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Eri Saikawa 1 , Vaishali Naik 1 , Larry W. Horowitz 2 , Junfeng Liu 1 , Denise Mauzerall 1

Present & Potential Future Contributions of Sulfate, Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols from China to Global Air Quality, Premature Mortality & Radiative Forcing. Eri Saikawa 1 , Vaishali Naik 1 , Larry W. Horowitz 2 , Junfeng Liu 1 , Denise Mauzerall 1 1 Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

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Eri Saikawa 1 , Vaishali Naik 1 , Larry W. Horowitz 2 , Junfeng Liu 1 , Denise Mauzerall 1

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  1. Present & Potential Future Contributions of Sulfate, Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols from China to Global Air Quality, Premature Mortality & Radiative Forcing Eri Saikawa1, Vaishali Naik1, Larry W. Horowitz2, Junfeng Liu1, Denise Mauzerall1 1Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 2Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA – Submitted to Atmospheric Environment – December 19, 2008 AGU A54C General Contributions: Chemistry and Composition III

  2. Background • Fine particulate matter PM2.5 has harmful effects on global air quality & human health • PM2.5 affects radiative forcing on climate • China is a major emitter of PM2.5 and its precursors Beijing, China NYTimes, December 29, 2007

  3. Adverse Health Impacts of PM2.5 • Association between PM2.5 ambient concentrations and increased risk of adverse health impacts • Are linear • Have no threshold • Mortality associated with 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 occur within 2 years of exposure – reductions in air pollution can improve public health almost immediately [Pope, 2002, Schwartz et al.,2008]

  4. Global radiative forcings due to emissions of aerosols and precursors changes from 1750-2005 Black carbon has positive radiative forcing Sulfate and organic carbon have negative radiative forcing Indirect effects of aerosols are negative [IPCC, WG1 4th Assessment Report, 2007]

  5. Objectives Analyze impacts of China’s anthropogenic emissions of SO2, SO42-, OC & BC in 2000 and for three emissions scenarios in 2030 on: • global surface concentrations • annual premature mortality • radiative forcing

  6. Methodology • Emission scenarios • With & Without China’s emissions • Calculate change in concentrations due to emissions from China • Global chemical transport model MOZART-2 • Calculate change in annual premature mortality due to China’s aerosols • Calculate change in global radiative forcing • Radiative Transfer Model (RTM)

  7. Emission Scenarios 2000: Baseline • CLE (Current Legislation, IIASA) 2030: Future Scenarios • BAU (Business-As-Usual, IPCC SRES A2) • CLE (Current Legislation, IIASA) • MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction, IIASA)

  8. MOZART-2 Global 3-dimensional chemical transport model • Simulates chemistry & transport of 73 species • Horizontal resolution: 1.9° × 1.9° • Vertical levels: 28 from surface to 2.7 mb • Meteorology: Year 2000 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis • 2.5 year simulation with 1.5 years for spin-up

  9. Premature Mortality Calculation Concentration-response relationship (4%) based on adjusted mortality relative risk associated with a 10µg/m3 change in PM2.5 for all-cause mortality. Gridded population of the world [Pope et al., 2005] [CIESIN, 2000] Surface SO42- concentrations resulting from China’s anthro emissions in 2000 [µg m-3] Mortality Rate of people 30 years or older [WHO, 2000]

  10. Radiative Forcing • GFDL global 3-dimensional radiative transfer model (RTM) • Total net irradiance (solar+terrestrial) at TOA • Horizontal resolution: 2° × 2.5° • Vertical level: 24 from the surface to 3mb • Assumed random cloud overlap • Adjusted radiative forcing • Only direct effects

  11. SO42- Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Surface Concentrations in 2000[µg m-3] OC BC

  12. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Premature Mortality

  13. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Radiative Forcings in 2000 [mWm-2] SO42- OC BC Net

  14. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Radiative Forcing Unit: mWm-2 China’s SO42-, OC & BCcreate net NEGATIVE radiative forcing

  15. Impacts of China’s Aerosols in 2030

  16. Conclusion • China’s aerosols have large impacts on global air quality and premature mortality • China’s sulfate produce large negative forcing • Simultaneously reducing: • Aerosols – to protect health • GHGs – to protect climate • is essential!

  17. Acknowledgments • Dr. Arlene Fiore, GFDL • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for computational resources

  18. Thank you! E-mail: esaikawa@princeton.edu

  19. Emission Scenarios Unit: Tg/yr

  20. Regions

  21. SO42- Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Surface Concentrations in 2030 BAU[µg m-3] OC BC

  22. SO42- Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Surface Concentrations in 2030 CLE[µg m-3] OC BC

  23. SO42- Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Surface Concentrations in 2030 MFR[µg m-3] OC BC

  24. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Radiative Forcings in 2030 BAU

  25. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Radiative Forcings in 2030 CLE

  26. Impacts of China’s Aerosols on Global Radiative Forcings in 2030 MFR

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