1 / 23

The African Monsoon Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

The African Monsoon Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 08 July 2013. Outline. Current Conditions Precipitation climatology Seven-day precipitation Weekly SST Circulation Madden Julian Oscillation

amalie
Download Presentation

The African Monsoon Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The African MonsoonWeek-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions 08 July 2013

  2. Outline • Current Conditions • Precipitation climatology • Seven-day precipitation • Weekly SST • Circulation • Madden Julian Oscillation • NCEP GFS Guidance for week1 and week2 • NCEP Model outlooks • Expert assessments

  3. Forecast Period Precipitation Climatology Week 2 Week 1

  4. Past Seven Day Precipitation 7 day total precipitation 7 day precipitation anomaly http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/weekly_outlook/week1.jpg

  5. Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (C)

  6. Circulation – 850 hPa 21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013 28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013

  7. Circulation – 200 hPa 21 Jun – 27 Jun, 2013 28 Jun – 04 Jul, 2013

  8. 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomaly • Green shade indicates areas of upper level divergence and convection or precipitation at surface. Brown contours indicate areas of upper level convergence or subsidence and suppressed precipitation at surface.

  9. Wheeler-Hendon Index - Forecasts UKMET NCEP ECMWF Statistical

  10. Evolution of MJO-related anomalies Initial date: 06 July 2013 Red shade indicate areas of suppressed convection Blue shade indicate areas of enhanced convection 1 - 5 days ave. Forecast 6-10 days ave. Forecast 11-15 days ave. Forecast

  11. NCEP GFS 850mb Week 1 forecast

  12. NCEP GFS 200 mbWeek 1 forecast

  13. NCEP GFS 850mb Week 2 forecast

  14. NCEP GFS 200 mbWeek 2 forecast

  15. NCEP GFS week 1 precipitation forecast ending At 00z: 15 Jul 2013

  16. NCEP GFS week 2 precipitation forecast ending At 00z: 22 Jul 2013

  17. NCEP GFS bias corrected forecasts for week-1

  18. NCEP GFS bias corrected forecasts for week-2

  19. NCEP CFS Ensemble Mean forecasts for week-1 & 2

  20. NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance Ending at 00Z of 15 July 2013 • The probability of exceedance: • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold

  21. NCEP GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance Ending at 00Z of 22 July 2013 • The probability of exceedance: • Red shade indicates highest chance for precipitation to exceed the pre-defined precipitation threshold • Light green shade indicated lowest chance for precipitation to exceed the threshold

  22. Experimental Week1 and Week 2 Outlook 09 Jul – 15 Jul 2013 16 Jul – 22 Jul 2013

More Related