Impact of the Economic Crisis on Children in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP) One Year On

1. Impact of the Economic Crisis onChildren in East Asia and the Pacific Islands (EAP) One Year On Dr Mahesh Patel & Mr Samman Thapa, UNICEF EAPRO Hong Kong, November 2009

2. Average annual growth rates (GDP, constant prices) – 1997 Crisis to Now Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: IMF, September 2009

3. East Asia’s medium to long-term prospects are bright….. GDP % change/year Industrial Production, 2005 = 100 Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: EIU database, October 2009

4. What is the “New Normal”? Quick recovery like ‘97? Scenarios for recovery Source: European Commission

5. Relative openness has affected growth.. Exports of Goods and Services as a % of GDP (2008) GDP growth (%, 2009 Q1) -9.5 -7.8 -6.2 3.1* -7.1 -10.1 -4.3 0.6 6.1 4.4 Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: EIU database, October 2009 * ADB data

6. % 2 1 Indonesia 0 Australia -1 Canada -2 France Spain -3 US Netherlands UK -4 GDP growth (Sep-08 to Mar-09) Italy Korea -5 Germany -6 Malaysia -7 Japan Taiwan -8 Mexico Thailand -9 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 % Medium- and high-tech manufacturing output (% GDP) Category A: Not affected much (China, Indonesia)Example: How Indonesia weathered the storm (producers of capital and high-tech goods suffered larger falls in GDP) • Relatively low trade shares/export to GDP ratio overall – a large domestic market • Exports weighted towards commodities and sent to a diverse range of markets • Low manufacturing/tech shares and correspondingly higher commodity shares in trade Source: World Bank, 2009

7. Category B: Hard hit, but solid fiscal positions to aid recovery (Examples: Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Hong Kong SAR) • Relatively high ratio of export to GDP– lower domestic demand • Exports weighted towards high-tech goods • Hard hit due to existing openness but in much stronger positions to bounce back due Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: EIU database, October 2009

8. Category C: LICs and/or commodity exporters with unique challenges % of GDP Income impact of commodity price changes (Feb ‘08 to Feb ‘09) • Fluctuating commodity prices hurt countries that depend on earnings from few commodities (eg: Copper in Mongolia) Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: World Bank, 2009

9. Category C: LICs and/or commodity exporters: unique challenges (2) • Food prices remain high • Falling ODA is an issue Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: IMF, 2009

10. Children and the current crisis Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS

11. Transmission Channel – Crisis to Children Source: Mendoza, 2009

12. Severely Affected Moderately Affected Least affected Overall 75.0 71.1 70.0 65.0 58.8 60.0 58.6 58.8 57.6 55.0 52.9 52.2 50.0 50.6 50.0 49.1 50.1 49.8 49.0 45.5 45.7 45.0 44.1 44.1 42.6 41.6 41.7 40.0 35.0 Year 1990-94 Year 1995-96 Year 1997-98 Year 1999-00 Year 2001-06 Why this matters in East Asia – experiences from ‘97/98 Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: Bhutta, 2009

13. MNCH in EAP: Potential effects this time Source: Bhutta, 2009

14. Outcomes – potential and observed • Child and maternal health: • If unaddressed, the current crisis could increase rates of maternal anemia, prevalence of low birth weight, childhood stunting, wasting , and under 5 child mortality (Bhutta 2009). • Wasting among poor urban children in Cambodia increased from 6 % in 2005 to 15.9 % in 2008, primarily due to rising food prices. • Education: • Evidence of households of migrant workers in Viet Nam taking children out of school and/or delaying school payments, or contemplating these as coping strategies. • Similar news coming from the Pacific Island Countries. • Job losses and income poverty: • 20-25 million migrant workers in China were retrenched. • World Bank estimates 10 mi. people in EAP who would have escaped poverty this year will not be able to do so. • Reduced Official Development Assistance: • UNCTAD figures show cumulative drop of 30% of ODA by the 5th year of a banking crisis in a donor country. • Shortfall in Australian funds for UNICEF in PNG.

15. Why all of this still matters in the current crisis in East Asia and the Pacific Source: UNICEF, 2007

16. Household expenditures on food (%)Poorest 30% and national average Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: Key Indicators 2008, ADB

17. Fiscal stimuli targeting income poverty: right focus for protecting children? East Asia, led by China, has made significant progress in reducing adult poverty over the last 2 decades. What about child poverty? Type your title in this FOOTER area and in CAPS Source: GMR page 19, World Development Indicators 2008

18. Adult income poverty is a poor predictor of child poverty

19. What is UNICEFdoing?

20. Selected UNICEF Initiatives (1): Workshops and Conferences • Regional: “Impact of the Economic Crisis on Children,” Singapore, January 2009 • Lao PDR: Conference on “Potential Impacts of he Global Financial Crisis on Children in Lao PDR,” February 2009 • Indonesia: Conference on “Monitoring the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Poor and Vulnerable in Indonesia,” March 2009; Social Budgeting Training (February 2009) • Myanmar: Social Sector Analysis Workshop (July 2009) • Pacific Island Countries and PNG: Planned Conference on the Impact of “The Human Face of the Global Economic Crisis in the Pacific: Impacts on and Responses for Pacific Island Children and Women” in February 2010 • Viet Nam: High-level conference on child poverty that includes session on economic crisis (November 26-27, 2009) in Hanoi

21. Singapore Conference - Key Lessons • EAPR bore significant social costs in ‘97/98 – children particularly so – ↑ malnutrition, school dropouts ↓ social indicators • Understanding now is time to act on this to avoid repeat: – Use crisis as opportunity to scale up social protection – Importance of reliable data for effective interventions • Investing in social protection not only morally desirable – Also makes economic and political sense – can have multiplier effects when used as part of fiscal stimulus

22. UNICEF Initiatives (5): Real-time monitoring Monitoring: Number of countries (undertaking real-time monitoring, either using sentinel sites or multi-method approaches: • EAPRO: Proposed methodology to monitor impact of the crisis in real-time using sentinel sites (February ‘09) • Mongolia: Launching real-time monitoring on health, education, welfare and child protection by December 2009 • Lao PDR: EAPRO assisted development of EAPR methodology published in GSP to suit country context • Pacific Island Countries: Multi-method, real time surveillance in 10 sentinel sites across 5 countries. Started in September ‘09, will continue for 2 years • Viet Nam: Multi-method rapid impact assessment of the impact of the crisis on migrant workers and their families. First round of results released in July ‘09

23. THANK YOU! • http://www.unicef.org/eapro/media_9170.html