Insights and Trends from 25 Years of COCOMO Forums

1. Insights and Trends from 25 Years of COCOMO Forums Dan Ligett Softstar Systems Ligett@SoftstarSystems.com www.SoftstarSystems.com (603) 672-0987 25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling -- 11/3/2010

2. OUTLINE • Perspectives • COCOMO 85 talks • Conclusions

3. 1985 - 3

4. “Software Engineering Economics”, Barry Boehm • Oddball text book • still in print after 27 years • 21 printings • still relevant • How come? • revelation? • because we haven’t gotten much better??

5. Perspectivehttp://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/america.png

6. 1985 • “Back to the Future” opened • Time Person of the year: Deng Xiaoping • New Coke (Classic Coke <> Old Coke) • Commodore launches the Amiga • IBM PC AT (1984), 6MHz 80286, 16MB RAM, 20MB disk, MS-DOS 3.0 • MS Windows 1.0 (Windows 3.1 1992) • We worried about Japan and 5GLs.

8. 1985 Call for Participation Goals for the meeting include sharing of experiences of usage, learning about present and proposed capabilities, identifying areas for future research and development. Comparison to and integration of COCOMO with other models is also an appropriate topic for discussion. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, usage experience; novel and unusual applications; extensions to the model; comparison with other models; integration with other models; and data collection and recalibration. In addition, a tools fair we be conducted to demonstrate available implementations.

9. Some Numbers • 800 attendees. More like 1,000 • Probably 500 talks • 77 at COCOMO 85 • 11 from DoD • 38 from Aerospace/Defense • 9 Tool Vendors • 5 Telecom • 9 other Commercial • 2 Academia • 3 Unknown • 7 countries

10. 1985 + 24 = 2010 • COCOMO Meetings • #1 in 1985 • + 24 +24 • #25 in 2009?? • No meeting in 1992 • WIGS = 2 • Software Engineering Institute = 6 • USC =15 • Systems and Software Consortium = 1 • MIT = 1

11. 1985 COCOMO / WICOMO Forum • Barry Boehm * TRW • Wolfhart B. Goethert IITRI • Robert E. Park GE • Marilee Wheaton TRW • Walker Royce * Eclectic Systems • Joe Dean Hanscom Air Force Base • Randall W. Jensen Hughes Aircraft Company • Paul R. Garvey MITRE • George Bozoki * Target Software • Paul Rook * SEPM • Dan Ligett * Wang Institute

12. Barry Boehm, TRW

13. Barry Boehm

14. Dan Ligett, Wang Institute

25. 1984 WICOMO.exe on XP

26. Costar 7.0 Main Screen

27. Lydon & Poynton

28. Lydon & Poynton

29. Stephan Greene, DRC

30. Stephan Greene, DRC, 1 of 2

31. Stephan Greene, DRC, 2 of 2

32. Philip Blackwood, Ford Aerospace

33. Philip Blackwood, Ford Aerospace

34. Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas

35. Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas, 1 of 2

36. Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas, 2 of 2

37. Bernard Price, Army Electronics R&D

38. Bernard Price, Army Electronics R&D

39. Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D

40. Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D, 1 of 2

41. Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D, 2 of 2

42. Walker Royce, Eclectic Systems

43. Walker Royce, Eclectic Systems

44. Gregory Lazarev, GHL

45. Gregory Lazarev, GHL

46. BernwardJopen, Telenet GMBH

47. Bernward Jopen, Telenet GMBH

48. Bernward Jopen, Telenet GMBH, 2

49. George Bozoki, Lockheed

50. George Bozoki, Lockheed