"Opportunities and potentials after the referendum: Borders, benefits and bridges"

1. "Opportunities and potentials after the referendum: Borders, benefits and bridges" ESRC Research Seminar Series: 'Close Friends'? Assessing the Impact of Greater Scottish Autonomy on the North of England Seminar 3: Competitive Advantage or Collaboration: Economic Development Issues Paternoster Row, Carlisle, University of Cumbria, 27th June 2014

2. Or: The threats and dangers of separation!

3. Borders?

4. Structure • Why independence? • SWOT or SWOT? • Theory • Treasury/Home Office/... • Alternative visions • Strategies • Spillovers, collaboration and cooperation • Summary

5. Why independence

6. Referendum => debates and discussion • Explosion of interest across country • Huge range of issues, opinions and proposals • Means debate about : “ What sort of Scotland do we want?” • Apart from Project Fear, Better Together, No Thanks, about what possible cf. what costs/obstacles/threats • Generates and encourages different mindsets, potentials, scenarios explored

9. Theory and understanding • Networking, partnership working, coherent support • Triple and quadruple helix • Keys to success: • approach adopted by the ‘zone’ authority to select, assemble and develop the zone; public ownership and resources. • nature of the sites assembled; • development strategy of the ‘zone’ authority • promotion and marketing arrangements for the ‘zone’

10. Context and scale • Theories of borders ... • Importance of being unimportant • But also of being neglected • Focus on/in region, which region, which nation? • Uniqueness not appreciated outwith area? • Who to blame? Influence?

11. A scary border? EU/Non-EU Sami: the social entrepreneur

12. Dark Star • Prof Tony Travers, LSE: “London is the dark star of the economy, inexorably sucking in resources, people and energy. Nobody quite knows how to control it.”  • Vince Cable’s depiction of London sucking the life blood out of the rest of the UK nothing new, but then there is nothing new coming from the Westminster parties that offers a realistic alternative. They are not promising to reverse the gravitation to London of jobs, income, wealth and, most significantly, power, never mind having credible policies or strategies to boost the rest of the UK. • A fundamental challenge to the over-dominant centre is needed for all our sakes, a countervailing centre of activity and hope.

13. Scotland does well but London dominates

14. Loss of RDAs in English regions London’s gain

15. Most do better than expected, especially Scotland so cohesion important

16. Scottish Enterprise Areas

17. Plans for the Borders • Borderlands • Competing (conflicting?) agenda within region, regions, nations? • Lessons from Interreg? • Limitations and constraints • Dialogue is good • Recognised and resourced in Operational Programmes?

18. Plans • Investment in research, development and innovation creates the foundations for new businesses and new jobs. We are starting to harness the jobs potential of a sustainable energy policy. Scotland also has strong chemical and life sciences industries creating opportunities for research into alternative technologies and green chemistry. • Prioritising great quality food production, chemical sciences, medical and life science, construction and engineering, tourism and sports, shipbuilding and the space industry, digital opportunities and creativity, textiles and design, and energy.

19. Plans II • Exports: based on oil services and whisky on sales and distribution channel development • Renewables: realising the economic opportunities by commercialising new generation technologies such as wave and tidal power, for global markets, including developing co-investment models • Frankfurt of the North: support for the financial services sector where long term growth opportunities exist, including the global growth markets for fund management • Growth Sectors: strategies to build competitive advantage in a range of other sectors where global growth niches exist, including tourism, transport, food and drink, creative industries, life sciences, universities and healthy ageing • Infrastructure, human capital, innovation, entrepreneurship, taxation policies and strategies

20. Plans III • Optimising the economic value of natural resources in fishing, land, oil and gas, renewables, sea bed, food, whisky and forestry taking account of environmental concerns • Moving in favour of independent businesses and away from corporations • Moving in favour of manufacturing • Diversifying sectors to make them less reliant on small numbers of purchasers • Pursuing smart specialisation wherever possible • Making diversification of the economy and increase in manufacturing a specific goal • More cooperative and mutual businesses a specific goal • Increasing recognition of wider benefits of local sourcing and local ownership

22. Next few slides from : South of Scotland Economic Perspective November 2013 Scottish Enterprise Scottish Borders Council Dumfries & Galloway Council

23. South Region Summary • Employment rate – 70.8% • ILO Unemployment rate – 7.1% • Claimant count unemployment rate – 3.5% • Working population annual average growth rate – 0% • An aging population • Lower rate of business starts – but lots of tiny business • Few big employers, and the most of the biggest are in the public sector • Disproportionately fewer medium sized businesses • 10 year annual average GVA growth – 0.9% • Productivity Growth 0.6% (GVA per head 10 year annual average growth) • GVA per worker (real prices) - £32,963 – significantly lower than Scotland/UK

24. South Region – Key Messages • Structure (business size / business type) of regional economy leads to • relatively low GVA per head and productivity • Significant lack of “business growth” • micro to small; small to medium; medium to big • Dependence on the primary sector (significant CAP impact) • Importance of food & drink (added value?) products and tourism (particular market segments/sectors) • Service sector driving Scottish growth, but under-represented in the South • Niche “Products” – eg luxury textiles; specialist foods; heritage/cultural/activity tourism • Aging population, retirement location? Significant disposable wealth.

25. Sustainable Economic Growth – Key Issues: Building a “Sustainable” South….. • Infrastructure & connectivity • Sustainable communities • Building on economic & environmental assets • Public/private investment in economy • Support to exploit identified opportunities • Encouraging businesses with capacity and ambition to grow • Business diversification / specialisation • Skills development & retention • Joined-up & self-sustaining approach

28. Summary and agenda • Change is here, ongoing and stimulating • Opportunities to build on strengths and potentials • Institutions, resources, enterprise and enterprises • Dialogue and plans • Wider contexts still dominate but can make it better than status quo