • European Foundation Centre: http://www.efc.be/ • Development Assistance • Center for Global Development http://www.cgdev.org • Hudson Institute http://www.hudson.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=publication_details&id=3712 Understanding Development Robert W. Herdt, 9/2/2005

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