1 / 25

A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution

a model tool for the assessment of air pollution levels close to roads. Forward-Looking Information in Environment Assessment Copenhagen May 19-20, 2008. A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution. presented by Lars Gidhagen

amora
Download Presentation

A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. a model tool for the assessment of air pollution levels close to roads Forward-Looking Information in Environment Assessment Copenhagen May 19-20, 2008 A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution Signatur presented byLars Gidhagen Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

  2. Outline • The model tool – components and use • National study PM10 and NO2: Emissions and ambient air levels 2004 and 2020 (study realized Nov 2006 – May 2007) • National study PM2.5: Expected change in ambient air levels 2010 to 2020 (study realized Jan – Apr 2008) Signatur

  3. 1. Model tool – components and use EU directive has far reaching consequences for Swedish municipalities PM10 90-percentile AirBase: >700 sites 19 countries CAFE-PM, 2003 Signatur

  4. Local Local Urban Urban Regional Regional (roadside) (roadside) (LRT) (LRT) SO SO 2 2 NO NO 2 2 PM PM 10 10 CO CO negative negative negative negative O O 3 3 benzene benzene 1. Model tool – components and use Not sufficient to simulate the impact of local traffic! Signatur

  5. Component 1: Road and traffic data- National Road Database (NVDB) - traffic counts and traffic simulation model EMME2 - emission factor model ARTEMISDelivered by the Swedish Road Administration Component 2: Pre-calculated hourly background levels - EMEP expert emissions + SMHI MATCH model + some O3 & PM10 monitoring data => Regional background - Swedish 1x1 km emissions from SMED consortium + SIMAIR Urban model => Urban background contributionDelivered by SMHI Component 3: Web-based user interface with online local models - open road dispersion model for countryside roads - street canyon model (OSPM) for streets with buildings nearby - reports and outputs with statistics for comparison with Env. NormsDelivered and operated by SMHI 1. Model tool – components and use Concept: put together national information on roads, traffic, emissions and weather, add dispersion models - with annual updating of the databases Signatur

  6. 1. Model tool – components and use Present use of the system Development funded by Swedish EPA + Swedish Road Administration Clients:- Approximately 100 municipalities- the 7 regional road administration districts- some consultant companies that works with EIAs- universities (as part of their training and capacity building) Uses (external clientes):- assess compliance of Env. Norms (identify problematic street environments where measurements are needed)- determine consequences of future projects- assess emissions and AQ levels in residential areas with wood stoves (a third local model has been included in the SIMAIR system) Uses (through SMHI):- national assessments of present and future emissions and AQ levels- national assessments of exposure for health assessments (using the third local model) Signatur

  7. 1. Model tool – components and use Example from Norrköping Satisfactorily similarity betweenmeasurements and model output. Signatur • PM10 90-percentil > 50 µg/m3 40-50 µg/m3 35-40 µg/m3 30-35 µg/m3 <35 µg/m3 Norrköpings kommun Miljö- och hälsoskyddskontoret Robert Sandsveden Action plan PM10 (in Swedish) http://www.norrkoping.se/trafik/partikelhalter/

  8. 1. Model tool – components and use PM10 Evaluation against measurements Signatur

  9. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Regional contributions (Europe) SMHI MATCH calculation for EURODELTA 2020 could be used- EMEP expert emissions 2000 and 2020(original delta 2000-2020 corrected to 2004-2020) Reference year 2004- EMEP expert emissions 2003 used (2004 not available)- meteorology for 2004 used also for 2020 Table Present limit values and environmental obectives for 2010 Signatur

  10. Rural measurements Winter half-year PM10 2002-2003, Ambio (2005) 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 levels 2004 in rural areas - Annual averages: decrease northwards- Daily 90-percentiles: Large variability everywhere Signatur

  11. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 Regional contribution 2020 2004 Signatur

  12. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 NO2 Regional contribution 2020 2004 Signatur

  13. Traffic work (million veh,km/year) 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Urban and local contributions: - Swedish traffic emissions SouthernSweden Northern Sweden • SIMAIR has 85-90% of traffic work on individual road links, 10-15% (small roads) as area sources • SMED report to CLRTAP based on top-down estimations • ARTEMIS emission factors • spatial distribution for vehicular traffic from SIMAIR Signatur

  14. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Emissions from Swedish Environmental Emission Data (SMED) PM10 emissions 2004 (national total): Only exhaust particles,no wear particles included % av max other navigation small scale heating traffic trafic Navigation Small scale heating Other Traffic Signatur

  15. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 The source profile for PM emissions varies considerably from city to city Signatur www.luftkvalitet.se Nationell presentation av emissioner och halter. SMHI-rapport 2007 traffic exhaust wood stoves navigation energy/industry traffic wear

  16. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 Swedish emissions: - overall changes 2004 - 2020 PM10 NOx tons/year tons/year traffic exhaust Signatur wood stoves navigation energy/industry

  17. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 Urban background (annual average) 2020 2004 Signatur

  18. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 NO2 annual average street level • A considerably improvement expected • However, SIMAIR has been shown to underestimate NO2 levels in the Norther part of Sweden (due to wintertime inversions) 2020 2004 Signatur

  19. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 annual average levels • (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres) • A small improvement expected, but levels still in the vicinity of the limit value 2020 2004 Signatur

  20. 2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020 PM10 daily 90-percentiles • (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres) • No significant improvement 2020 2004 Signatur

  21. 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 PM2.5: Regional contributions (Europe) SMHI MATCH calculation with IIASA emission scenarios(Amann et al., 2004) for 2020:- CLECLIM: ”Current legislation” with 20 €/ton CO2 after 2010- D23LOW: CAFÉ scenario ”Low ambition” (cost 6 billion €/year) - MFRDEEP: ”Maximum feasible” with 90 €/ton CO2 after 2010 Reference year 2010:- CLECLIM without 20 €/ton CO2 Meteorology:- 1999 for all scenarios Not included in MATCH simulations:- Sea salt, secondary organics, resuspended dust and contributions from forest fires Signatur

  22. Calculated change in regional background levels 2010-2020 (µg/m3) 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in regional PM2.5 • Measured regional PM2.5 levels are in the range 8.5-13 µg/m3 => exposure reduction of 10% will be needed • The 10% reduction in PM2.5 levels is likely to be fulfilled just due to expected LRT changes, except for in the northermost part of Sweden Signatur

  23. 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in local PM2.5 emissions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres Current percentagesof studded tyres 90 75 Signatur 74 30

  24. 3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020 Reductions in local PM2.5 contributions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres • Possible to reduce local PM2.5 contributions with more than half, by reducing the use of studded tyres to around 30% Signatur

  25. Thank you for your attention! Signatur

More Related