The Territory’s Population, Economy and Labour Force: Trends and Challenges Professor Tony Barnes

1. The Territory’s Population, Economy and Labour Force: Trends and Challenges Professor Tony Barnes Dr Sarah Rummery Northern Territory Treasury and Charles Darwin University

2. Population Basics

3. Key population characteristics *ABS December qtr 2006 preliminary estimate Source: ABS Cat nos 3101.0 and 4705.0

4. Age distribution of Territory and Australian populations Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0

5. Age distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 2006 Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no. 3201.0

6. Highest level of school education completed (adult resident in the Northern Territory) Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

7. Post‑School Qualifications of the Territory’s adult population, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census of Population and Housing

8. Percentage of population living in households of different sizes (occupied dwelling sin the Territory) * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

9. Occupational distribution of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Territorians residing in Darwin

10. Northern Territory Economy

11. Territory and Australian Gross State Product (chain volume measure, annual percentage change) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat. No. 5206.0, 5220.0

12. Industry Proportions of GSP and GDP, 2000-01 to 2005-06 Source: ABS Cat. No. 5220.0

13. Territory Employment and GSP proportions, 2001-02 to 2005-06 Source: ABS Cat. Nos. 5220.0, 6291.0.55.003

14. Territory Merchandise Exports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001 * Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles

15. Territory Merchandise Export by Region of Destination and Commodity, 2001-02 to2005-06, five year average * excluding Japan ^ Other is primarily alumina and may also include; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipmentand miscellaneous manufactured articles. Source: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

16. Territory Merchandise Imports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

17. Territory Merchandise Import by Region of Origin and Commodity, 2001-02 to 2005-06, five year average ^ Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, food and live animals, crude materials, chemicals and related products, animal and vegetable oils and unclassified commodities Source: ABS data service 5432.0.65.001

18. Employment and Labour Force

19. Territory Employment (level)

20. Unemployment Rate

21. Indigenous Employment (level) 2002 - 2006

22. Indigenous Unemployment rate 2002 - 2006

23. Indigenous Labour force participation rate 2002 -2006

24. Northern Territory Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders ‘not in the labour force’

25. Population change and consequences

26. Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (number) Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

27. Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (rate) Footnotes: f - forecast Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

28. Territory Population Growth by Component Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3101.0

29. Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1995 and 2005 Source: ABS Catalogue no. 3201.0

30. Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous Populations, 1996 - 2005 Source: ABS Cat no. 3201.0 and 3238.0

31. Summary measures of ageing, 1996 - 2005

32. Summary Measures of Ageing, 1996, 2005 and 2015

33. Annual Territory Interstate Migration Flows Source: ABS Cat no 3101.0

34. Interstate Migration Probabilities by Age

35. 2001 1996 1991 1986 1981 1976 1971 Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous Indigenous Non-Indigenous 35 years of changing Territory populations 2006 Age Group 85+ 80~84 75~79 70~74 65~69 60~64 55~59 50~54 45~49 40~44 35~39 30~34 25~29 20~24 15~19 10~14 5~9 0~4 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 no. Indigenous Non-Indigenous

36. Northern Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1971-2001

37. Changes to the Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1971-2001 Source: Condon JR, Barnes T, Cunningham J, Smith L. 2004. Demographic characteristics and trends of Northern Territory Indigenous population, 1996 to 2001. CRC for Aboriginal Health, Darwin.

38. A strategy to improve recruitment and retention of interstate and overseas migrants particularly in the 20-39 year age range A strategy to retain older working Territorians for longer in the local workforce rather than retiring A strategy for improving the educationand skill levels of the Territory’s Indigenous population and as such improving their prospects of successfully entering the Territory workforce. Strategies for maintaining future Territory workforce