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Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency

Dive into the intricate relationship between micro and macro labor market data, examining job creation, firm productivity, and worker trends. Uncover the complexities of aggregate patterns derived from detailed micro-level insights. Understand the impact of hiring, layoffs, and quits on overall economic behavior. Explore open theoretical and empirical questions to enhance labor market understanding.

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Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency

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  1. Micro and Macro Data Integration and Consistency By John Haltiwanger University of Maryland and NBER

  2. Overview • Ideal micro-macro consistency: • CES reports net job loss of 70,000 jobs in the month • Drill down beyond industry and state • Job creation/hiring vs. job destruction/separations • What type of workers? • What type of firms? • Productivity growth surging – again drill down beyond industry: • Continuing establishments vs. entry/exit • Real time micro-macro consistency very ambitious but currently even with substantial lag it is difficult • But it is even more than this – i.e., sometimes more than just details • the “aggregate” patterns reflect complex aggregation of micro patterns that may vary dramatically from aggregate patterns.

  3. Trends in Unemployment Inflows, Outflows and Escape Rates (CPS) Quarterly Averages of Monthly SA values for Experienced Unemployed

  4. Aggregate Worker Flows: Convolution of hiring/separation micro functions and cross sectional distributions important for hiring Vs. firing view of recessions Open theoretical/empirical questions: Properties of h, s and f

  5. Hires and Establishment Growth

  6. Quits and Layoffs vs Establishment Net Growth, JOLTS

  7. Separations-Net Relation in JOLTS Micro Data Pooled Sample, 12 High-Growth and 12 Low-Growth Months

  8. Hiring/net growth micro relationship stable across high and low aggregate growth periods Layoff/net growth micro relationship stable across high and low aggregate growth periods

  9. Interactions between nonlinearities and cross sectional distribution potentially important for aggregate fluctuations

  10. Closing thoughts • Lumpy micro, smooth macro • Nonlinear micro • Adjustment costs • Inherent asymmetries of different margins of adjustment (hiring, layoffs, quits) • Heterogeneous micro • Idiosyncratic shocks are an order of magnitude larger than aggregate shocks • Aggregate behavior is a complex aggregation of lumpy, nonlinear micro behavior aggregated over heterogeneous units • Relevant for many issues including helping understand labor market dynamics in last two recessions • Also important for investment, productivity dynamics, etc.

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