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Today. Is human population the root cause of a disastrous future? Will natural resources allow us to continue to thrive? All power point images are only for the exclusive use of Phys3070/Envs3070 Spring term 2014. Sustainability 101: Arithmetic, Population, and Energy.

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Today

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  1. Today Is human population the root cause of a disastrous future? Will natural resources allow us to continue to thrive? All power point images are only for the exclusive use of Phys3070/Envs3070 Spring term 2014

  2. Sustainability 101:Arithmetic, Population, and Energy • Presented in Honor of Prof. Albert A. Bartlett

  3. Dr. Albert Bartlett University of CO professor of nuclear physics since 1950. Deceased at age 90 on 7 September 2013. Has given presentation over 1,700 times since 1969 CU Environmental Centerhosts trainings to learn how to give the presentation Learn more about Dr. Bartlett and read his articles at www.albartlett.org

  4. The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function! A2B

  5. The exponential function is the mathematical function that is used to describe the size of anything that is growing steadily. For example: 5% growth per year

  6. A bit of math If the return is a constant fraction of the investment or other quantity n(t) dn(t)/dt=a n(t) With a = the return, eg. interest, units 1/time 4.5%/yeara=0.045/year Growth ‘only’ 1.9% a=0.019

  7. Result-exponential growth n(t) = n0 e a t, with n0 the amount you started with at t=0 n(t) = 2n0, when? One doubling time.

  8. T(2) (the doubling time)= 70/ (percent growth per unit of time) Thus a growth rate of 5% per year has a doubling time ofT(2) = 70 / 5 = 14 years Where did 70 come from?70 ≅ 100 ln 2 = 69.3

  9. At 7%/year • Doubling time = 70/7(%)=10 years

  10. The cost of an all-day lift ticket at Vail has been growing about 7% per year ever since Vail first opened in 1963. 1963 $5 1973 $10 1983 $20 1993 $40 2003 $80 And what do we have to look forward to? 2014 Single-day, walkup = $129 2013 $160? 2023 $320? 2033 $640?

  11. A June 2013 report from the University of Washington suggests the population of Africa will increase from 1.1 billion in 2013 to 4.2 billion in 2100, an increase of 400% in 87 years! 1.54% per year (Only!)

  12. On July 7, 1986 the news reports indicated that the world population had reached five billion people growing at the rate of 1.7% per year. Doubling Time:T(2) = 70 / 1.7 = 41 YEARS!

  13. 1986: World population ~ 5 billion Growth ~ 1.7% per year Doubling time ~ 41 years 1999: World population ~ 6 billion Growth ~ 1.3% per year Doubling time ~ 53 years 2013: World population = 7.11 billion (13 September, 2013) Growth ~ 1.1% per year Doubling time ~ 63 years

  14. If this modest 1.3% per year (1999 growth rate) could continue, the world population would reach a density of one person per square meter on the dry-land surface of the earth in 780 years... and the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in 2,400 years!

  15. “Excuse me, sir. I am prepared to make you a rather attractive offer for your square.”

  16. Table of Options ...... Things That Increase Population Things That Decrease Population procreation motherhood large families immigration medicine public health sanitation peace law and order scientific agriculture accident prevention clean air ignorance of problem ........ abstention contraception or abortion small families stop immigration disease war murder and violence famine accidents pollution and smoking ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ <<<EDUCATION?>>>

  17. Let us examine now the characteristics of steady growth in a finite environment.

  18. Imagine bacteria growing steadily in a bottle. They double in number every minute. At 11:00 am we put one bacterium in the empty bottle, and then we observe the bottle is full at 12:00 noon. Question 1: At what time was the bottle half full? Answer: 11:59 am

  19. Question 2 If you were an average bacterium in that bottle, at what time would you first realize that you were running out of space?

  20. Bacteria In a Bottle (The Last Minutes)

  21. Suppose that at 11:58 am some of the bacteria realize that they are running out of space, so they launch a great search for new bottles. They search offshore, on the Outer Continental Shelf, in the Overthrust Belt, and in the Arctic and they find THREE new bottles.

  22. Question 3 How long can the growth continue as a result of the discovery of three new bottles? (This discovery has quadrupled the size of the proven resource.)

  23. Answer 11:59 Bottle #1 is half full 12:00 Bottle #1 is full 12:01 Bottles #1 AND #2 are full 12:02 All four bottles are full That’s the end of the line!

  24. Q. But haven’t many of our bigger fields been drilled nearly dry? A. There is still as much oil to be found in the U.S. as has ever been produced. So it is now 11:59?

  25. LOG scale!!!!

  26. The Hubbert equation Find a function that begins to grow exponentially, but slows and ends, as the resource goes away. P(t)=Q∞ w *1/[e-(w(t-t)/2) +e+(w(t-t)/2) ] P(t)=rate of consumption, Q∞ =total amount of resource, t=year of max consumption, w=rate(width of the peak. Whent<<t an exponential, T/Q=fractional extraction each yearw e-wt/2ewt/2

  27. Still going up!

  28. Oops, down!

  29. March 7, 1956 San Antonio, Texas Dr. M. King Hubbert addressed a convention of petroleum geologists and engineers and told them that his calculations led him to conclude that “the peaks of [U.S. oil and gas production] can be expected to occur within the next 10 to 15 years.” (1966-1971)

  30. UK coal and the Hubbert fit

  31. Norwegian oil

  32. Is human population to follow a Hubbert curve?

  33. Three new bottles of nutrients for the bacteria.

  34. During an interview (7/7/06) with James Fallows of the Atlantic Monthly, former President Bill Clinton cited peak oil as one of the three major issues that “look different” to him now than when he was President. “Clinton said, as President he had never received a security briefing which stated that by 2010 or so, ‘we’ll reach peak oil production globally.’” ASPO-USA, Peak Oil Review, Vol. 1, No. 28, July 17, 2006, p2

  35. On May 1, 1996, during the Clinton administration Dr. Bartlett gave this talk, including the discussion of the Hubbert Peak, at the Washington D.C. headquarters of the U.S. Department of Energy. His host was a Ph.D. non-scientist who was head of the petroleum division. After Dr. Bartlett’s presentation his host assured him over lunch: “You don’t have to worry about petroleum because we’ve got everything under control.”

  36. “As long as entrepreneurs and investors are given a free hand, drop your fears about finite resources. History speaks and overwhelmingly says that resources come from man’s inventive capability. We are not, nor have we ever been, bound by finite resources.” Rich Karlgaard, Publisher of Forbes Magazine May 19, 2008, p27

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