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2 nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen

Solar energy from the desert for HUMAN SECURITY in a world with 10 billion people Prof. Dr. Michael Düren II. Physikalisches Institut Univ. Giessen, Germany Michael.Dueren@uni-giessen.de. 2 nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen.

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2 nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen

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  1. Solar energy from the desertfor HUMAN SECURITY in a world with10 billion peopleProf. Dr. Michael DürenII. Physikalisches InstitutUniv. Giessen, GermanyMichael.Dueren@uni-giessen.de 2nd Gießen workshop on Solar Energy Partnership between Africa and Europe June 8, 2009, Gießen

  2. Challenges of the 21st century • Population growth • Energy demand • Climate change • Water shortage • Migration Michael Düren, Gießen, June 8, 2009

  3. Population growth and energy demand Nuclear Renewables Gas Cole Oil Population CO2 Our society consumes a quantity of oil in 1 day that needed a geological production time of 1000 years! Beijing

  4. Increase of CO2 concentration The atmospheric CO2-concentration increases rapidly due to the combustion of fossil energy sources.

  5. 01/1979 → 01/2003 01/1979 Climate change Arktis

  6. Global climate change The average world temperature and the sea level are growing due to the green house effect. Arktis, 01/1979 Arktis, 01/2003

  7. Water shortage and migration Our problems are not limited to our energy supply. They will affect our future society in many areas. Spain, 2008

  8. Historic Contributions to Global Warming Present wealth and historic emissions are related Light at night, as seen from sattelite

  9. “The Credibility of Freedom” Let us understand the battle against poverty and climate change as strategic tasks to be solved by us all. As the main sources of the factors causing climate change, the industrialized nations are responsible for the people in developing countries having been hit hardest. The fight against poverty and climate change must be one. "Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Begreifen wir den Kampf gegen Armut und Klimawandel als strategische Aufgaben für alle. Die Industriestaaten tragen als Hauptverursacher des Klimawandels die Verantwortung dafür, dass die Menschen in den Entwicklungsländern am härtesten davon getroffen sind. Der Kampf gegen die Armut und der Kampf gegen den Klimawandel müssen gemeinsam gekämpft werden. Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009

  10. Challenges of the 21st century We are in a race against time

  11. Possible solutions of the energy problem: • Energy saving: most important short term option (lower demand, higher efficiency) • Cole, oil, gas: unacceptable greenhouse gas emission(CO2-storage is an improvement but not a solution) • Nuclear energy: terrorism and proliferation… (13000 new reactors are not a good solution of the world energy problem) • Nuclear fusion: not available in the next 50 years • Photovoltaic: still too expensive to produce many Giga-Watts • Biomass: limited availability and in competition with food production • Wind: excellent options are the northern seas and the southern trade winds • CSP: solar thermal power plants in the deserts: simple, no danger, abundant energy source

  12. Concentrated solar power I Parabolic trough technology: see talk by Kai Schmitz

  13. Solar power day and night Mirror-field Thermal energy storage (liquid salt) Andalucia (Spain)

  14. Plants can grow in the collector shade Concentrated solar power II Fresnel technology

  15. The first Linear Fresnel Solar Steam Generator By NOVATEC-BioSol (Germany), 1.5 MW, in Spain • No water • Consumption • Dry cooling • Dry cleaning Air cooled condensor

  16. Concentrated solar power III Solar tower technology see talk by Bernhard Hoffschmidt

  17. Concentrated solar power IV Dish-Stirling technology see talk by Peter Ruppert Local electricity supply Ideal for rural areas Can be produced and repaired in any car repair shop

  18. The sun, our nuclear fusion reactor Safty distance 150 000 000 km CSP-mirrors, our „Satellite dish“ for energy

  19. Solar energy from the desert: The solar energy irradiated on the deserts of our planet in 1hourexceeds the global energy consumption of 1 year

  20. Economic potential, in PWh/y (= 1 000 000 000 MWh/y) Global demand: 18 PWh/y Desert potential: 3000 PWh/y 126 290 ~1100 144 PWh/y 700 95 11 125 ~200 ~200

  21. Transport of electric power High voltage DC line has little power losses (no 50 Hz radiation i.e. no “electro-smog”) Example: 5 GW, 800 kV; Losses: ~3% in 1000 km Costs: Africa-Europe~ 0,01 €/kWh "Baltic-Cable" in Sweden

  22. Where is your next desert? 90% of the world population lives in a distance of less than 3000 km away from the next desert HVDC 22

  23. Proposal for Europe and MENA

  24. Power demand, and supply scenario in MENA (Middle East & North Africa) MENA Transition mix 2000-2050 including export to Europe and power for desalination 7 x

  25. Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA EU Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend.

  26. Power demand, and supply scenario in EU-25 with 17% import from MENA Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies, nuclear and fossil energy can be phased out to a large extend. >80% renewables

  27. SECURITY ?

  28. Is our current energy system secure? Fossil resources: limited, and dangerous (climate change) resources in the hands of a few suppliers (Gas: Russia,… Oil: Arabia,… and a few others) costs are increasing and unpredictable Nuclear resources: limited, and dangerous (proliferation, terrorism) technology in the hands of a few suppliers (not a problem for Europe) costs for safety are increasing and may become a problem

  29. Security of renewable energies: Solar power supply from >10 countries in MENA and South Europe Thermal storage of CSP regulates day/night demand Fluctuations and failures are averaged out by a distributed system of renewables (sun and wind and others); Large pump storage power stations for long-term storage (Fjords,..) Local fossil power stations (coal) should be kept as backup in case of a political crisis Sun and wind are reliable and long-term stable! Fuel costs will remain stable (0 €/kWh) for the next 50 years 

  30. Estimate of electricity costs from CSP 30

  31. Prediction of electricity costs (for Germany): Geschätzte zukünftige Stromkosten z.B. in Deutschland 31

  32. Market introduction of CSP technology Phase 0 Phase 1 Technology innovation Market introduction 1 conceptual 2 operational 3 bankable 4 commercial • Invention, basic idea • Demo of functionality • Demo of reliability • Cost reduction for competition .

  33. Barrier of Phase 1: CSP market introduction costa coarse assessment Main uncertainty: development of fossil fuel cost CSP capacity for market introduction : 10 GW collectors Operating time: 2500h/y  25 TWh/y Feed in tariff over 20 years:  500 TWh Tariff surcharge 0.1 €/kWh  50 bn € =2.5 bn €/y • Cost of introducing CSP (and saving the climate) = • cost of saving a bank! • The German government alone spent ~1 bn € in 1983 on research of nuclear fission technology • 5% of 1 year world weapon expenses (BICC 2009) • investment of 5 €/person for a 10 bn people world of 2050

  34. Who can pay? Who should pay? USA CANADA EU JAPAN … Where are fast growing power demands in the proximity to deserts? MENA CHINA INDIA ECOWAS …

  35. “The Credibility of Freedom” This crisis offers a unique opportunity in that now, it is clear to all of us that no-one can permanently create advantages solely for himself. We, all of humanity, are in the same boat. And people in the same boat must help each other. In the 21st century, self-interest has come to mean that we must take care of one another. In particular, we in the North must learn to rethink… "Die Glaubwürdigkeit der Freiheit" Die große Chance der Krise besteht darin, dass jetzt alle erkennen können: Keiner kann mehr dauerhaft Vorteil nur für sich schaffen. Die Menschheit sitzt in einem Boot. Und die in einem Boot sitzen, sollen sich helfen. Eigennutz im 21. Jahrhundert heißt: sich umeinander kümmern. Vor allem wir im Norden müssen umdenken… Berlin Address by Federal President Horst Köhler 24 March 2009

  36. Future vision • 100% renewables • Liquid fuels from concentrated solar power (e.g. catalytic reactions at high temperature): • Liquid hydrogen from water, Alcohol from CO2, • …

  37. A global and secure renewable energy concept exists. It is our job to make it happen in time!

  38. References • www.desertec.org • www.physik.uni-giessen.de/dueren/sepa • www.clubofrome.de • www.dlr.de • de.wikipedia.org • … Thanks to Gerhard Knies and the other colleagues from DESERTEC for providing a lot of the transparencies

  39. Yes, we can!

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