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IREM Forecast. The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. January 26, 2011. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP
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IREM Forecast The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University January 26, 2011
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough (2009 Recession has 6th Q added from GI Forecast) Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
Quarterly GDP Revisions: Global Insight *Projected **Actual
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2013 % Forecast > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Global Insight
U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009 Ranked by Size in 2010 Total - 8,363,000 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – December 2010 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total = 1,124 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9.4 % • GI Fcst • 9.6 • 9.5 • 8.9 • 8.2 • 7.5 • 6.9 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Consumer Confidence 100 Expectations Present Situation Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Interest Rates 2001 - 2015 Forecast > > > > > >
Consumer Prices 2001 - 2015 % Forecast > > > > > > Source: BLS, Global Insight
Oil Prices$ per barrel $/barrel Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Forecast > > > > > Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorNov 2009 – Nov 2010Washington MSA Total 49,200 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov 09 – Nov 10 (000s) Washington + 49,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Unemployment Rate 10.2 – DC 9.3 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 6.0 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis