1 / 18

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries: Anticipating Value Chain Transformations

Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making. 16th- 17th October 2008. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries: Anticipating Value Chain Transformations & Need for Policy Action.

amara
Download Presentation

Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries: Anticipating Value Chain Transformations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries: Anticipating Value Chain Transformations & Need for Policy Action Fabienne Abadie, IPTS Michael Friedewald, Fraunhofer, ISI Matthias Weber, ARCsys

  2. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Background EPIS Project Rationale • Supporting EU “i2010” Initiative for growth & jobs in IST • Significance of the creative content industries for Europe • ICTs - key driver for supply & demand of creative content industry • Complex sector, under disruption and with high level of uncertainty • Need for forward-looking intelligence building, with pan-European dimension, in order to deploy EU policy instruments to stimulate development of digital economy • Objectives • Development of observatory of trends in technology and business evolutions of ICT • Running foresight exercise on ICT & Creative Content (CC) Industries • Exploring specific implications for R&D policy in ICT

  3. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries The Creative Content Sector Graphical definition Heavily industrialised services • advertising & marketing, • broadcasting, • film industries, • Internet and mobile content industry, • music industries, • electronic publishing and print, • video & computer games Less industrialised activities • museums and library services • visual arts (painting & sculpture) • performing arts, Other creative activities(crafts, fashion, design)

  4. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Approach A Participatory Foresight Exercise • Following an “adaptive foresight process” (M. Weber) • Adapting to changing context • Iterative monitoring • Including targeted strategy process • Adjusted to needs of policy makers • Embedded in the full policy cycle • Multiple instruments for exploring future developments, impact on “social” & “economic” sustainability of CC sector and policy needs

  5. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  6. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour IA Project team Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  7. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 1 - Sector Analysis Key features • Defining research scope • Analysing key characteristics of creative content value chain • General framework applied to each sub sector • Analysis of content creation / distribution / consumption • Assessment of European position • Complemented through review of ICT innovation and analysis of user behaviour • Picture of emerging trends impacting the CC sector (incl. impact on sustainability) • Two potential diverging future paths, with different type of risks for the CC sector

  8. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 1 - Findings • User demand • New vs. constant usage patterns • Shift from individual to group dynamics • Mobility • Demographics & the young generations • Social participation in creative activities • Usability, communication and attention • Techno-economic trends • Cheaper tools for reconfiguration/ experimentation & decentralised production • Innovative business models • Space agnostic nature of communications networks open new audiences and niche markets • “Winner takes it all” dynamics • Democratisation of the spotlight (long-tail effects) • User attention and navigation issues

  9. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Project team Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Impact Assessment Realtime online Delphi Consensus vs controversial issues Broad expert participation Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  10. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 2 - Delphi survey Key features • Internet-based, realtime • Selection of theses • Sample: • 1111 experts • 426 visited site • 288 participated out of which 124 returned at least once • Led to identification of topics not raising consensus but not suited to identify radically new developments • Method based on weak signals identification perhaps better suited

  11. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Project team Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Realtime online Delphi Consensus vs controversial issues Impact Assessment Broad expert participation Scenario development Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Workshop (restricted,experts) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  12. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 3 - Scenarios Process overview • Sector analysis and Delphi results as input • Restricted expert workshop • Global context • Selection of dimensions • Four scenarios •  Revised list of issues of relevance to assess impact of future • socio-techno-economic trends on CC sector sustainability

  13. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries The openinnovation society IT is not cool,get a life! Society meetsindustry Incumbents take it all Step 3 – The Four Scenarios Competitive business environment Negative public attitude towards CC, lack of demand Positive public attitude towards CC, demand Oligopolistic business environment

  14. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Project team Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Realtime online Delphi Consensus vs controversial issues Broad expert participation Scenario development Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Workshop (restricted,experts) Impact Asessment Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Issues analysis Scenario analysis Workshop (stakeholders) Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  15. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 4 - Issues Analysis Process • Open workshop with experts from different CC sub sectors • Discussion structured around key elements of scenarios • Infrastructure • Practices of content production and distribution • Practices of content use • Interaction, interfaces and institutions • Aim to detect implications of scenarios on players’ strategy, legal environment etc. • Difficulty to reach consensus • Analysis of impact on sustainability of CC sector

  16. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Sector Analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Project team Transformation pressures in the CC value chain Realtime online Delphi Consensus vs controversial issues Broad expert participation Scenario development Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Workshop (restricted,experts) Impact Assessment Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Issues analysis Scenario analysis Workshop (stakeholders) Policy analysis Policy implications Workshop (restricted, client) Methodology set-up Main elements • Step 1 – Sector Analysis • Step 2 – Delphi Survey • Step 3 – Scenario-building • Step 4 – Issues Analysis • Step 5 – Policy Analysis

  17. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Step 5 – Policy Analysis Main results • Final analysis to derive policy options • Identified directions of change lead to policy challenges • Cross-cutting issues require policy attention in various areas • Challenges for policy include • Fostering ICT and creative skills • Fostering innovation

  18. Adaptive Foresight In The Creative Content Industries Conclusion Lessons learnt • Impact Assessment framework cannot be fixed from the outset when sector studied is undergoing profound transformation • High level of uncertainties makes it difficult even for experts to imagine future impacts • Step-by-step approach successful to help understand the sector evolution • Immediate impact of FTA limited but important issues raised • FTA successful in generating several forward-looking perspectives • Adaptive aspect of the methodology proved beneficial • Difficult to apply FTA (even adaptive) to a sector in turmoil

More Related