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AQ Tolerance Proposal

AQ Tolerance Proposal. Mod 209 – August 2008. AQ Tolerances. Provide a view of appropriate tolerances for AQ validation Looking only to exclude true outliers to minimise magnitude of failures Data used is from NDM sample information to remove any Shipper impact. EUC Band 1 – SSP population.

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AQ Tolerance Proposal

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  1. AQ Tolerance Proposal Mod 209 – August 2008

  2. AQ Tolerances • Provide a view of appropriate tolerances for AQ validation • Looking only to exclude true outliers to minimise magnitude of failures • Data used is from NDM sample information to remove any Shipper impact Theme Date Department

  3. EUC Band 1 – SSP population • Sample of 2310 sites comparing their consumption changes across three years • Produces a view of an expected AQ change if the AQ calculation reflected actual consumption Theme Date Department

  4. EUC Band 1 • Variation is consistent year on year • Bulk of the population varies between ± 25% • +100% to -80% captures 99.2%-99.8% of the changes • Suggest these may be appropriate tolerances for EUC band 1 Theme Date Department

  5. LSP EUC Bands • Current EUC band break points are, in KWh: • EUC band 2 = 73,200 to 293,000 • EUC band 3 = 293,001 to 732,000 • EUC band 4 = 732,001 to 2,196,000 • EUC band 5 = 2,196,001 to 5,860,000 • EUC band 6 = 5,860,001 to 14,650,000 • EUC band 7 = 14,650,001 to 293,000,000 • EUC band 8 = 293,000,001 to 58,600,000 • EUC band 9 ignored as these should be DM sites Theme Date Department

  6. LSP Bands 2-4 • Sample of 5,576 sites comparing their consumption changes across three years • Produces a view of an expected AQ change if the AQ calculation reflected actual consumption, as for SSP Theme Date Department

  7. EUC Band 2-4 • Variation is consistent year on year • Bulk of the population varies between ± 50% • +100% to -80% captures 98.8%-98.9% of the changes Theme Date Department

  8. Outliers for bands 2-4 • Number of outliers for bands 2-4 above 100% only varies slightly by band • (Shows % of those failing 100% tolerance by EUC band) • However the % the outliers vary by is different Theme Date Department

  9. Tolerances for bands 1-4 • Suggested tolerances are: • Band 1 +100% -80% • Band 2 +300% -80% • Band 3 +200% -80% • Band 4 +200% -80% • As these tolerances are similar and a small percentage of the population is outside band 4 suggest extending band 4 to cover all other EUC bands Theme Date Department

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