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Keeling. PX272 Lecture 6: Political Response. Scientific Prompts. 1985: A scientific conference organized by the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE)
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Keeling PX272 Lecture 6: Political Response
Scientific Prompts 1985: A scientific conference organized by the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) ->SCOPE 29 1986 The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change and Ecosystems ed B Bolin et al (Chichester: Wiley) ~400 citations? 1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -> Comprehensive assessments Year Authors Reviewers 1990 170 200 1997 n/a n/a 2001 639 441 2007 >600 620+govt Engagement: both international (UN) and inter-governmental
1992: Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) • signed by over 160 countries , UN conf Rio 1992, effective 1994. • recognises the reality of global warming and uncertainties of climate predictions • mitigating action needs to be taken despite the uncertainties • developed countries should take the lead in this action. . . . stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Kyoto Protocol 1997 • first formal binding legislation under the FCCC • commits industrialized (“Annex I”) countries to specific reductions in Emissions BUT NOT THE OTHERS. • First commitment period:average emissions 2008–2012 below 1990 levels by 5- 8%for a basket of greenhouse gases. Joint Implementation (cheapest savings) Clean Development Mechanism (avert new emissions) Emissions Trading • US ‘decided to withdraw’ 2002 • Ratification threshold: achieved Feb 2005 by Russia ratifying, but NOT the USA or Australia (new Australian gov’t ratified 2007). • Negotiations on Second commitment period had to start no later than 2005. • December 2005 Montreal: first ‘Meeting of the Parties’ formally decides to launch Second Commitment Period negotiations. (US walkout failed). • Dec 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen: treaty succeeding Kyoto due to be adopted.
EU emissions targets “The EU's goal is to limit the increase in global average temperature to 2°C above the pre-industrial level “
EU Emissions Trading Scheme Commenced on 1 January 2005, first phase to 2007, second phase 2008-2012 to coincide with the first Kyoto Commitment Period. Further five-year periods are expected subsequently. "Cap and Trade" basis. EU governments required to set an emission cap for all installations covered by the Scheme, under “National Allocation Plan”. • Member states must allocate allowances to installations by 28 February each year. • Member States must ensure that by 30 April each year at the latest, the operator of each installation surrenders a number of allowances equal to its emissions the preceding calendar year. • Installations therefore have to surrender allowances for the first time by 30 April 2006 equal to their emissions during 2005. • else excess emission fine€40 / tonne CO2. • Installations will be required to have their annual emissions verified.
From UK national allocation plan - effectively this forces power generators to buy heavily in the UK/EU carbon market
Drax Power Station Example Drax power station — holds £215m worth of annual allowances to emit carbon dioxide (CO2), and expected to buy another 40% on the open market in fiorst year of scheme. July 05: Price of an allowance for a tonne of CO2 emitted had shot up from €6 (£4) to €20, with a peak in early June of €29. (Above €40, cheaper to be fined.) EUA market price, Euro/tonne
UoW allocation ! all tonnes of CO2 per annum
Demise of ETS phase 1 Crashing carbon prices puts EU climate policy to the test Published: Tuesday 2 May 2006 Reports that six EU countries had emitted far less CO2 than anticipated sent carbon prices plummeting last week. ETS Phase 2: some allowances auctioned. Dec 2008: £13.60/tonne.
New EU targets 23 Jan 2008 Require to be endorsed by MEPs and member states ETS sector: 2005-2020 21% cut driven by reduction in CO2 permits Non-ETS sectors: transport, buildings and agriculture: national targets:
America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. ..... 22-percent increase in clean-energy research, to push for (1) zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy. (2) better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen;... cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass ...practical and competitive within six years. [Goal] to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.) ... move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past. GW Bush, State of Union Address, Jan 31 2006
Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen Accord, 19 Dec 09) Agreement by countries to cap the global temperature rise by committing to significant emission reductions, and to raise finance to kickstart action in the developing world to deal with climate change. Supported by a majority of countries, including biggest and richest, and smallest and most vulnerable. Recognizes scientific view that an increase in global temperature below 2 degrees is required to stave off worst effects of climate change. Specifies that industrialised countries will commit to implement, individually or jointly, quantified economy-wide emissions targets from 2020, to be listed in the accord before 31 January 2010. Number of developing countries, including major emerging economies, agreed to communicate their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions every two years, listing their voluntary pledges before 31 January 2010. UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. “The world walks away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised significantly if we are to hold the world to 2 degrees” Because pledges listed may, according to science, be found insufficient to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees, review of the accord by 2015, including consideration of the long-term goal to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. Copenhagen Green Climate Fund. to support immediate action on climate change. The collective commitment by developed countries over the next three years will approach 30 billion US dollars. Long-term finance, developed countries agreed to support a goal of jointly mobilizing 100 billion dollars a year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. Establish a new technology mechanism to accelerate technology development and transfer in support of action on adaptation and mitigation. Yvo de Boer: “we need to be clear that it is a letter of intent and is not precise about what needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge is now to turn what we have agreed politically in Copenhagen into something real, measurable and verifiable”. Next: negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June 10 -> annual UN Climate Change Conference end 2010 in Mexico City.
Brazil Principal commitments …
Abstract from COP15 Press Release (Copenhagen Accord, 19 Dec 09) UNFCCC Exec Sec Yvo de Boer. “The world walks away from Copenhagen with a deal. But clearly ambitions to reduce emissions must be raised significantly if we are to hold the world to 2 degrees. Yvo de Boer: “we need to be clear that it is a letter of intent and is not precise about what needs to be done in legal terms. So the challenge is now to turn what we have agreed politically in Copenhagen into something real, measurable and verifiable”. Next: negotiating session in Bonn, Germany, June 10 -> annual UN Climate Change Conference end 2010 in Mexico City.
