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(iv) (v)

(iv) (v). In Model II, the effect of D 4 was that PCIM had increased by 88 grams and PCDP had declined by nearly 20 grams. The effect of this factor on prices at the retail was an increase equal to 28 cents per kilogram for cereals purchased. Considering the relative stability of

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(iv) (v)

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  1. (iv) (v) In Model II, the effect of D4 was that PCIM had increased by 88 grams and PCDP had declined by nearly 20 grams. The effect of this factor on prices at the retail was an increase equal to 28 cents per kilogram for cereals purchased. Considering the relative stability of prices in the retail outlets at the semi-urban sector, this is rather a significant change. No such effect can be deduced from our results as regards prices received by farmers which is rather odd. Model III indicates similar pattern and direction of causal effects on PCIM and PCDP. PCIM increased by approximately 88 grams. PCDP declined by nearly 18 grams during that period. These are very critical developments that tend to sharpen management decisions expected of policy-makers in order to resolve the food deficit situation in Somalia. We will return to this topic at a later stage. ( H ) Domestic production, imports and price trends : ( I ) When all decision factors are taken into account as model specifications suggest, then growth rates of each dependent variable estimates may be derived from interpretation of the trend variable. The trend coefficients estimated in Model I, II and Ill for PCDP, PCIM, and prices indicate very realistic approximations close to recent FAO figures for Somalia. More precisely, Models I, and II and III indicate a growth rate for PCDP of consistently less than 1% per year for the period 1958-1983. Equally consistent estimates are generated for prices received by farmers equal to less than 10/o per year. For imports, the trend coefficients estimated in Models I, II, and III indicate the following figures 3%, 3% and 4% respectively per year throughout the 1958-83 period. For prices at the retail, Model II estimates indicate a growth rate of 2% per year whereas in III, the growth rate figure for this parameter appears to suggest something less than 1 % per year. These, generally, are in conformity with current (FAO and other) estimates now available. ( ii) Per capita kilogram cereal requirement (Y6) had hardly changed during the period of study as indicated by the trend co-efficient. 22

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