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Update to COPC 4 – 5 November 2014 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

Update to COPC 4 – 5 November 2014 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM. Agenda. National ESPC NUOPC UEO Committee NUOPC CMA Committee Update Questions and Discussion. 2. The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Inter-agency Project. National ESPC Strategy Whitepaper.

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Update to COPC 4 – 5 November 2014 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

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  1. Update to COPC 4 – 5 November 2014 Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

  2. Agenda • National ESPC • NUOPC UEO Committee • NUOPC CMA Committee Update • Questions and Discussion 2

  3. The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Inter-agency Project

  4. National ESPC Strategy Whitepaper • Final version sent to Liaisons incorporating Agency feedback and ESG comments • 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Continue working on the National ESPC Strategy whitepaper and publish as a response to the 2006 BAMS “Uncoordinated Giant” article, highlighting NUOPC successes. • Draft proposal for BAMS sent to Liaisons • 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Create a National ESPC Strategy 2-pager to distribute appropriately to get support for the project. • National ESPC staff drafting Strategy 2-pager for distribution to Liaisons

  5. UEO Committee Update

  6. Unified Ensemble Operations UEO continuing efforts to collect wave ensemble metrics; NAWES providing updates at UEO and NAEFS telecons NUOPC metrics from NCEP and FNMOC briefed to ESG 2014 ensemble User Survey summaries briefed to Navy and AF; working NOAA summary

  7. 5-day forecast for surface wind (U) 10-day forecast for surface wind (U)

  8. NH T2m

  9. NA T2m

  10. Relative performance of models varies by forecast lead time and region, but NUOPC is consistently best for all lead times and regions.

  11. FNMOC is now providing all Centers’ models and multi-model NUOPC products to its customers. (FNMOC) (NCEP) (NCEP) (FNMOC) (Canadian) CMC added to NUOPC at FNMOC

  12. CMA Committee Update

  13. Common Model Architecture • CMA working final edit of manuscript for ESPS paper to BAMS • Added NUOPC Compliant Components to ESPS Coupled Modeling Systems; briefed to ESG • Just got HYCOM in CESM running in a HYCOM-ICE configuration; not yet scientifically valid but that will take some time. • ESMF 7.1.0 release in Nov 2014 • PI Group drafting high-level requirements document for Physics Driver interface design and modernized Kalnay Rules paper for AMS NUOPC

  14. Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS) • ESPS is a collection of NUOPC-compliant Earth system component and model codes • interoperable, documented, available to credentialed users • Implementation is part of NOPP project awarded under ESPC • “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models” • ESPS interfaces are based on ESMF and the NUOPC Layer • The NUOPC Interoperability Layer: • a set of rules for coding ESMF-compliant Earth system component and coupled models • ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave): • http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/esps/ DeLuca et al. 2014 (draft)

  15. Questions & Discussion

  16. For all three individual bias corrected ensemble forecast (NCEP/GEFS, CMC/GEFS and FNMOC/GEFS) and combined (NUOPC) ensemble (equal weights) against UKMet analysis Period: April 2011 – October 2014 NUOPC Verification Metrics EMC/NCEP October 28th 2014 Acknowledgement: Dr. Yan Luo

  17. 5-day forecast NH 500hPa CRP scores NH 500hPa anomaly correlation Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30-day running mean scores of day-5 CRP score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts.html NH 500hPa RMS errors Under-dispersion Over-dispersion Ratio of RMS error over spread

  18. 10-day forecast Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30-day running mean scores of day-10 CRP score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts.html

  19. NH CRP scores NH RMS errors 5-day forecast for surface temperature NA CRP scores NA RMS errors

  20. 10-day forecast for surface temperature

  21. 5-day forecast for surface wind (V) 10-day forecast for surface wind (V)

  22. Latest 4-month statistic scores June 1st – September 30th 2014

  23. 500hPa Height NH anomaly correlation NH CRPS skill scores Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: Latest 2-month scored: CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation All other regions/scores could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/NUOPC/NUOPC_bc_fal2014.html NH RMS errors

  24. NH CRPS skill scores NH RMS errors Surface temperature NA CRPS skill scores NA RMS errors

  25. For surface wind (U) NH RMS/Spread scores NH CRPS skill scores For surface wind (V) NH RMS/Spread scores NH CRPS skill scores

  26. Comparing of NCEP/GEFS, NAEFS and NUOPC for all bias corrected ensemble forecasts, against UKMet analysis Period: April 2011 – October 2014

  27. Day-5 NH 500hPa height Day-10 NH 500hPa height

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