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Exchange Rates and Trade

Explore the disconnect between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals in various countries, along with the impact on trade. Analysis includes carry trade, interest rate differentials, and undervalued currencies.

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Exchange Rates and Trade

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  1. Exchange Rates and Trade Mr. Heiner Flassbeck Director, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, UNCTAD Geneva, 28th March 2012

  2. Exchange rates have become disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals Real effective exchange rate, selected countries, 2000–2011 (Index numbers, 2005 = 100, CPI based), source: IMF 2

  3. Exchange rates have become disconnected from macroeconomic fundamentals Real effective exchange rate, selected countries, 2001–2010 (Index numbers, 2005 = 100, ULC based), source: UNCTAD Secretariat calculation based on Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD for ULC data

  4. Carry trade vis-à-vis Japanese Yen, 2005-2012 (Per cent) Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on IMF, International Financial Statistics database; and national sources. Note:A positive change in the exchange rate indicates an appreciation of the currency concerned. Interest rate differential is calculated considering difference between selected currencies and the yen-denominated asset. Monthly data.

  5. Carry trade vis-à-vis Japanese Yen, 2005-2012 (Per cent) Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on IMF, International Financial Statistics database; and national sources. Note: A positive change in the exchange rate indicates an appreciation of the currency concerned. Interest rate differential is calculated considering difference between selected currencies and the yen-denominated asset. Monthly data.

  6. Carry trade vis-à-vis Japanese Yen, 2005-2012 (Per cent) Source: UNCTAD secretariat calculations, based on IMF, International Financial Statistics database; and national sources. Note:A positive change in the exchange rate indicates an appreciation of the currency concerned. Interest rate differential is calculated considering difference between selected currencies and the yen-denominated asset. Monthly data.

  7. International reserves and net portfolio investment, 2005-2011 Source: Unctad Secretariat calculations, based on IMF, International Financial Statistics database. Note: Total reserves correspond to total reserves minus Gold and an increase in reserves corresponds capital outflows. Quarterly data.

  8. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Brazil,1995-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  9. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Argentina,1991-2010 (2005 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  10. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, China,1987-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  11. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Republic of Korea,1984-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  12. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Thailand,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  13. Exchange Rates and Trade Thank you

  14. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Malaysia,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  15. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Iceland,1989-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  16. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Sweden,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  17. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Italy,1984-2010 (2005 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  18. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Hungary,1995-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  19. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, South Africa,1995-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  20. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Germany,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  21. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, United Kingdom,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  22. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Switzerland,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  23. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Canada,1980-2010 (2005 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  24. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, United States,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  25. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Japan,1980-2010 (2000 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  26. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, Australia,1980-2010 (2005 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

  27. General pattern for exchange rate adjustment: undervalued currencies Deviations of nominal effective exchange rate from effective purchasing power parity, New Zealand,1980-2010 (2005 = 100), source: UNCTAD Secretariat

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