1 / 21

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE ON LONG-TERM CARE FOR OLDER PEOPLE IN ENGLAND

This study examines the sustainability of long-term care expenditure in England and the balance between public and private funding. It projects the numbers of disabled older people, volumes of care services, expenditure, and social care workforce.

amosley
Download Presentation

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE ON LONG-TERM CARE FOR OLDER PEOPLE IN ENGLAND

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE EXPENDITURE ON LONG-TERM CARE FOR OLDER PEOPLE IN ENGLAND Raphael Wittenberg, Adelina Comas-Herrera, Derek King, Linda Pickard and Juliette Malley

  2. AIMS OF THE STUDY PSSRU study, funded by the Department of Health, on two related issues: • Whether expenditure on long-term care will remain sustainable in the face of demographic and other pressures; • What should be the balance between public and private expenditure on long-term care. G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  3. MIXED ECONOMY OF SUPPLY • INFORMAL UNPAID CARERS • PUBLIC SECTOR • PRIVATE FOR-PROFIT SECTOR • VOLUNTARY SECTOR G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  4. MIXED ECONOMY OF FINANCE • HEALTH SERVICES – NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE - TAXATION • SOCIAL SERVICES – CENTRAL AND LOCAL TAXATION AND USER CHARGES • DISABILITY BENEFITS - SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM - TAXATION G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  5. ROYAL COMMISSION • COMMISSION RECOMMENDED FREE NURSING AND PERSONAL CARE • ENGLAND IMPLEMENTED FREE NURSING CARE ONLY • SCOTLAND IMPLEMENTED FREE NURSING AND PERSONAL CARE • WALES IMPLEMENTING FREE NURSING CARE AND HOME CARE G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  6. AIMS OF THE MODEL The PSSRU model aims to make projections of: • Numbers of disabled older people • Volumes of long-term care services • Long-term care expenditure: public and private • Social care workforce G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  7. MODEL STRUCTURE: FIVE MODULES • Numbers of older people by age, gender, functional disability, household type/informal care and housing tenure • Residential and non-residential services • Health and social services long-term care expenditure • Expenditure by source of finance • Social care workforce G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  8. NUMBERS OF DEPENDENT OLDER PEOPLE • Age (five bands) and gender • Disability (six groups- IADLs and ADLs) • Household type (five categories) • Housing tenure (two categories) • Informal care (by spouse, children, others) G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  9. Disabled Older People by Disability, England, 2002 G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  10. Disabled Older People by Source of Informal Care, 2002 G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  11. SERVICES AND BENEFITS • Residential care – in residential homes, nursing homes and hospitals • Home care, day care, meals • Day hospital, community nursing, chiropody • Assessment and care management • Disability benefits G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  12. SOURCES OF FUNDING • Service recipients divided between NHS, social care and privately funded clients • Gross costs of social services divided between user charge and net public cost G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  13. KEY BASE ASSUMPTIONS Older population changes in line with latest official population projections Prevalence rates of disability remain unchanged Supply of informal care: by spouses reflects marital status projections, by children unchanged Patterns of care remain unchanged: no allowance for rising expectations Real unit costs and GDP rise in line with official projections: supply increases to match projected demand on this basis G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  14. PROJECTED LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURE AS PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 2002 TO 2041 G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  15. PROPORTION OF PROJECTED EXPENDITURE THAT IS PRIVATE G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  16. PROJECTED EXPENDITURE (£M) BY SOURCE OF FUNDING, 2002-2041 G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  17. PROJECTED NUMBERS OF SOCIAL CARE STAFF, 2002 TO 2041 G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  18. SCOPE OF SCENARIOS • Mortality rates – official variant projections • Disability rates – falling rates • Informal care – less care by children • Rises in real unit costs • Patterns of care – shift to home care, carer-blind services • Funding arrangements – free personal care G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  19. PROJECTED EXPENDITURE, 2041, UNDER ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT LIFE EXPECTANCY G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  20. PROJECTED EXPENDITURE, 2041, UNDER ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT FUNCTIONAL DISABILITY G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

  21. CONCLUSION • Expenditure on long-term care will need to increase significantly over the next 40 years to keep pace with demographic pressures and real rises in the unit costs of care • Expenditure projections are sensitive to assumptions about future mortality and disability rates and real rises in the unit costs of care G:\SRC\OUTPUTS\BSG2000.PPT

More Related