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Virginia’s Growing Mature & Diverse Population: Implications for the Transportation Sector

Virginia’s Growing Mature & Diverse Population: Implications for the Transportation Sector. Kevin F Byrnes, AICP kevin.byrnes@vda.virginia.gov Aging Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging. Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas.

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Virginia’s Growing Mature & Diverse Population: Implications for the Transportation Sector

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  1. Virginia’s Growing Mature& Diverse Population:Implications for the Transportation Sector Kevin F Byrnes, AICP kevin.byrnes@vda.virginia.gov Aging Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging

  2. Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas

  3. Short-term Trends: 2000 – 20031. Migration > Natural Increase2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic Diversity

  4. Demographic Change: P1 = P0 + Components of Change: Natural Increase: (Births0-1 – Deaths0-1) + Net Migration: (In-Migrants0-1 – Out-Migrants0-1) + residual

  5. Increasing Racial Diversity

  6. Increasing Ethnic Diversity

  7. Changing Age Structure: The Baby-Boom Tidal Wave • Boomers born between 1946 & 1964 • Year 2000: Boomers = Persons aged 36-54 • Year 2004: Boomers = Persons aged 40-58 • Year 2006: Boomers = Persons aged 42-60 • Year 2010: Boomers = Persons aged 46-64 • Year 2016: Boomers = Persons aged 52-70 • Year 2024: Boomers = Persons aged 60-78

  8. Virginia’s Projected Population Growth, 2000 - 2030

  9. The Growing Importance of Senior Cohort

  10. Demographic Trends, 2000 - 2025

  11. Trends in Life Expectancy

  12. What Lies Ahead?Projected US Life Expectancy Range: Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series NH = “Non-Hispanic” Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC 20233. Jan 13, 2000.

  13. Possible Impact of Aging Trends on Virginia’s Transportation Sector

  14. In 2003, Virginia’s population age 60 & over represented 15.6% of the state total, compared to Florida’s 22.4% (1st in the Nation) • Based on national projections, Virginia’s age 60+population share(24.3%)in 2025 will be roughly comparable to Florida’s current age structure (persons age 60+ =22.4%of total in 2003).

  15. Estimated & Projected Licensees, by Age

  16. “Driving Age” Household Population Forecast

  17. Mean Daily Trips & Miles Forecast: Senior Drivers * SOURCE: The 2001 National Household Travel Survey, person file, U.S. Department of Transportation. (Link)

  18. Traffic Fatalities by State Source: US Statistical Abstract: 2004-2005, Table No 1090, page 697

  19. Estimated & Projected Traffic Fatalities: Senior Virginians

  20. Vehicles/Household by Age of Householder, 2000

  21. Work Status & Vehicle Availability for Older Virginians, 60 & over, 2000 Source: 2000 Census, PUMS Data, 5% Sample of Persons.

  22. Age Differences in Commuter Mode Choice, 2000

  23. Contact Information: Kevin F Byrnes, AICP Demographer Virginia Department for the Aging 1610 Forest Ave, Suite 100 Richmond, VA 23229 (804) 662-7047 Kevin.Byrnes@vda.virginia.gov http://www.vda.virginia.gov/downloadable.htm

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