Instability In Afghanistan

1. Shane Smith - PowerPoint Alexis Yurcon - Moderator Jeff Kulchar - Journalist Rebecca Fritsch - Editor Instability In Afghanistan

2. Problems • In recent years, political decisions have been influenced by the war on terror • These decisions have led to many problems • Government • Security • Ethnic conflicts • Struggles with peace • Narcotics

3. Bonn Agreement • Pros • Created a roadmap and timetable for stabilizing the country • Contained provisions for demobilization and peacekeeping • Proposed that ISAF be used to create security within the country • ISAF - International Security Assistance Force, led by NATO

4. Bonn Agreement • Cons • Made in haste, did not plan for the future of Afghanistan • Departments were distributed to political factions as incentives • Created a spoils system of appointment to public office • The competition worked against development of a unified political elite

5. Pakistan's Failure to deal with the Taliban • General Musharraf's administration initially supported United States right after 9/11 • Pakistan later proved to be a less than adequate ally in the war on terror • Musharraf was a patron of the Taliban • At the onset of Operation Enduring Freedom, key Taliban leaders and thousands of troops relocated to Pakistan, occupying Quetta • Musharraf acknowledged the occupation in 2007, and stated that Afghan militants are supported from Pakistani soil

6. Problems in Government • 2002-Bush blocked ISAF expansion beyond Kabul, Afghanistan's capital and largest city • Helped Taliban Propaganda • Led to further distrust of western countries • The Afghan people are not satisfied with their current government • Voting system is flawed • Encourages vote buying and intimidation • Easy to understand, but also easy to manipulate • Works against the formation of organized political parties

7. Corruption • Many officials are corrupt • Officials are elected with very few votes and are not fit to be in office. • They care more about themselves and their ethnic interests than Afghanistan • Corruption is worst in the judicial branch • Justice cannot be exercised when corruption is so common • It is difficult to change corrupt practices when those in power are benefiting from them

8. Best Case Scenario • Bonn agreement is changed • Spoils system is eliminated or reduced • Unneeded departments of government are destroyed • A primary election is held to limit the number of candidates in an election • ISAF is allowed to expand its influence, bringing stability to the country

9. Worst Case Scenario • Corrupt individuals continue to be elected to public office • Conditions degrade and the Taliban would regain control of Afghanistan • ISAF does not expand its area of influence, and most afghans are not protected from drug lords and militants

10. Most Probable Case • Spoils system and election process will be modified and considered to be improved' • Government may not change for several years • ISAF expansion will take place very slowly unless Obama makes it a priority • Progress will be slowed by the economic situation in the United States

11. Narcotics • Opium production has gotten out of control since the overthrow of the Taliban • Wage Laborers are forced to harvest opium to survive • Eradicating crops may cause many laborers to join the Taliban • Alcohol is viewed as a worse substance that opiates in Afghanistan, and the United States is seen as hypocritical for calling for the eradicating of opium while we allow alcohol

12. Best Case Scenario • Eliminate the causes of opium production • Those who depend on opium profits can be introduced to cereal crops • A banking system needs to be established whereby farmers can get loans to plant such crops

13. Worst Case Scenario • Complete crop eradication • This would be a last resort to stop the production of opiates • Almost all farmers would become recruits for the Taliban • Very few farmers would switch to legal crop production • Funds for cereal crops will be rerouted by corrupt politicians

14. Most Probable Case • The most probable case will most likely consist of many crops being eradicated and relatively few farmers switching to cereal crops • Some may join the Taliban, though not a majority • A banking system will be set up, but may fail if not properly engineered

15. Security • The strength of the Afghan government is directly related to how much security the government is able to provide its people • Afghans are not usually victims of the war on terror, except when in the wrong place at the wrong time • Afghans do, however, need protection from criminal gangs, militia men, and insurgents from out of the country

16. Security • The ISAF needs to expand its areas of influence to protect those living in small villages • A troop surge may help to bring security to many more Afghan people in remote villages

17. Best Case Scenario • A troop surge that has positive effects is the best outcome • More troops would help secure hostile areas and train Afghanistan's army • More troops would also make more progress on the war on terror

18. Worst Case Scenario • The worst outcome would be that a troop surge causes many casualties or increases the citizens' distrust of western countries • A surge could lead to Afghan protests and riots and increased conflicts with the Taliban • A troop surge may idea in Afghanistan because it would increase distrust of western countries • Funding their army may also be harmful because the Afghan people do not want to seem like a puppet of America

19. Most Probable Case • Obama will most likely focus on strengthening the Afghan army • He will also confront Pakistan, trying to keep the Taliban out of Afghanistan

20. Peace • The US has not placed a lot of public pressure on Pakistan • Pakistan is not convinced that the war on terror should be a joint effort for them • These policies create the idea that the united states has sided with Pakistan instead of with Afghanistan

21. Best Case Scenario • Pressure Pakistani leaders to take action against Taliban leaders • This will decrease the number of conflicts in the region • Taliban forces will lose their control over Afghanistan • This could also motivate Pakistan to deal with their own Taliban problem

22. Worst Case Scenario • The worst case would be violence between ethnic groups as a result of the attempted peace • There may also be many civilian casualties inflicted by the Taliban if we engage them

23. Most Probable Case • The most likely outcome of military force against the Taliban and pressure on Pakistan is the capture of some Taliban leaders, but not all • The arrests of these leaders could spark additional rebellion and conflict

24. Summary • Afghanistan is the victim of many poor decisions made in response to dire problems • Problems in countries like Afghanistan cannot be ignored, or they will worsen with time • The complex problems of Afghanistan have no simple solutions • This is why Afghanistan should be one of the top priorities of Barack Obama's administration

25. Study Guide • The study guide is available on the smittycorp wiki at http://smittycorp.wikispaces.com/