A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions:

1. A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India AnanditaSengupta, Ph.D. Student DebanjanBandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student

2. What is an industrial hazard? • Toxic Release • Fire • Explosion Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur

3. The Background • More than 150 industrial clusters in India have concentration of MAH industries; • Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an unplanned manner over time; • Such areas have also witnessed high growth of population over time; • Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a potential accident from MAH industries is very high;

4. Risk Control / Prevention Measures • There are various ways to reduce risk to population in such MAH clusters: • Increase in levels of safety within industries through better management systems, technology and training to employees; • Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly attain control of a potential accident scenario; • Adoption of preventive measures through effective land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH industries;

5. The Concerns • In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been weak in Urban / Industrial areas; • Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor industrial risk; • No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk as a consideration for Land Use Planning; • Planners do not have access to risk information ; • No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be translated into Land Use Planning criteria;

6. Industrial risk and Land use planning How close would you like to live near the two LNG spheres? How close would you authorise building a school near the two GPL spheres?

7. Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…) ?? To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning: • Selection of appropriate accident scenarios; • Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be employed; • Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability criteria; • Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and new installations;

8. Case study town: Haldia • Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner; • The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers; • Some typical land-use patterns : • Planned residential • Industrial • Unplanned mix of residential, agricultural and rural

9. Changes in Landuse • Industrial development 1970s – Port, IOC 1960s – rural landuse

10. Changes in Landuse • Industrial development 1980 & 90s – HPL, Exide, MCC PTA, IBP, HPCL, BPCL

11. Changes in Landuse • Industrial development 2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.

12. Temporal changes in Population 1976 1981 1991 Till 2006

13. Objectives and Approach • To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking into account different potential accident scenarios from a cluster of MAH industries. • Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x Damage Factor • Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the entire Haldia planning area • Versatile approach, with scope for setting benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory bodies

14. Methodology • Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity at individual grid points as a result of industry specific hazard scenarios: • Setting up of reference scenarios based on Maximum Credible Loss Potential for each industry

15. Methodology • Step 1 : Continued • Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity • Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi • Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within 60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec) • Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH • Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3

16. Levels of Concern & Footprint generation Threshold value used 50 mg/m3 Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia) 100 mg/m3 210 mg/m3

17. Methodology (contd…) • Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP = Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability • Hazard potential stands for a measure of likelihood of hazard that may be caused at a point x,y because of a particular accident • Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid point summed up for multiple scenarios as : HPs = ∑ HPi • Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized into category high, medium & low.

18. Methodology • Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor = pop density X quality of housing X sensitivity • pop density - calculated grid wise based on decimetric interpolation method • quality of housing - predominant nature of houses in grid - kutcha, mixed, brick/concrete • sensitivity - no. of sensitive receptors present in grid Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor

19. Thank you!